purduewx80

have heard thunder here on and off since not long after 1, but the loudest of all was in the past 10 min with some of that.

yeah, they're flying quite a bit farther east than usual to get to the 22s. taking advantage of any little gaps in the line they can to get a slew of international arrivals in.

surprised there's no flash flood watch for nnj and the city today. regardless of soil moisture outside the city, etc, there appears to be a high risk for training storms this afternoon. CAMs still supporting periodic thunderstorms beginning as early as ~1PM w/ local amounts of 3-6". looks like this morning round just off the coast is leaving behind a boundary (pseudo-warm front) that will become a focus for new storms nearby early this afternoon, in addition to what can pop up on seabreeze fronts. the next piece of energy (marked w/ the X) will focus a line of storms in the DC area that heads up this way towards early evening.

yep. ensemble approach would easily give the city 1-2" but a good number of those are showing 3-5" in swaths with off/on thunderstorms from 2-9PM.

absolute deluge at work in LIC - never heard rain from inside the office before. hearing some thunder now too.

The city may see a storm today as the upper low to our S/SW moves overhead. NJ should see widespread storms, probably same for the Hudson Valley. LI, maybe something isolated today. Tomorrow looks good for everyone.

Indeed, looks like a fun day. I keep thinking the models will go more widespread Thursday since that's when the stronger front approaches.

EWR G36KT w/ that dying shower. Rain has certainly been heavy there w/ vis as low as 1200'.

Depending on what guidance you look at, the western half of NJ and points west could have a fun day tomorrow tracking thunderstorms. There is some shortwave energy coming together to help enhance lift. Return flow develops early in the morning, but southeasterly winds will keep coastal areas milder (but more humid than today), while we watch anvil cirrus blow in from that activity. Saturday will see thunderstorms become a bit more widespread in the Northeast, largely due to increasing humidity/return flow and seabreezes developing. The city will probably miss out again while parts of LI and the interior cash in on scattered PM activity.

yeah that was nice.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md1621.html

I saw a small area of max velocities around 40 mph w/ that second storm. There is always a risk these pulsing cells produce a downburst/microburst when they collapse, but you can't just warn every thunderstorm out there.

totally unnecessary warning by OKX, yet again

there is a shot today, which HRRR has mostly been totally clueless about. there is some dry air and a warm layer aloft, but neither of these is sufficient to prevent isolated cells. already seeing some well inland, but the seabreeze fronts will focus a few nearby. only about a 20% chance for anyone in the city to see one, higher chances over eastern LI, CT, Hudson Valley and parts of NJ. take the weather you see over western PA and upstate today, and put it squarely over us tomorrow. looks like numerous storms in the afternoon hours as the weakening front/trough approach.

looks like a water spout just south of cooper's beach/southampton.

JFK up to 3.56" after this most recent deluge. It's been fun to see two surface lows pass through the area in ~12 hours.

getting some overrunning cells behind the line/cold dome in central NJ now, impressive for these parts. 850mb moisture transport:

the JFK terminal doppler and OKX are both seeing 80-90MPH winds now on far eastern lbi and entering jbi.

speaking of:

definitely. jfk on east, south shore could get pretty ugly.

nah, the warm front is now moving back south due to cold outflow from all the thunderstorms north of here. N/NE winds behind it should stay in place until the low passes later this evening. that bow that affected philly should stay south of manhattan.

yeah, mini supercells developing all over the city. also an outflow boundary moving south out of the earlier bow to our north, so some of these are more than capable of producing brief spinups.

yes, exactly.

advection is more important today. would need to be near 100F based on that sounding to get anything at all.