NEG NAO

The 0Z and 12Z runs have the updated Radiosonde data which should deliver a more accurate model run then the previous 06Z and 18Z runs.......

still adjusting left - just remember that 979 low on the coast south of us from the Sunday run of the EURO

there is a chance the guidance might not be through adjusting west yet since it just began the last couple model cycles - remember the EURO was showing this a few days ago

all aboard EURO at 12Z -this event is legit now IMO.......

doesn't even look near - BUT that being said until some of these foreign based models get on board especially the Canadian and EURO I'm less then 50 % invested in this event right now.........

start a thread here for next weekend 2/13-14- you are confusing matters here in this one - thanks......that being said I don't think Walt will be fully on board with this weekends event till the Canadian comes on board - and if the EURO is still out to sea at 12Z -well...........

12Z GEFS precip

The 12Z GEM misses the fuller phase

still plenty of time for adjustments in the positioning of the precip field and intensity of............

a 995 in that position has a fairly good chance of delivering here............

late to the party maybe ???

12Z NAM and 12Z GFS OP beginning to look very similar with position of LP - waiting for the Canadian....

Yes - really interesting that yesterdays 12Z EURO it was really difficult to even tell if there was a storm was a storm out there ....and now expect that at todays 12Z it will be anywhere close to the 12Z NAM ???BUT a few days prior the EURO was the first model to pick up on a direct hit

so what makes you think this 72 hour NAM doesn't fall into that category ? Benchmark track at NAM 72 hours ???

How real is this ? From many other models just yesterday far out to sea to a benchmark track ??? BUT its out of the NAM more reliable range of 60 hours

The 12Z GFSv16 I posted earlier almost phased in time - this 12Z EURO OP doesn't make sense - it shows basically nothing for Sunday offshore and then midweek tries cutting a low west of us into New York State ? ??? Each 12Z model has a totally different solution it seems

and the GFSv16 is back trying hard to save the day !

Portions of LI have gotten quite a bit of snow the last 10 years..................

As I mentioned yesterday - it is rare for the immediate NYC metro to get a significant snowstorm that follows so closely ( less then 1 week) a major snowstorm the size of the previous storm .That said I think the storm doesn't phase along the coast this weekend and the current EURO OP is going in the correct direction. BUT the EURO OP is showing some potential for a few days later. So now go ahead and tell me I am wrong (I hope I am wrong ) about the weekend. Also can anyone remember a SECS following so closely behind MECS or HECS comparable to the previous storm in NYC ?

its really difficult to fiqure out what the Canadian is trying to accomplish here and hard to believe that northern stream energy will make it this far north during that time period without redeveloping further south

0Z Canadian

0Z GFS

WPC

(02 Feb 2021) GFSv16 and HRW FV3 data have been unavailable since 12z due to NCEP data flow problems. We are not aware of an ETA from NCEP.