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Everything posted by kvegas-wx

  1. Dogs peed and came running back to the door. Paw pinching, tail biting cold out there tonight. Winter is definitely on the way! Looks like the entire forum is taking the under tonight.
  2. While do I feel like we are standing on an active railway with a blindfold and headphones on? The uncertainty is large with this one!
  3. If this thing overperforms the triad region is doomed. .75 of ZR, after all the tree damage over the last 90 days or so would be lights out for a week. My neighborhood alone has trees already overhanging roadways that desperately need to be cut by the county. I truly hope this comes in dry like the GFS was showing.
  4. Brining like crazy here in Forsyth County (winston). I think either way this goes there will be some very slick roads on Sunday. Grounds temps will be very favorable.
  5. Is there also an FV3 ice map to go with that? Seems like the snowfall map is way overdone for some of the southern areas that will likely be ice.
  6. If the GFS is even close to accurate there wont be any left to fall after column saturation. Nothing but frozen snizzle and maybe a dusting Monday on the way out.
  7. Tomorrow, as needed. Most of the precip would be overnight Sat night then into Sunday and lingering into Monday.
  8. Got it. Just read RAHs 4am synopsis as well and they appear to be suggesting a blend of both precip types for the triad including 1-2" of snow and .25 ZR. So its both. Sloppy Sunday incoming!
  9. What the NAM shows as ZR the Euro shows as snow over the same areas. 6-8" in Stuart and 2" here in INT-GSO. So is the Euro suggesting a better thermal profile aloft? Or is the NAM the favorite for sniffing out ZR this close? Something seems off here.
  10. Sampling day as all the pieces finally come onshore. So if there are corrections to be made, today is it. I really dont want to be sitting here Sunday without power and playoff games. So if ZR is the only option, lets punt!
  11. Curious, what forecaster or station covers your area? Someone in Danville or the Triad stations? You are about 40 miles north of GSO, plus some elevation. So this event could certainly be quite different for you vs N NC and the piedmont.
  12. @Orangeburgwx fail. Cant deliver a simple 2-4" snowfall. Drops 14" on me in December and now crushes me with ZR. Cant deal with these extremes. Gonna need to vote in a new thread starter.
  13. 4-5 days out. Time for @OrangeburgWX to see if he can go 2-2 with storm threads this season. Reel it in!
  14. You guys lettin' me down! Someone promised me 72° and sunny until June the other day. Until I see the FV3 starts honking ice I'm not on board for the NW piedmont and triad. The low level cold already in place by end of week is certainly enough reason to be concerned, but there is little reinforcement for it. No snow pack really anywhere to the north and no new cold shot during the LP passage. Am I missing something? Otherwise that CAD signal should erode quickly, right?
  15. Man thats what I tried to say after the last storm and got raked for it. I sooo agree. But you should prepare for the flaming arrows if history is consistent.
  16. You got me excited! 72° and sunny until July, right? Bring.It.On!!
  17. I'll deal with the mud. Either way, the dogs will tear up sod or seed this time of year. I was just hoping to fence them off for a couple weeks and fill in the bad spots. Everyone here knows darn good and well we will be begging for rain next June/July to keep all that new fescue alive. Extremes, just the way we roll here in the sunny south.
  18. Ok green thumbs, I desparately need to sow some grass asap. I know I could fast grow some rye, but I really would love to sow some fescue as wet as it is. Assuming we have 50s and 30s for the next couple of weeks with some rain mixed in, would it grow? Never tried it before this time of year and dont want to waste the 30 bucks on a small bag.
  19. I'm content. If anything, I'll take the warm temps for now if it results in a drier pattern. It is simply too damn wet. We have sugar ants in the house at the end of December! And like Poimen, I am seriously considering tossing out some fescue. Looks like a bookend winter. 14" in December, who knows what Fab Feb and Miracle March might bring. Folks need to calm down a bit. We still have a solid 75 days of potential to go even after the next couple of weeks.
  20. Patience....so far this winter mother nature is making it look easy. I just had 14" of snow for Frosty's sake!
  21. Lol. Thanks for your support...,uh, will kinda....,ok, maybe not. I could argue that if this storm was all we get this winter that by February all of you will be crying about it. So whats wrong with wanting several 4" events? Save the big stuff for the mountains and lets make everyone else in the forum happy. All you have to do is look at the 4' high piles of snow in my yard to realize I would have happily shared half of that with my fellow Wolfpackers in Raleigh. (ABC and Dukies go home) I understand the excitement of the big dog. But that big dog leaves a huge mess around the house after the storm too.
  22. If the FV3 can nail two storms, one from 10 days out and the other from 15 days out, then scrap the rest of the models. We have the one we need for winter forecasts. Slightly off topic, how did the FV3 do earlier this year with severe storm setups, hurricanes, etc?
  23. I get it. And I had my day when I wanted it. But when I had to plow up 4' high walls of it 100 yards long yesterday it quickly becomes more trouble than its worth. I LOVE snow. But I think 4" events cover everything from a sledder to the enthusiasts.
  24. I want everyone here to get their snow so dont take this the wrong way, but I never want to see over a foot of snow again. I think 4" is about right. Coat everything, cover the grass, you can walk in it, drive in it, shovel it fairly easily, businesses stay open and it melts quick. The order of magnitude increase in complexity of everything with the limited snow removal resources here in the south is unreal. The ideal winter for me going forward is 3-4 4" inch events with one of them being Christmas morning. A foot is cool if you dont actually have to function for 3-4 days.
  25. I hear ya and share your concern. Power already flickered once tonight. The only positive to the wind was that most of the snow weight blew out of the trees earlier today. If we get a couple tenths of ZR that wind will quickly work against us. Light ZR here in Kvegas / Walkertown.