KoalaBeer

Brick sidewalks are a literal death trap in Portland right now. Almost just died getting home from work, had to shuffle walk like a duck. 32 and light rain.

Festive in downtown Portland. Been snowing pretty much non stop since 9AM with not a ton to show for it but we’ll take it.

Absolute white out on the Sunday River cams. Surprised to see no WWA up there from what people were telling me who travelled down from sugarloaf etc. today. Im liking my spot in Portland for Tuesdays deal.

East end Portland ME about 15 minutes ago.

I’ll come out of hibernation and bite against my better judgement. It’s funny (or not) how CC became such a bipartisan issue. I was watching the documentary The White House Effect on Netflix last night and didn’t realize how seriously the bush administration took global warming, at first accepting the scientific facts but eventually whitewashing it as up to debate. How much we have regressed since then is depressing. It should not be a D vs R issue. Anyways hope all of you are well. Just got a snowmaking gun delivered to work today so I’ll be making and frolicking in the white stuff before the rest of you weenies.

Uhh just check the NHC website.. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154002.shtml?cone#contents

Agreed. I guess that why I put capture in parentheses. I think the interaction will pull it more northward then some of the eastward solutions being thrown out there is all I’m saying. I like the St Marks call for landfall as a low end Cat 4. I certainly wouldn’t let my guard down in places like TLH.

Zooming out and looking at the big picture is mesmerizing. Strongly recommend going to watch the loop and switching over to water vapor as well which highlights the interaction with the trough. Already hints of it getting “captured” which I think limits how far east this goes. Despite what others are saying I’ll stick with the NHC. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=us&product=wv_mid

Fair enough. It’s not super uncommon with these high end systems. Florence is another one that comes to mind that dropped a fairly widespread 20-30+ inches.

Tornado threat ramping up into the afternoon. CC drop on this one by Ehrhardt SC.

Straight from the mouth of the NHC. Just read the 5 pm forecast discussion. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/242058.shtml Of equal importance to the forecast intensity is Helene's forecast size. Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of major hurricane size at similar latitudes, and therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side.

Wow, at work and did a quick radar check on my phone and that is quite the wall of TOR warnings across LA into TX. A few of them with a significant TDS on them.

Ya absolutely. Seen it time and time again. With enough time some systems can recapture it but that’s simply not the case here. Those broad cores can take quite a long time to reconsolidate into something that can RI. I like comparing it to some big severe weather days when people are drooling over those high STP maps. Sure there is a pristine environment for a violent TOR but the question is there a storm that is able to take advantage of it? I think your call is good even if it comes in a little weaker, it’s pretty hard to hit the nail on the head with a system like this.

Can’t argue with you there. Beryl kind of got the 1-2-3 whammy. Land interaction -> cool SSTs of the northern Yucatán -> dry air intrusion that was very apparent on WV loops.