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kvegas-wx

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Everything posted by kvegas-wx

  1. kvegas-wx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I needed a break in the action and fortunately had to travel to Aspen CO this weekend. The weather is stunning!! 60s and 30s, beautiful days. And we had snow flurries from a passing cloud yesterday at 12,000 feet going over Independence Pass. I'll do whatever dance, ritual or sacrifice to the memory of John Denver that I need to do to bring this weather home with me to the Southeast.
  2. kvegas-wx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    What is stunning to me about the charts above is that we ended up with 2018 being a near record Sept for heat....while we were having record annual rainfall amounts during a fall when we couldnt find a dry weekend anywhere and begging for it to stop raining. That to me is even more impressive than this year.
  3. kvegas-wx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Until Jerry or one of his Caribbean cousins shows up and wrecks the party with 100% humidity and 85° temps well into Oct. We are not going to get off the hook easy this year.
  4. kvegas-wx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Look to the upper midwest at 6-7 days out and see if its really there. Then all we need to worry about is breaking down the ridge. I fear we are already seeing some familiar battle lines drawn.
  5. kvegas-wx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    And that may be the only moisture your lawn sees as well unless the tropics come through for us. I didnt get a drop from Dorian in the Triad.
  6. kvegas-wx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    If we lock in the SER again and sweat through October I think at least 70% of this board will need some sort of mental therapy. The long range models are just not good at predicting pattern changes.....ever. #trustbroken
  7. kvegas-wx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    There are benefits.....it is much easier to kill my lawn for reseeding when it is bone dry. And I was able to open up a mile or so of atv trails yesterday on the tractor without sliding around in mud. Beyond that, this is miserable! I just hate to rely on a tropical system to break the pattern because we all know how bad the inland flooding can be across the hill country.
  8. kvegas-wx

    Dorian Observations

    I know there are plenty of folks suffering, but for what its worth, the "good" parts of this storm are being felt well inland in the Triad. Partly sunny with an awesome steady breeze. This is roughly the same weather we get here every time a storm runs up the coast. Just a beautiful early fall day. 81° and the breeze negates any humidity.
  9. kvegas-wx

    Dorian

    What a joke. Next month Wake County Schools close for a breezy fall day! So ridiculous. I can certainly agree when winds are forecast to gust over 50mph for an extended period. But keep in mind folks, there are areas all over this great nation where that's a perfectly normal day!
  10. kvegas-wx

    Dorian

    Durham, Raleigh, Chapel Hill. Roughly 20 mile sides I suppose.
  11. kvegas-wx

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    The nighttime lows are starting to crash into the lower 60s here in the Triad but we still have a couple of weeks to get past the tropical influence and reset the fall progression. Looks like we will be running 5-7° high for the next 10 days or so. I swear if we get a SER that locks in I'll go postal. I cant deal with that again this year.
  12. kvegas-wx

    Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread

    You might be surprised. They may port call and take you to Coco Cay and just not let you tour Nassau. I bet they clean up Coco Cay real damn quick. Two weeks is plenty of time to bring in dozens of private cleaning crews.
  13. kvegas-wx

    Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread

    Nope, lets get it right. EVERYONE hates (non red-tag) NYC/NJ tropical posters. (love you guys in the winter though, kind of funny to watch the freakouts) Evidently people in the Bahamas have nothing on "Sandy Survivors". Give it up people. Sandy, by comparison, was a little coastal flooding combined with a few EF-1 tornadoes for localized heavy damage. Most of an island was just wiped off the map by Dorian. No equals here.
  14. kvegas-wx

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    So is one to impart that if the mid level ridge #2 in Papins discussion slides over the top of Dorian in the next 36 hours then he is blocked and will resume a westerly course into FL/GA? Edit - NM, just saw his part two. Second ridge is expected to receed thus opening the path NNW up the coast. Makes sense.
  15. kvegas-wx

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Seems we are in unprecedented territory here. So what likelihood is there that Dorian is so strong he is creating his own trajectory or impacting other steering currents to the point where models cant "see" it until it is too late? If he chews up another 100 miles westerly a LF is all but certain into FL.
  16. kvegas-wx

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    So basically 17k people are getting ready to endure a tsunami higher than their land mass and 175mph+ winds for a few hours. Not your run of the mill Sunday. Prayers, well wishes, thoughts, whatever you choose, for them all. Was there even an evacuation effort? I didnt hear of one.
  17. kvegas-wx

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    I was just looking at that as well. If we wake tomorrow and Dorian is still tracking due west, the entire right side of the forecast track is a moot point. He's going to LF in FL if only by a few miles. Light steering currents arent going to turn a Cat 5 on a dime.
  18. kvegas-wx

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Me: Watches YT video about RC's island that said those giant water slides were built to withstand Cat4 winds. Dorian: Hold my beer. Bahamas going to look a little different after this weekend I'm afraid.
  19. kvegas-wx

    Dorian

    Save the $300. Better yet, don't even order one yet. Lots of hype here as with all first canes of the year. But modeling still shows a very small storm, might not even be a Cat 2 at landfall, and still showing a greater likelihood for a FL landfall. Even if it recurves and stays just offshore you will be fine in Charleston. I'd play the waiting game on this one.
  20. kvegas-wx

    August 2019 Obs

    Who declared summer over?? (Let me be the first to thank you!) 63° and breezy!!?? Win!
  21. kvegas-wx

    August 2019 Obs

    As unfortunate as it is, yes, yes I did know that. I endure this miserable heat every day and countdown my weekends until October. Almost there!
  22. kvegas-wx

    August 2019 Obs

    What Triad is this you speak of? My Triad has had plenty of 90s??
  23. kvegas-wx

    2019 Tropical Weather Discussion

    You never know....see Solak's post above from August 8th where NOAA increased chances for an above normal season. It could get wild in Oct/Nov given SSTs. The fuel is there. You just need the pattern to tap it.
  24. kvegas-wx

    Looking Ahead to Fall and Winter

    Just give me Accuwxs "mainly pleasant" conditions all the way to Christmas Eve, then a 1 week long polar vortex between Christmas Day and New Years Day that dumps double our avg annual snowfall, then normal winter conditions for Jan/Feb and I'll deal with whatever is left over in March. It's not that hard Mother Nature. It's just not that hard.
  25. kvegas-wx

    August 2019 Obs

    We are also at that point in time when the late afternoon heat isn't quite as intense. As long as you stay in the office during the mid-day hours you can still mow the lawn after supper without frying. Mid-day 90s quickly drop to low 80's and upper 70's which ain't bad. Another 3-4 weeks and those 7am bus stops will be far more enjoyable. Hang on friends, those 90 day winter outlooks will be coming into range very soon!
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