purduewx80

Yup, there have been several strikes in NE Mass, SE NH and coastal ME since 10Z. BGR reported +TSRA in the past hour.

Reference Sunday's "surprise" rain and "NAM win" - once it locked onto the development of the gulf low (to-be-Nestor), the EPS mean was consistently farther north with its trek into the Northeast. It more or less was a good forecast tool from last Wednesday (108 hours out). The NAM was wildly inconsistent in its precip amounts. It was often too far north with the 1"+ rain predictions and on many runs suggested winds would gust 30-40MPH on most of Long Island. I guess the point of all this is, taking an ensemble approach to forecasting is wise when there's poor model agreement. Goes without saying, but this will become more and more important as we head into the cold season.

no kidding, would've been a nightmare accumulation forecast.

Almost every model has some light rain in the afternoon, but not nearly as heavy as what the NAM indicates.

Agreed. I'm of the opinion that if this storm occurred in 2-3 months, many would focus on whether or not one of those fcst meso lows became the primary synoptic low. A lot of snow weenies would've been sorely disappointed when it ended up tracking from near NYC to NH instead of arcing offshore and into the ME coast.

There were quite a few 60+ mph gusts on LI behind the low, including a 76 at Breezy Point and 83 at Stony Brook (both of those obviously need to be checked for accuracy), but it lines up with what a lot of models were showing in a narrow corridor.

There was obviously a CAA and isallobaric boost, but I don't think you can definitively say it wasn't a sting jet when looking at both radar data and WV imagery. BDL winds didn't gust until after 06Z/2AM when this feature was moving through behind the sfc low.

Showing up nicely on the PHL and DIX radars. Doesn't quite look like a classic sting jet on WV yet, but it sure does on radar. Looping that radar reveals evaporating precip in the core of that wind field.

multiple stations along the jersey shore gusting over 50 mph now, as high as 59 mph in little egg inlet. manhattan beach also reported a gust to 49mph in one of the heavier showers about 30 minutes ago.

looking really impressive on the HRRR and RAP; both showing W/NW 50-60KT gust potential somewhere between 11-2 tonight.

The mountains do tricky things to the pressure field, but the dominant low appears to be taking shape on the lee side trof over central NC as of 15Z. Pressure falls are increasing over the Mid-Atlantic, which is exactly where this low will end up tracking later today.

nice! the "octobomb" storm back in 2010 really stands out over the middle of the country, as well.

Generally speaking somewhere from ORH to CON.

<1% chance

meh, there's a good 850 jet focus there and an MCV over GA supporting it, but it's pretty clear the sfc low will develop much farther north

Wherever convection is at play on LI will have some 50KT gust potential. It would be unusual not to see gusts like this with the low-level winds forecast (~950-925mb) and a rapidly deepening low in the area. I suspect most stations in the area will have G40-45KT after midnight and again tomorrow as the cold air moves in.

There's definitely a surface reflection near CHS as of 12Z, but convection is displaced off to its SE. Broad pressure falls across the Carolinas and southern VA.

Will be interesting to watch PTC 17 in the EPAC the next 24-48 hours - it's part of that Central American gyre some have noted recently. Most overnight guidance allows it to redevelop across the Bay of Campeche quickly, enough for it to become a tropical storm on some guidance as it approaches the US Gulf Coast. 00Z EPS tracks below: This system may ruin our chances at 80-degree weather early next week as it gets caught up in the southwesterly flow ahead of our next big frontal passage, centered on next ~Tuesday. On the flip side it could also help wipe out our recent rainfall deficit.

I think it really is that simple. This jet structure does not favor significant low pressure development off the SE coast. Agree w/ Scott that the RGEM makes the most sense synoptically.

The moisture feeding into this low is in the upper echelon of what we usually see this time of year, supporting the heavy rain threat. The 12Z JAX PWAT climo is below, but LCH and LIX were also impressive.

The highest winds will occur wherever the warm sector sets up (especially from 950-925mb). A shallow surface inversion is likely for most areas near the coast, but this can be overcome by convection based just above the surface. Deeper inversions inland should prevent stronger winds there Wed PM but everyone will see W/NW wind gusts Thursday. The SST anomalies will become more important later in the winter; the Gulf Stream positioned so close to a cold continent acts as a natural baroclinic zone for coastal storms.

No doubt. I think convection (w/ or w/o lightning) will probably be the culprit for damaging winds, in addition to the potential sting jet. Both seem to favor LI and points east-northeast along the coast of southern New England. The Gulf Stream and anomalous warmth to its north likely will be factoring into the convective potential.

ND has 2.9% tree cover vs. 72% in MA.

i am in no way saying it isn't interesting meteorologically, but they are used to having blizzards. happens nearly every year, usually multiple times.

it matters in terms of impacts to humanity.