pretty incredible heat wave showing up on 12Z guidance, but there are timing differences between the op runs and their ensembles. the spread is anywhere from sept 29 thru oct 4, with peak temps in the mid-90s suggested at the usual hot spots. how far east and north the heat makes it will depend on the surface high being centered to the south of one's location, allowing for some form of westerly flow. as we've seen recently, high heights do not translate to heat if easterly flow prevails.
the apparent lack of rain between then and now, already dry soils and surface temps exceeding guidance the past few days suggest the potential is there for historic heat across a large portion of the mid-atlantic and perhaps parts of the northeast near the beginning of the new month. overwhelming ensemble and model support leads to higher than normal confidence for a hot outcome at this range. still, plenty could change between now and then.