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Albedoman

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  1. Albedoman
    After seeing this morning NAM runs- my original forecast 1-3 in of snow for the LV northern Bucks Montgomery areas yesterday morning seems the best outcome. I have got learn to stick to my original guns. The ground will be simply too wet an and warm to support higher amounts as it really needs to snow hard to even accumulate. The ridges around the LV will see some accumulation especially Bear Creek ski resort area in Macungie. It really does not matter anyway as this stuff as most of it will be gone by the evening when the sun pops out. 2-3 inches of rain will really get the feet wet for vegetation before a good cold snap hits later in december. I think the 40 mph wind gusts with the heavy rain will feel awful this evening too. Personally rather see a good line of convectivness with a squall line thunderstorm. It seems that we have not had a thunderstorm in 4 months. 1-3 inch snow may seem a lot now to ask for but asking for a good t storm seems to be more of a challenge
  2. Albedoman
    my quote for this morning still holds. This old geezer here is telling you all that this storm is dynamically an open door policy for snow for extreme snow growth generation- I have seen this situation unfold a dozen times in my 45 years of forecasting as a hobby. Half dollar flakes and bigger- pancake flakes? as the snow growth should be incredible for some areas as well as for the higher elevations. The key is whether the cold can be sucked down quick enough for the precip to change to allow for accumulation and if the LP coastal forms more east in the Chesapeake Bay. Thunder snow maybe? But it could fall apart if the LP forms further west. I would love to see 2-4 inch rates of snow per hour but I really think a good thumping of snow for a few hours at 2-3 " or more per hour is all that can get squeezed out before the LP races off to the NE. I Any snow will be pretty as the limbs will have a nice paste job with the gusty winds in place. The changeover will be quick too.
  3. Albedoman
    a very clear sign that tomorrow afternoon/evening is going to be a royal rumbler with flooding rains. The atmosphere is loading up for the show with all of the warm air advection going on. Seen this scenario unfold many times in December. T storms, squall lines and very damaging winds coming our way. I will state emphatically right now that since this storm will be so dynamic with all of this moisture loading up at this time of the year and the fact it is already in the mid 40's at my house this morning., we will be under severe t- storm watch tomorrow afternoon , mostly for damaging straight line winds. The flooding rains will be the main by product this time but you will not forget about the winds. The front is so dynamic that I also say half dollar size snowflakes with a 1-3 inches of snow and very gusty winds will be on our doorstep Monday morning is very possible scenario for the LV and northern Montgomery/Bucks area.
  4. Albedoman
    If many of the posters are like me, we are all sick and tired of looking at model runs that indicate snow at one run and 12 hrs later zilch. The only model run worth looking at this time is the NAM/ HRR at 36 hours. I am also so sick of seeing daily forecasts bust in the past several months for sky conditions as well. P Sunny does not mean 98% cloudy. So many wasted days under cloudy skies the last four months that were supposed to be mostly sunny. Its like we live in the far west as high cirrus/altostratus clouds covering the entire sky with a milky appearance is rare for us but has happen a dozen times in the past month. It does bring nice sunset colors though. I am ready for a good old fashion Miller A storm. The GOM has been shut down for so long as we could not even get a decent tropical storm this year up in our area. I am telling you this, as the old timer of the forum, this current weather pattern has all of the appearances of another type of Superstorm of 93 forming. It was dead city around here until that storm formed in the northern GOM near the panhandle of Fla. I believe another storm will form in the same area this winter and present the same issues. Not quite as stong but the pattern is leaning in that direction. Just hoping for some snow before Christmas. The Dec 18-21 time period looks promising but the event keeps being kicked down the road. I am hoping or least a few clippers this year too to keep the topping fresh
  5. Albedoman
    yes its only one model run but the writing is all over the wall. Dec 5-8 usually is the first accumulating snowfall event for the area--- aka Pearl harbor day snow bombing run. This year is no different. I will be more hopeful if I see this same scenario unfolding as below on the model runs on Friday. These models have been hinting some type of snow event for the last week in the same time frame but they keep appearing and disappearing on each model run.
  6. Albedoman
    The last two days of model runs have really gone downhill for snow production in the LV in the first week of December . I hope that changes after this storm passes. The 10 minutes of light sleet this morning should have been called "mood Pellets"
  7. Albedoman
    The evapotranspiration rates have been negligible the last few weeks as the colder nights reaching dew points have set in. In other words, not much of the stream flow is being utilized from the lack of intense heat now. The second main reason is that leaf photosynthesis production as ceased, thus ground water water is not being pulled out the soil for the tree roots. The combination has help keep the stream flows going. Tonights rain is a lifesaver and helps get the trees feet wet before the soil freezes in the next two weeks plus keep wildfire threats down.
  8. Albedoman
    Channel 69 news ran with this BS tonight. Boy the weenies are coming to the surface now. https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/lehighvalley/69-news-meteorologist-discusses-european-weather-model-forecasting-december-snow-in-lehigh-valley-that-took/article_7af2db2c-8263-11ee-bfee-7b74ff14fc43.html
  9. Albedoman
    well I posted this on saturday- guess what Channel 69 picks it up this evening and runs with the story with a video too LMAO big time now. https://www.wfmz.com/news/area/lehighvalley/69-news-meteorologist-discusses-european-weather-model-forecasting-december-snow-in-lehigh-valley-that-took/article_7af2db2c-8263-11ee-bfee-7b74ff14fc43.html
  10. Albedoman
    for the ultimate snow weenie in all of us. This was pushed out in the EC models for snow amounts at Christmas. Give me a break. Talk about a dream run. This BS run beats all of the EC runs for the weenies. One hell of a Christmas wish. Having fun LMAO
  11. Albedoman
    lots of raking to do on Wednesday as the 30 mph wind gusts from the passing cold front really does a number on what leave are left on the trees. on Tuesday through Tuesday night . We sure could use an inch of rain right now too.
  12. Albedoman
    expect a bunch of mangled flakes around 4-5 am maybe a dusting?
  13. Albedoman
    just talked to relatives in Milwaukee- getting pounded with snow this afternoon and evening - a few inches pretty crappy Halloween.
  14. Albedoman
    MY leaf color forecast is right on schedule based on Tuesdays forecast with Frost. Late next week will be peak color after the frost. Most of the leaves will fall of by election day with windy days. the piles will be high as they will all fall off at the same time.
  15. Albedoman
    greenskeeper would give you a weenie tag for such a statement LOL
  16. Albedoman
    I am so sick of these debris clouds and showers showing up at my doorstep when sunny skies are in the forecast and zero percent chance of rain. Cannot get anything done
  17. Albedoman
    
  18. Albedoman
    anyone west of quakertown nothing. I have had less than .10 in the entire event- drizzle thats it. The south mountain range upsloping is destroying any rain to the west- physical geography doing a number on rainfall totals. I hate these hybrid storm events. Bring back the sun.
  19. Albedoman
  20. Albedoman
    Now, comes campfire time. With the rain gone after Friday, the grass growing like gangbusters, it's back to enjoying fall weather and garden activities in upcoming next few weeks. LR models indicate a prolong mild dry period with highs in the low to mid 80's too. With the warmer weather, the leaves should stay on the trees longer too. Looks like the majority leaf raking will not happen until after Halloween this year unless we get a cold/windy shot near the end of the month.
  21. Albedoman
    Lee is OTS but nigel/ophelia - direct hit at NYC in the GFS 12Z run. The hype may start soon
  22. Albedoman
    sometimes both sides have to realize the truth and get over their differences. I gave them a way out to approach their differences without all of us reading the results. Everyone is in this forum because of how the weather affects them personally. Climatologists are no different, they just need a different room to play in. Lol
  23. Albedoman
    "Hi Mike...not the best post in Ray's history....I hope he apologizes to the forum. We should never ever devolve on a weather forum to the level of name calling and personal insults like that. I think we can all agree on that!" OMG, 45 years of data gathering for others to enjoy and 60+ years living on this earth- crunching numbers to prove a climatological point is not just what weather is really about. Enjoying the actual daily weather change in our atmosphere by mother nature and how it affects or daily activities is what this specific thread is all about. Weather is not just about numerology, statistics and for climatology records to drive home personal viewpoints of someones's hypothesis of local or regional climate change, its all about the personal experience of the specific weather event itself. As a retired physical geographer with an atmospheric science degree, I can tell you what personally drives me- living through any type of weather event that mother nature can throw at me and being able to share to my friends, family and other colleagues my thoughts and personal experiences of that particular weather event. I guess that is why Mt. Holly wishes to hear the opinions of each storm event from an official weather spotters like me and not just precip/temp data. Fighting over number crunching is ridiculous and pointless unless you are true climatologist wanting to prove any type of hypothesis. I would suggest Ray or you start your own thread on local or regional climatology and leave the bickering of crunching numbers in that specific thread to prove a personal local climate change hypothesis, such as elevation or even ALBEDO dependencies---lol . Thanks guys
  24. Albedoman
    synopsis for today. Hit 94 here in Lower Macungie. First thundershower at 1:30 pm few drops of rain most of the t storm went NW toward Schnecksville. Second round- outflow boundary with gust front at 5pm. Biggest wind storm in a while. 40 Mph gusts with several dead ash trees falling in the woods behind my house. At 5:45pm , the line of t storms finally came though with dime size hail, lots of lighting and heavy rain. Another round of t- storms came though about 30 minutes ago- nice lighting show. Last look at guage was nearly an inch or more of very welcomed rainfall. Will be spending tomorrow afternoon cleaning up the debris from the gust front. Leaves are everywhere.
  25. Albedoman
    The race is on in the GFS models. Who can get here in our region first? The midwestern trough or Hurricane Lee? Right now, latest model runs the last 24 hours is leaning for steering the midwestern trough into Quebec much sooner. The quicker that trough moves, the more blocky the low pressure becomes in the Canadian maritimes thus forcing Hurricane Lee to hit the east coast in our region. Realistically, small changes in speed in the upper air flow for this trough will make all the difference in the world for this hurricane path. We really will not know until 3-5 days out. Its just like predicting a nor'easter for our area right now. If this situation and current weather pattern continues, it is a tell tale sign for this upcoming winter as we will be hugging the model runs to death with many late night 00z model run synopsis by all posters of how these numerous coastal storms will pan out. The important model run for this Hurricane is next Monday nights 00Z run. The hype will begin over the weekend
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