NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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most of what falls tonight into tomorrow will be melted in and around NYC local suburbs before Saturday night - Sunday which looks like whatever snow falls will melt before what ever falls mid week next week -- curbing my enthusiasm on this entire stretch...........because it appears to be a carbon copy of the last few events but milder- also should only have 1 storm thread running at a time - its a pain having to keep switching between the 2 and the main Feb thread- 475 replies
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0Z Euro is now showing snow amounts in the NYC metro similar to what the GFS was coming up with
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CP NYC will find a way to measure close to 1 inch snow for each of the next 2 events and not out of the question for next weeks events as suppression is possible
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Both of these next 2 minor events in the immediate NYC metro look to have minor accumulations of 1 - 3 inches and with the second event on Sunday turning to rain and temps in the low 40's most areas around NYC and immediate suburbs will have little or no snow left on the ground after Monday IMO. Amazing how when we get close to these events they end up being no big deals.....
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we don't know exactly what is coming past day 2 because every one of these potential events are borderline for various reasons........
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Never ass/u/me.......
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yes - what these events remind me of is when you go to a restaurant and they first give you whatever after you sit down to munch on ( Thursdays Event) - then the waiter asks you to order your appetizer ( Weekend Event) then you order the main meal - ( next weeks first event) and then you order dessert -(next weeks second event) question here is will there be enough room left for dessert ? ( next weeks second event)
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Because it is a fast mover with borderline temps that will give us a similar event compared to many of the lighter events experienced the last couple of years - especially in the immediate metro that will melt away for the most past on Friday closer to the coast you get ....... 1- 3inch event possibly - BORING !
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12Z Euro
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thanks for proving my point about the long range GFS/GEFS suite of models nonsense
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The GFS/GEFS is usually wrong past days 5-7 - but then again every dog has its day
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If we have believed the GFS past 5-7 days this winter and it verified we would have had 10 feet of snow already
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12Z Canadian not that impressive through 10 days - this is more believable then the 12Z GooFuS model
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Middlesex/Union County NJ border at 11:50 A.M temp is 42 and not a trace of snow on the ground completely melted -its not melting up northern NJ yet ?
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True - I would cut the 06Z GFS totals in half IMO
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you really believe we will have back to back MECS or higher next week ?
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We only received a dusting here - you meant melted by this afternoon ? I wouldn't start any threads yet and the 6Z GFS is nonsense IMO - how many times this winter have we seen this kind of output on the GFS ? Just a couple of days ago it showed this similar solution and the next run it was cut in half or less totals
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0Z Euro in Fantasy Land Range similar to Canadian
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Fantasy Land - if it still shows this later in the week its for real......
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For less than 1 inch - no thread needed IMO -sorry - but the 18Z GFS has up to 3
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the decade ?
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that seems to be the trend happened to the 6th and 9th events
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the 2 chances of accumulating snow we thought we had a good chance of the 6th and the 9th is mainly liquid now according to Upton at 3 pm update - no new storm threads in site.....
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Ridiculous I give that a 10% chance of verifying
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12Z GFS highly suspect - unless the other models show the same type of sudden changes from their previous 6 -12 hours solutions......I am sure they are investigating if faulty or missing data messed up the run - and if 0Z goes back to its previous solutions we know it did......
