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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    the model solutions change on every model run - still 9 + days away out of forecasting range.......
  2. NEG NAO
    Need the ridge out west to move away from the coast into the Rockies for a more favorable snowstorm pattern along the east coast which would also favor a better chance of negatively tilted trough axis in the east......another crucial ingredient needed is a Negative NAO along with a strong anchored HP in southeast Canada....
  3. NEG NAO
    here we go again with the GFS long range
  4. NEG NAO
    so what ingredient(s) were missing ?
  5. NEG NAO
    then should ask Tropical Tidbits creator Levy Cowan why ?
  6. NEG NAO
    The GFS is a model loaded with mistakes in the coding which causes glitches in the output - also its obvious the GFS can't be trusted anymore past 60 hours and should be treated similar to the NAM - how many wild goose chases have we sent on with wrapped up blizzards several days in advance here over the last few years to eventually fizzle out in future runs ? That is what helped create this thread prematurely...
  7. NEG NAO
    Its obvious we aren't going to get much with a positively tilted trough axis
  8. NEG NAO
    this is as close Euro gets to us
  9. NEG NAO
    the 0Z Euro Suite will determine which side of the fence we are on with this potential and will have an impact on the BOM output,,,,,,
  10. NEG NAO
    have a comparison to 12Z ?
  11. NEG NAO
    I think it could be similar to todays event with the heavier amounts south of the area and 1 - 4 in the metro.......as of now....although any banding could produce 4 - 8 in those areas
  12. NEG NAO
    However you want to define it - BUT I am siding with the voice of reason on this one - Walt- he tells it like it is and doesn't wishcast.......
  13. NEG NAO
    its still hanging the energy back in the southwest right ?
  14. NEG NAO
    which models that are 0Z or 12Z ?
  15. NEG NAO
    agree 100 % - I think too many folks are jumping the gun on this one based on 2 runs of a GFS OP and the 12Z Euro a complete miss of the phase and out to sea - need more support for the GFS solution to support a storm scenario......
  16. NEG NAO
    unfortunately until the Euro shows that it doesn't agree yet and the GFS can easily lose the phase at 0Z
  17. NEG NAO
    The 18Z is still using old data from earlier the real test will be when the new data is injected into the model at 0Z ........
  18. NEG NAO
    Bernie is confused too:
  19. NEG NAO
    now honestly which one would you put your money on ?
  20. NEG NAO
    if the Euro OP and ensemblles were even close to the GFS I wouldn't be discounting the GFS but its hard to get a phase with that setup. And we are only 5-6 days away
  21. NEG NAO
    of course the GFS ensembles will side with the GFS OP
  22. NEG NAO
    I meant the Euro Ensembles.........I am discounting the entire GFS Suite. Look how they mislead us on this event with all the amped up members
  23. NEG NAO
    no post them for us ?
  24. NEG NAO
    Euro and Canadian basically miss - GFS is wrong AGAIN as usual....NYC snow drought continues with no end in sight
  25. NEG NAO
    when is the last time it verified a MECS or greater over the last few years for our area ? Its shown them quite a few times over that time period
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