purduewx80

12Z HREF still showing the tornado threat, a bit farther north than the 00Z run, which makes sense with the warm frontal location and low track. Areas that keep the E-SE sfc winds will have the highest threat for a brief spinup.

yeah, the 12Z soundings were unimpressive - late evening showers/storms last night wiped things out for now. we'll be relying on moisture advection and the dynamics to get things going this afternoon. strong heating looks to continue, so that will help things out.

HREF has a strong signal for rotating storms in the area later today:

Just saw their statement on that, 100 it is.

looks like it was just W enough to have little trajectory over the bay over the past 30 min. any farther north and it would probably be 100 there.

you see the 12Z OKX? 2nd highest MUCAPE on record, though I'm wondering about that 82F dewpoint given ISP wasn't quite that high:

850 temps are 0.2C cooler this morning than yesterday. These high clouds will not last more than another hour or two, should have little to no impact. I see no reason why highs today won't be about the same as yesterday. Warmer start could mean a few more see 100 than yesterday.

83 showing on the climate summary. Might sneak below that prior to midnight, but it could be close.

Low of 84 at LGA this morning, which is a record high min for the date. Could see something lower this evening if a rogue storm passes through. Winds turn N this evening as well, so it could drop below that just prior to midnight.

if anything it made things worse by keeping the higher dewpoints around

Seabreeze got swept out of JFK for the time being, up to 99F w/ a W wind on the latest 5min obs (rounding an issue though so may be 98).

indeed. 700 temps are locally cooler over PA, NJ up to SW CT, which is why 700-500 lapse rates aren't as "good" as elsewhere. these cooler 700 temps will be where the cap is weakest, but there will be negating factors in this area due to the mid- and high clouds.

convective temp of 97 on the OKX sounding. several weak convective shortwaves over PA w/ locally cooler 700 temps as well. all this should add up to some isolated air mass storms this afternoon, including on seabreezes, around the uhi and over the mountains.

Unlikely to be a derecho, but we have to watch that cluster of storms currently over Lake Huron. That will build E/SE thru the day and could be just NW-N of the city this evening.

was just looking at these, too. check out great south bay...

The OKX 12Z sounding came in w/ a 2.47" PWAT, among the highest on record. This is the highest observed July value and 12Z observation there, and it ties for the 2nd highest on record overall.

flash flooding almost certainly will be targeting a good chunk of the city.

nice. definitely could see some 3-4h delays there later. these lines of convection are rough for nyc airports.

yep, lol. lasted all of 4-5 minutes.

got dark and is now pouring here in bed-stuy.

exactly, westerly flow showing up, so the seabreeze will be more WSW-SW, which isn't exactly cooling for most of the island. north shore could be just as hot as the city.

we'll see. like today, there should be scattered air mass storms ahead of the circulation during the afternoon, including in the NYC area.

the main energy passes through tomorrow night into first thing thursday morning, but there is a lingering weakness thru the day thursday prior to the ridge building in late thursday night. low level jet forcing and the nocturnal flare-up of these tropical remnants probably will make tomorrow night the most likely period for widespread showers and storms. sea breeze storms are probable thursday afternoon unless the NAM's backdoor front is legit. most guidance keeps that just to the n and ne.

may depend on the amount of heavy rain w/ barry's remnants tomorrow night. this could temper max temps in the 90s (instead of 100+) but would also increase the potential for 80+ DPs.

there's a synoptically- and nocturnally-induced increase in the low-level jet tonight that will help a good chunk of LI and CT cash in on tropical downpours, but be careful what you wish for. these features combined w/ 2"+ PWATs will almost always produce flash flooding. could see some wet microbursts and maybe a spin-up here or there later this evening, as well. aside from widespread heavy rainfall, it's not quite clear what will happen in the city since the transition/lull from diurnal to nocturnal forcing occurs nearby. should be some interesting radar loops this evening at the least.