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NEG NAO

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Everything posted by NEG NAO

  1. NEG NAO
    why are some other METS saying the -PNA/AO pattern is not favorable ? You have proof that it is. Maybe someone should point this out to Lee Goldberg - Steve D. and DT
  2. NEG NAO
    majority of ensemble members have yet to fully support the OPS - except maybe an AI ensemble which is not a proven in the long term to be accurate yet - so they never actually lost the storm
  3. NEG NAO
    I guess the METS that don't like this pattern for a storm don't agree that the -PNA/AO supports larger storms that Don pointed out last night - Don had proof of this
  4. NEG NAO
    Also - its curious that the Canadian wanted nothing to do with the storm phase then all of a sudden last night at 0Z and again at 12Z did an about face with a blizzard solution -0Z runs and beyond should be interesting
  5. NEG NAO
    agreed - I don't like that the ensembles give little support to these overdone OP runs - we have been down this road before 5 days out - time will tell
  6. NEG NAO
    take precip totals with a grain of salt this far out - locations of heavier precip will change run to run and model to model
  7. NEG NAO
    of course the configuration of the precip field is going to change on all models - still ends up being a MECS for most of the metro
  8. NEG NAO
    My take on all the models is they all have their strengths and weaknesses - so I prefer using NBM (National Blend of Models)
  9. NEG NAO
    This is from this afternoons Upton AFD: AFD from KOKX
  10. NEG NAO
    First of all you are talking about an OP model - and you should list some examples supporting your case
  11. NEG NAO
    you on board for a SECS or MECS ?
  12. NEG NAO
    so you on board for a SECS or MECS ?
  13. NEG NAO
    agreed - I wouldn't discriminate against any model in this set -up - BUT when I see the GEFS and EPS not on board for anything other than an advisory level event - thats a RED FLAG against these OP models advertiising a MECS + event
  14. NEG NAO
    agreed also after reviewing all the 12Z guidance I would say IMO there is a 50/50 chance of a SECS and a 30 % chance of a MECS - what does everyone else think percentage wise ?
  15. NEG NAO
    the eps is only an advisory level event
  16. NEG NAO
  17. NEG NAO
    GEFS ensemble guidance was not fully onboard either and the Euro - AI was further east - southeast and could easily follow the Euro OP
  18. NEG NAO
    IMO all options still on the table - we are too far out to determine exactly when and if a phase will occur .
  19. NEG NAO
  20. NEG NAO
    only if the block weakens and starts moving out of the way
  21. NEG NAO
    thats the primary transferring its energy to the coast - Canadian showed that also - Miller B
  22. NEG NAO
    When you issue them with one of your future forecast packages
  23. NEG NAO
    thats an nteresting question ?-why is the GEFS horrible ?- I would be concerned but there is enough support from several other models to not worry yet
  24. NEG NAO
    one at a time -lol - where is that Philadelphia dude who was predicting the big warmup ? Also I hope sleet doesn't get involved in this that is part of the reason we still have a thick layer of ice/snow on the ground from the storm over 3 weeks ago
  25. NEG NAO
    Even if its only half of what most of the models are showing now its still going to be at least a SECS or MECS in many areas
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