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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    Northern and western NJ too also the pattern is obviously changing again after this storm passes.............
  2. NEG NAO
    did I ever think or say here I thought that Monday is a snowstorm setup ? Why don't you keep an open mind this far out ? The models have been all over the place because that first system has a say about what happens with the track of the early next week system and we are still a couple of days away from the first system..........
  3. NEG NAO
    if you are talking long range up to 10 days here is the snowfall result:
  4. NEG NAO
    we are still early in the game - there has been no model consistency with this system and the late week system will help determine what exactly happens with the follow up system.........and the 1st late week system is still days away.......
  5. NEG NAO
    12Z EURO inland track for 1/3 event
  6. NEG NAO
    still plenty of time and will depend on exactly what the weekend storm leaves behind and hopefully can drag some cold enough air down after it passes........
  7. NEG NAO
    it is kind of odd that the previous storm did not have any cold air to tap and send our way just in time - BUT the 0Z Euro showed just cold enough air here for a changeover - this amped CMC is a good signal along with the AO plunging and increases our chances and hopefully the storm can get hold of just cold enough air for a changeover - waiting on the 12Z Euro and the ensembles of GFS
  8. NEG NAO
    12Z unreliable 16V GFS is similar to the GFS OP the storm doesn't have enough room to develop so moves east waiting on the Canadian to finish running
  9. NEG NAO
    not according to the 0Z Euro - like i mentioned earlier only reason I am tracking it is the Euro keeps showing it
  10. NEG NAO
    12Z GFS still not showing the storm for early next week organizing and moving up the coast still about 5 days out though - that previous system is suppressing it on this model
  11. NEG NAO
    as long as the EURO OP is showing this ( 2 runs in a row now) its worth tracking IMO. - but like you said needs other reliable model support. These one storm right after another are difficult for the models to accurately forecast ??
  12. NEG NAO
    While we are waiting for the next snowstorm in the NYC Metro here is a review of snowstorms from 1953 up till the the one just a couple weeks ago: https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html
  13. NEG NAO
    18Z GFS Para misses too - all this after the 12Z EURO came on board with the storm - typical model mayhem at this range....
  14. NEG NAO
    The event to now concentrate on is the follow up to this early weekends - early next week as the 12Z EURO has jumped on board along with Para GFS
  15. NEG NAO
    Threat early next week is real now since EURO shows it'
  16. NEG NAO
    Still have a lot of time for changes -Actually the 12Z GFS moved closer to the Para - GFS solution at 12Z before it moves east because the previous storm is blocking it out to sea - also on the Para it changes to snow after starting as a mix
  17. NEG NAO
    This article states that this is going to be a strong SSW event similar to 84/85 - others have said there is a chance the vortex will split - strong and split what might happen then ? *Stratosphere warming watch* Strong signals now emerge for a disruptive stratospheric warming event in early January, possibly impacting the course of Winter (severe-weather.eu)
  18. NEG NAO
    All by its lonesome and too warm and more then likely wrong in some way...........
  19. NEG NAO
    and the SSW event in January 1973 did NOT lead to any significant increase in snowfall the rest of the winter as 72-73 ended up with 2.8 inches in NYC
  20. NEG NAO
    did the 73-74 winter season have a SSW event ? IMO this advertised SSW event soon is going to be the wild card this winter - it will probably change the current storm tracks we have been experiencing and also if there is a split in the PV that just makes things more uncertain and complex.*Stratosphere warming watch* Strong signals now emerge for a disruptive stratospheric warming event in early January, possibly impacting the course of Winter (severe-weather.eu)
  21. NEG NAO
    calculate the percentage from this: monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf (weather.gov)
  22. NEG NAO
    Plenty of hints on various models of an east coast storm during the 1st week in January but its too far out for them to be consistent and accurate.............
  23. NEG NAO
    The SSW is real the GFS is NOT !
  24. NEG NAO
    In addition take a look at previous seasons when NYC received over 10 in. of snow in December and report back....
  25. NEG NAO
    GEM Disagrees
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