JVscotch

Hey Will, I know a lot of us appreciate you posting various maps. Please keep it up, especially if it’s an event you enjoy tracking along with us!

This storm is different for us due to the phasing; which dramatically increases the chances of decent temperature shifts (either colder or warmer) depending on degree of phasing. Since the NAM continues to trend towards more of a phase, I think it could adjust colder if that trend continues. It should have a better handle on things later tomorrow.

6z Euro definitely already showing what would lead to a snowier outcome down the road IMO compared to 00z. Less troughing in the northwest US, more press of the trough over the north and eastern US and the digging shortwave over southwest US. All looked better.

Yes and no. One way to look at it is the kicker remains in place and even though the main closed low is a bit further east, there is now more separation between it and the kicker. So possibly this gives it room to dig enough prior to the coast to bring up a strengthening low. It’s why the ridge is better as well.

Crazy cool how the NAO has continued to prove more negative as we get closer in time and now more blocking showing up around Greenland on all models so far for 12z. The last few days it has seemed like we were losing the NAO to get EPO ridging but now maybe some NAO help too.

My gut says we don’t. 1988-1989 was a strong La’Niña vs last year’s El Niño. Last year didn’t get a chance to really do its magic but these shifts with the La’Nina to be closer to neutral, the anomalies beneath equatorial surface and the interesting MJO activity earlier, I think we are just getting started. I doubt wall-to-wall cold but the “best case scenario” that this winter had, even though was a lower percentage chance when starting the month, looks to be occurring hopefully. Will need to monitor the patterns and trends to see if cold keeps winning out and how some of these storms behave over the next few weeks.

I think that trend down on the map in the past week is another “brief dip” that’s about to bounce up significantly if the upcoming pattern comes close to fruition.

How many of the neutral years were preceded by El Niños?

18z Icon actually trended better and shows snow NW of the cities and getting very close to a changeover for a bit further east.

I saw decent flurries this morning in Gambrills around 11 am or so

Interesting. Though the U.S has a lot more lift like the stronger years. Generally with your thoughts though for the further west forcing will help us win more times this winter compared to normal or the warmer/stronger years, especially as we head into mid-winter.

I felt like 2013-2014 had it’s fair share of cold powder but I know it was mixed with a couple wetter events.

The upper level low in the second and bigger phase of the February 10th storm had temps drop to upper teens/low 20s and produced 10-12” just east/north east of dc. That was an awesome event and had strong winds.

I’m quite shocked how unstable it is outside already. May have the highest cape values this early compared to any other time this summer that I can remember. Even mid-level lapse rates aren’t too shabby. Shear could be better of course but definitely decent parameters in place. I haven’t really been following this event too closely outside of chance of storms/rain over several days.

I think most are talking the second half of spring into half of June. Usually we start feeling summer temps in May, but not this year. Definitely a cooler start. But July turned around in comparison for sure.