Albedoman

Freezing at Williamsport, 53 degrees at my house. Wow, talk about a warm tongue of air? 150 miles makes a big difference. Its too bad we are on the wrong side all the time this year. I am glad we got some rain even though it just ponding on the surface ready to freeze solid by tomorrow night. The creeks are slightly out of their banks but that is because it is 100% runoff on frozen soils. It seems the rainfall and snow fall are useless right now except for the trout streams.. One thing I can really say however, the ski resorts are taking a royal ass kicking tonight. Many will probably shut down many trails early if the Valentines day storm chances busts

I was begging to say that. 10 days out on the GFS is just complete fantasyland at this point. GFS has been pushing back these storms every five days. I still think the Presidents day maybe promising before the next major pattern change and hoping the AO tanks

I agree with Iceman. This has been the mother of donut holes for the LV. The LV has been screwed every way it can in this pattern, north south east and west and every model today continued to show the continuation of that fricking donut hole in s central pa in the 10-15 day models. I will hope for a Presidents day storm event because that is all I see right now.

My Philly forum friends: Memphis Tn and eastern Arkansas is currently taking the brunt of this ice storm. Honestly, this maybe the worst ice storm they ever experienced since 1994 and maybe even worse than that. Here are some traffic cams from the link below. Its really bad already and the storm has just started. MLGW has had over 15,000 people without power in the past hour and if I was betting man, more than half of the city and metro area will be without power for days if not weeks. IMHO, this will be a catastrophic storm event for them the way it is panning out. There maybe a million people out of power for weeks down there. My sister in law still lives down there and two transformers just blew within the hour near her house. The media should be concentrating on this situation right now. https://www.localmemphis.com/gallery/weather/severe-weather/ice-storm-memphis-mid-south-1994-greenville-mississippi/522-aeadd648-43b4-425e-a9e7-856dfc8f17c9 https://buzzcam.net/MI40.html

this is why I am concerned The surface temps are are way too cold and this is my proof. The rain and dense fog will not do anything as the it will be cloudy and fog sublimates the snow which affects the air temps and keeps the air much cooler. Weather model air temps do not accurately depict the entire picture of what the surface temps are. Many people will be surprised how quick the flash freeze will occur. This graph says it all

If that is indeed their concern, that is understandable. Thanks but Carbon and Monroe are under the fog advisory too? It comes down that Mt Holly really are still not sure on total ice accumulations. The confidence levels are not high for reaching winter warning ice accumulation levels but it is the flash freeze that changes the ball game. Thats my entire point and it should warrant at least a winter storm watch with mentioning in the watch that they are unsure of ice accumulations. . They can always drop it later periods.

FWIW, Mt Holly will likely have egg on its face by Friday evening. No way in hell do you issue winter storm watches for Carbon and Monroe in this current situation and not include the LV. You live by the model, you die by the model. The NAM has a known warm bias in this range and they should already know this. The GFS cold should not be ignored and the Euro/HRRR still have no idea on to handle this storm event. Physical Geography plays a huge part in this current situation and anyone who lives between the S Mts (the fall line) and Blue Mts will see ice. 30+ years of historical weather/ geography experience is telling me how this will unfold in this situation. The fall line plays a big part, plain and simple. We will most likely go a winter storm warning issued on Friday afternoon, too late IMHO. The sad thing there are going to be a ton of accidents, especially on the untreated roads because drivers simply ignore advisories and heed warnings and watches. You cannot stop four wheel vehicles on flash frozen surfaces and the drivers in our area have not seen this possibility in many years. The other sad issue is that ice accumulation under .25 inch does not affect most properties or damages trees. However .25 to .5 inch of freezing rain on a flash frozen road surface will kill people. Its time to be proactive and not reactive. By the time they issue a warning, the roads will be full of drivers, especially trucks. The trees however will still be standing. This is is not my first time seeing this scenario unfold. A simple winter storm watch would have sufficed. No body hurt. Enough warning to get people off the roads by Friday evening. Sorry for the rant

IMHO sometimes too much info in the pin point forecasting is dangerous. This is a fine example of this in this mornings forecast as seen below. Wording of the forecast leads to believe there will be no problem driving around the the LV. Could not be further from the truth. For one, I am real glad the rainfall totals are up there but this is 80-100% strictly runoff event and not getting into the ground and recharging as the ground is still frozen. All this winter storm event will do is raise the stream levels to bankfull and minor road ponding. Any thawing of the first few inches of soil will have the door quickly slammed shut and be refrozen by Saturday morning. Worst of all, it appears Friday evening into Saturday will be accident central in the LV spreading south as the roads freeze up quickly after the frontal passage and any snow and sleet that does fall will get compacted down. Going to be a real ice skating rink for sure. The big race will be on going to actually how fast PADOT can place salt on the road before it freezes. With no brining available because of the heavy rain potential, only immediate salt placement is going to help. Timing will be everything and I would not want to be driving anywhere early Friday evening around here, especially on the rural roads. Even though this may be only an winter advisory level event, I would recommend MT Holly at least issue a winter storm watch to get the public aware of this severe road surface icing potential. This is one storm event that MT Holly needs to be on the precautionary side and actually accept being in err on it not happening rather than take a wait and see reactionary attitude. Residents in our area have not experienced this flash freeze potential situation in a dozen years or so. Timing is everything. To sum it up, there are way too many party goers on Friday night around here and I think they will be surprised how quickly the roads will turn to crap. Thursday Night Rain. Low around 31. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Friday Freezing rain before 1pm, then a chance of sleet between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of snow after 4pm. High near 35. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

In this environment dealing with these chaotic weather models, this is my go to law firm:

I am so fricking tired of seeing almost every mid range model run in this progressive pattern showing the donut hole over the LV and LSV, no matter where the LP is situated , on the coast, as an App Runner and now an Ohio flyer. These models are so pathetic now and I have been doing this for 30 years. The combo of the NAM and Euro at 36 - 60 hours has usually been pretty reliable. This combo has even been an upheaval. This chaos is resulting in issuance of late warning or advisory events which causes more panic/weenism than anything else and the media hype is unbelievable. We have to create a better and definitely more reliable mid range model for proper guidance. Lets start by taking the avg of the GFS , Euro , GEM total precips and temps and actually calling it the RECON model instead of the worthless model called ICON. LOL

I lived and experienced driving through 1994, one ice/small snow storm event after another. Salt was in short supply. When 2-3 inches of sleet and freezing rain gets packed down on the untreated roads, its a losing battle , especially when it snows and temps drop into the teens for highs. The sun cannot melt the packed down icy surface. My main concern for this event is that a flash turnover from rain to freezing rain will occur for several hours then going over to heavy sleet. Valentines 2007 was a nightmare that I will never forget . I live a few miles from 78, on Rt 100. I got the hell off that road that afternoon and the sleet was literally glued to every surface imaginable. The PADOT policy of waiting until you get 2-3 inches of snow to drop the blade DOES NOT WORK with sleet. You must get that crap off the road and salt the living hell out of it to make it to a dough paste out of the accumulated sleet on the surface. Again I will stay with my thoughts above in bold. The current 18Z runs of the NAM are usually warmer at 60-84 and I expect they will become colder by tomorrow 12Z runs in this storm event. The Euro is trying to adjust and the GFS is still in the ball game with frontal positioning. Its basically all depending on HP strength and how quick and strong the LP develops in the lower Ohio Valley. We will have a good picture by Wednesday 0z runs.

I would not trust the Euro right now- to wishy washy. The GFS has the right idea but way overdone. Somewhere in the middle - light rain to 4-6 hours of freezing rain/sleet then to wet snow for the LV. Very typical scenario for an "Ohio Valley Flyer" storm event. Usual results -- is a 4-6 inch snow event for us- higher snow accumulations near the Williamsport area . I also call this "salt drainer storm event" as municipal salt supplies can take a hell of a hit in a hurry for road treatment, especially if the cold hits hard afterwards. This upcoming pattern definitely reminds me of 1994 when I drove on snow/ice rutted roads for a week to work. I remember 222 / Hamilton Blvd was a complete mess where you actually had to drive along the curbs to find snow to drive on when you came to the intersections to stop as the rest of the intersection was packed down and rutted ice. The snow drought areas of Ohio should do well on this event too.

I posted this yesterday in the philly forum FWIW. I see no changes to my initial thoughts after the 12Z runs for the LV/Berks area. I would not trust the Euro right now- to wishy washy. The GFS has the right idea but way overdone. Somewhere in the middle - light rain to 4-6 hours of freezing rain/sleet then to wet snow for the LV. Very typical scenario for an "Ohio Valley Flyer" storm event. Usual results -- is a 4-6 inch snow event for us- higher snow accumulations near the Williamsport area . I also call this "salt drainer storm event" as municipal salt supplies can take a hell of a hit in a hurry for road treatment, especially if the cold hits hard afterwards. This upcoming pattern definitely reminds me of 1994 when I drove on snow/ice rutted roads for a week to work. I remember 222 / Hamilton Blvd was a complete mess where you actually had to drive along the curbs to find snow to drive on when you came to the intersections to stop as the rest of the intersection was packed down and rutted ice. The snow drought areas of Ohio should do well on this event too.

I would not trust the Euro right now- to wishy washy. The GFS has the right idea but way overdone. Somewhere in the middle - light rain to 4-6 hours of freezing rain/sleet then to wet snow for the LV. Very typical scenario for an "Ohio Valley Flyer" storm event. Usual results -- is a 4-6 inch snow event for us- higher snow accumulations near the Williamsport area . I also call this "salt drainer storm event" as municipal salt supplies can take a hell of a hit in a hurry for road treatment, especially if the cold hits hard afterwards. This upcoming pattern definitely reminds me of 1994 when I drove on snow/ice rutted roads for a week to work. I remember 222 / Hamilton Blvd was a complete mess where you actually had to drive along the curbs to find snow to drive on when you came to the intersections to stop as the rest of the intersection was packed down and rutted ice. The snow drought areas of Ohio should do well on this event too. Speaking of snow drought- can you see the donut hole for us in this map? truly amazing.

currently the ground is frozen 2-3 feet right now. There is less than 3 inches of snow on most surfaces except where piled from the plows. Any snow melt until Thursday when the precip arrives will be done by sublimation, not by precipitation. The snow will simply be transferred into a gas and be gone. For the areas that did get heavier snow, the infamous "fog eater process" will set up and a significant reduction of the snowpack will significant before the heavier precip arrives. I expect dense fog advisories out for those specific areas later in the week as the warm advects over the existing snow pack. For us in the LV and Berks area, we have no little snow pack to melt off even if rains over an inch. Most of snowpack will simply be already melted or evaporated before Thursday in the sunshine and because the warm advected air is still too dry. Evaporative melting of the snow is extremely high right now, especially for the snow crystals that we got in the last storm. You would think that just because the ground is bare by Thursday, that any rain fall will be able to soak into the ground . Your synopsis would be absolutely incorrect. The ground remains frozen below the first few inches of the soil horizon and any liquid runoff will run directly into the creeks/stormwater systems. The .5 to 1 inch of precip will be composed of road salt laden runoff going into the streams only to raise them back to near normal levels as the base flows have been significantly down since December. The first few inches of the soil may thaw, but that's it. Then we repeat the frozen cycle all over again on Friday and the rest of the week as temps drop back into the single digits. You want proof? here is the drought page for your purview. Even though it is a minor drought condition , La Nina weather patterns that are waning and diminishing in our area historically do not bode well for sufficient groundwater recharge in the spring months https://www.drought.gov/location/18062

Lehigh Valley to Harrisburg Donut Hole central. Thats why I am worried about a drought

anafront conditions bigtime. Flooding rain hell no. Mt Holly needs to stop talking about flooding as the GOM is not open for business. Snowmelt- what a joke 8 in of snow .50 liquid equivalent in the snow pack. For me 3 in of snow .20 or less. That will not lead to flooding. Ice jams, maybe in upper Delaware and Susquehanna? Thats the only flood threat. I see the precip changing to freezing rain and sleet and then a few inches of snow on top after .25 in of rain. Not a drought buster as the soils remain deeply frozen, especially after the next few nights.

the orographic lifting is taking over right now. The atmosphere is playing the sponge card right now squeezing every bit of available moisture out the atmospheric profiles. The flake size is much bigger just like we were in the sierras with big fluffy flakes rather then dendritic crystals we had all night. However, not worried- an inch or so more and the dry air battle will be over as it will push over the Blue and eventually South mountains and end quickly by noon. The temps should drop to near zero tonight. Mt Holly should revise the overnight lows as many temps are near in the low teens even in the LV and single digits over Hazleton area. With the fresh snow cover and the winds finally dying down by morning, I see below zero temps for many areas.

Here it is friday and my Wednesday forecast is still on track-- Nothing new. First call is usually the best call. Heavier bands can still screw up my forecast but this now becomes a now cast event after 6pm ================================================================================================================================= well, it's Wednesday evening,and the storm on the short range models is an out to sea storm, just like I called it. Very little impact to our area with the major accumulating snow east of the NJ turnpike. I see us getting between 3-5 inches at the very most for the entire storm event unless a major change comes to the models. in the next 24- hours which is still a possibility that I will not rule out. Most of the snow will fall Sat morning. As the arctic front comes though on Friday, light snow will break out in the morning to lunch time. It will be snowing lightly all afternoon and into Friday night. 1-2 inches is possible by midnight. if the roads are treated -no problem. Winter storm watches will most likely go out for counties to the south and especially east of the LV by tomorrow afternoon. For us- a wait and see situation as we are very borderline right now. I just wish we we could have a plowable snow event of 4-6 inches but even that appears unlikely right now.

I agree with your post but not the criteria. After this snow event Mt Holly really needs to be initiating a study to change the criteria for issuing warning and watches for the entire LV ( including Berks County) and northern Bucks and Montgomery counties. Nearly 2 million people now live in this area alone. Setting arbitrary warning criteria should be based on population and its density. This area has experienced the fastest and most growth in PA in the past five years. That in itself warrants the change not to mention placing the LV as most transportation dependent industry in the entire North east US by making the LV the logistics capital for the entire NE based on warehouse/distribution centers. Lastly, the physical geography with incorporating the actual location of the fall line should signify a change but that topic is for another day. https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/pennsylvania/admin

Ironic, they rely heavily on the Euro models in the discussion but fail to warn almost a million people who live "on the fringe". The greater Lehigh Valley metro area has a larger population than most areas in the midwest. Makes no sense. The Lehigh Valley has the most dangerously traveled road in PA - I-78/RT 22/ RT 309 corridor. Its already snowing and Mt Holly should at least be precautionary and not reactionary as there are way too many residents/drivers who rely on an accurate warning system. The Lehigh Valley metro is not hicksville rural areas anymore and they need to be more precautionary, thats all. The "I told you so syndrome" is about to come out of the closet again. Sorry for my rant but 25+ years of seeing this same scenario unfolding is frustrating.

I am sorry but MT Holly has blown this one. Not even issuing winter weather advisory for a metro area of almost 1 million people now. It is just plain wrong when several models are indicating snow accumulation approaching 4-6 inches for southern Lehigh County. They have done this before by issuing winter storm warning too late in the ballgame, I would have put up a winter storm watch and a winter weather advisory at the minimum. Many people in Berks, Lehigh and County are going to be upset and tons of accidents as a result. Just saying history repeating itself.

yep, I agree this year. Allentown is having to trouble just cracking 6 inches

I agree the 12Z runs tomorrow will be the final nail in the coffin. Its been a longtime to wait this close to the actual storm event to even have any confidence. Usually the Nam/Euro combo works well but they are even jumping around.