NEG NAO
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Everything posted by NEG NAO
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the 2 chances of accumulating snow we thought we had a good chance of the 6th and the 9th is mainly liquid now according to Upton at 3 pm update - no new storm threads in site.....
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Ridiculous I give that a 10% chance of verifying
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12Z GFS highly suspect - unless the other models show the same type of sudden changes from their previous 6 -12 hours solutions......I am sure they are investigating if faulty or missing data messed up the run - and if 0Z goes back to its previous solutions we know it did......
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Agreed plus Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning
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0Z Euro is getting back to reality IMO Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather
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Right now I would go with the Euro solution as the most reasonable which is half as of 12Z of the GFS solution . GFS the last few runs has about 2 ft. plus for the region on avg through 384 hours while the Euro is about half that.........BUT this is only potential and we could end up with much less especially the way this winter has played out thus far......
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This forum opened in November 2010 - a little over 14 years ago and wasn't the old forum called Eastern Weather ? Many of us were members there .Can't remember why that forum closed and this one was created - a history lesson please ?
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The Euro total snowfall is reasonable IMO as compared to the GFS 2 feet of frozen snow.sleet
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Growing confidence that there are a few models that are agreeing about a moderate frozen event mid- late week 3-6 on the 12Z Euro - IMO need a few more runs in a row too gain more confidence and if they still agree after Sunday nights 0Z run - its thread time if Walt agrees Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather
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The 12Z GFS outdid its usual self Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather
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why don't you post some model guidance to back up your predictions ?
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right now with this very light rain your tires are washing it up to the underside of your vehicle - also radar returns to the south are moving mainly eastward with minimal northward progress and little precip directly to our west - main batch of heavier precip is south of DC...... -
The 0Z Euro is more active and precip interacts with the cold air here
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This is actually similar to what happened with the January 19th storm - a wave of LP develops on the slowly moving cold front - the GFS also shows it like I posted a few posts up BUT a day earlier
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The 12Z Canadian doesn't push the arctic front as far south the first week and the pattern becomes more active without suppression
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February is beginning to look alot like January on the 12Z GFS - cold and dry with suppression the first 1/3rd of the month at least little snowfall but chance of a coastal the 7th on a slow moving front - sound familiar ?
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will be interesting how much rain we actually receive on Friday
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Only the GFS now for next week BUT the Euro shows it a week later - IMO good idea not to start any new threads till the GFS, Canadian and Euro or at least 2 out of 3 agree on something with accumulating snow and their ensembles for at least a few runs in a row....
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this event is not exactly a drought buster as it will barely deliver enough precip in the metro to get rid of the remaining salt on the road ( don't be surprised if some towns put down more ice melter spray prior to the light storm if temps are forecasted to be close to freezing) but after friday there will be only a few piles of hard frozen snow/ice left
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Next week is now going to feature our next storm threat/thread as several models including the 0Z Euro are showing an east coast storm sometime mid - late next week
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and again mid - later next week
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Fun times ahead 1st week of Feb GFS Model – Total Snowfall (10:1 SLR) for Northeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits
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There still is hope -lol
