NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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The 12Z Euro Op ends the January Thaw on the 11th - and a few days later there is a coastal low coming up the coast that originated in the Gulf -ALSO NOTICE THAT STRONG HP STAYS ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES - SOLID POS PNA PATTERN
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Read Mt. Holly's AFD AFD from KPHI - and the 0Z GFS is hinting at the Northern disturbance possibly connecting with the LP to the south if the trough sharpens more some parts of the area could see some snow. It just seems to want to snow this season - its snowing here now and there was only a 20 % chance - ground is covered again along with cars
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prove it - and prove why the attached issued yesterday is wrong - thanks in advance
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January thaw is coming early in January especially in the 6-10 day period --with the wpo negative - the epo negative the nao negative the ao going negative and the pna positive especialy after Jan. 10 chances are we will have below to well below normal temps in the east the second half of January along with the southern stream waking up. In addition another Strat Warming event is on the table for sometime next month setting the stage for a cold Feb. All of this with the MJO in the COD
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Euro long range OP says don't expect any warmth around mid month - is it right or wrong ? Anyones guess
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Anyone who thinks they have a handle on the longer range - should think twice before coming to any conclusions
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Too end this pointless NAM Discussion at least it stopped the northward trend at 12Z noticing the northwest flow and block and now moving east with the LP
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Because its the 84 hour NAM - would be interesting if it ends up leading the way.........the 06Z run is not giving up the northward track yet
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of course it will take a break but smaller breaks through January before the next arctic front comes through - also those great lakes cutters especially on the GFS are hard to believe with that massive blocking stretched across Greenland and westward - GFS has done this before trying to force the LP's to far into the block
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this shortwave is the strongest of the few arriving here the next few days - capable of putting down some accumulations in some areas of the region
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those enhanced areas might not be located in the same areas depicted here - also an inverted trough situation could develop the timing of this event is critical because there will be more people traveling then a usual week day night. A wide range of amounts region wide is a possibility - not guaranteed yet. I am sure I will get a weenie from some here - I wish they would get rid of these 5th grade emoji's here .
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what do you consider a "bigger" snow event ?
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I have received about 9 inches total from Clippers this month - making December an above normal snowfall month
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Any maps too post showing it ?
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impressive to say the least - individual storms produced by this still to be determined
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Upton is unsure about this but mentions in their discussion its possible - anyones guess right now
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you have the precip outlook maps to post ? - this time of year below normal temps here almost guarantee frozen precip
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Euro long range is suggesting a pattern change closer to mid-month as a storm tracks further south and then northeast into our neck of the woods
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down time ? I am currently under a Winter Weather Advisory
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glad you posted this in the banter thread
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thats cool - which program you use to create that ? Also all those period marks I put in my most represents all the banter posts already in the new January 2026 thread - nonsense posts asking where forum member Allsnow is and then discussions back and forth about it and a couple other nonsense posts
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its too bad most of the banter ends up in the monthly main weather threads and storm threads ...........usually by the same people
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yes but earlier on the 1st - will be interesting to see how this evolves and if the developing LP taps additional moisture from the ocean
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why don't you read the Upton AFD I attached ??- also snow squalls from the lakes don't usually reach into south jersey and beyond - glad you have this all figured out already...
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18Z GFS still shows a wave of LP developing on a stalled out front and Upton believes it -so we might be tracking another one of these northern stream systems soon estimated arrival time Jan 1st or possibly 2nd AFD from KOKX
