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purduewx80

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Everything posted by purduewx80

  1. purduewx80
    have seen 2 of these in bed-stuy...some cold ass raindrops.
  2. purduewx80
    Could see a brief thunderstorm the next few hours as potent upper level energy, decent lapse rates and moisture advection associated w/ the low-level jet sweep through the region. They've been more widespread upstate and isolated in Pennsylvania so far. Don't blink or you might miss them - they're moving along at 60KT to the E/NE.
  3. purduewx80
    Ventrice's latest update (clients/IBM mets only) suggests you'll enjoy Jan-Feb. Lights out after this weekend for a bit though.
  4. purduewx80
  5. purduewx80
    Our Sunday-Monday storm has been an impressive one on the West Coast.
  6. purduewx80
    There's some light snow to begin, but 850s are a torch at 144h. Could be promising after that though.
  7. purduewx80
    Models have backed off what they were showing a few days ago. Probably 30-40MPH gusts from what I'm seeing today.
  8. purduewx80
    The NE Pac warm blob has me leaning towards a blend of last winter and 2013-2014/2014-2015, so I like the 30-40" range for NYC at this point.
  9. purduewx80
    It really is uncanny how the entire meteorological fall will end up similar to last year, at least in terms of temperatures.
  10. purduewx80
    Any posters in Montauk? There's a nice cluster of thunderstorms about to come in from the south.
  11. purduewx80
    Low pressure coming ashore in the West late Tuesday has the potential to break November pressure records out there.
  12. purduewx80
    BUFKIT suggests 40-45KT gusts (LGA below):
  13. purduewx80
    With tomorrow's rapidly intensifying low trending NW and nearly over the city now, we're likely to see some heavy rain during the morning hours. This will be yet another system with a 500mb jet max putting us in the sweet spot for lift. Lapse rates are nothing to sneeze at and may allow for a thunderstorm or two in the area, as well.
  14. purduewx80
    waaaay too early to say given the model volatility. if the 50/50 holds in place, it could be one of those systems that works zonally across the country even as the gulf ridge perks up. sunday is a fair estimate on the timing but that could easily change, too.
  15. purduewx80
    Wednesday looks to be up in the 60s, enjoy it because Thu-Sat may struggle to reach 40 (with wind).
  16. purduewx80
    yep....puts us in NW'ly flow and should help sustain some of the colder wx that comes in on thanksgiving into at least the first few days of december. imo.
  17. purduewx80
    I'm not convinced the longitude of troughs/ridges has been sorted out yet. Past 4 00Z EPS runs below:
  18. purduewx80
    It's interesting to look back at how that evolved last year on http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/ - it appears that dip last year was from a ridge that was transient and only closed off for a couple of days. The hemispheric wave pattern was also quite a bit different this time last year. 2018 2019 EPS fcst: Certainly will be interesting to see how this evolves over the next few weeks.
  19. purduewx80
    One big difference so far this year is that a true -NAO block and 50/50 low is developing. Although these will probably break down past the first week of December, it bodes well for a potential return during our January-February climo. Another nice takeaway from the next ~2 weeks is that SE Canada will be building deep snow cover, so we'll have a close source region for cold low-level air moving forward.
  20. purduewx80
    The Koreas and Hokkaido have open water between them and a cold continent, so their snowfall often comes from sea/ocean-effect.
  21. purduewx80
    12Z UKMET says watch the 2nd wave this weekend. Friday's trough forces it farther S/E such that cold air and precip overlap.
  22. purduewx80
    I'm of the opinion -NAO blocking will be more likely this winter due to being near the solar minimum and having some of the warmest water in the Arctic in the Davis Strait. Last year the + SST anomalies were more impressive over the Barents Sea (N of Europe/Russia) and, like this year, near Alaska.
  23. purduewx80
    yeah, the SE ridge definitely makes appearances on all the guidance. really not much point in talking about what one set of model runs shows in 10+ days this time of year (or any?). there has been a lot of volatility in the ops and ensembles.
  24. purduewx80
    They do?
  25. purduewx80
    This is the feature that should help develop heavier showers Monday night. We'll be in the left front quad of a curved 500 jet streak, with significant diffluence aloft and steep mid-level lapse rates moving in.
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