CheeselandSkies

Of those, 1988 had Gilbert, 2001 Michelle, and 2002 Isidore. Can't think of any others off the top of my head. So I guess those are effectively "one storm seasons" if you're looking at only high-impact majors. 2001 though did end up with nine hurricanes including four majors, so there's definitely still life left in the season. Although, if you're looking for a definitive "switch flip" within the next week or so, you'd like to see a more consistent signal from the models. Already appears as though they oversold 91L's potential early on, who's to say the next "modelcane" or two, or three that pop up won't go the same way?

I jumped on board the futility train when 91L's prospects to become even a CONUS MH landfall tease, let alone bona fide threat, took a nosedive. At this point it's like that 1/2" duster that spoils a would-be record measurable snowfall drought in a weak winter season (with extra salt in the wound because all the indicators were for an epically snowy one). Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

I think it just has to do with where the strongest storms in this setup initiated/tracked.

Out-of-nowhere Enhanced RIsk for northern Illinois. Day 3 outlook issued on Saturday had the area in a 5% (Marginal Risk).

Still, nice overachiever for a marginal (5% wind) day, which I wasn't even in yet currently am under a severe thunderstorm warning.

lol

Two Cat. 4+ CONUS landfalls within three years (Hugo, Andrew) in a -AMO period (plus Iniki's precision strike on Hawaii) made it seem like such events were much more common than they really are, and made a lot of people really nervous for the coming +AMO period. 2004-05 went insane, then we went 12 years without a landfall at MH intensity.

If they have it up there, strongly recommend New Glarus Moon Man (I prefer it over their more widely distributed, well-known Spotted Cow).

This almost looks tornado-warning worthy, despite extremely marginal setup. Apparently there was a report of a funnel cloud with possible brief touchdown earlier in southeast MN.

Andrew really was unusual in many respects. Because it was the most recent major hurricane landfall (to a lesser extent accompanied by Hugo) when I was a young budding weather geek in the early-mid '90s with all the Weather Channel specials, books and magazine articles focusing on it, I grew up thinking of it as the quintessential hurricane and that all major hurricanes were like a couple hour long tornado; of course I now know that's not the case.

Really interesting to see the model track output from 0Z 8/22/92; and that the majority of guidance did take the storm west toward Florida (although too far north, GFDL was the most accurate on direction for that run but much too slow) but there was a cluster of three models with an almost immediate sharp recurve OTS. AVN was closest on timing but much too far north, showing landfall near Port St. Lucie.

The real headscratcher now is that this year isn't really behaving like any of the previous third-year Nina analogs, either. July through first 10 days of August, I'll give you, but all of them had substantially more activity by this point in time.

Irma was on the verge of being that one long-tracker that makes it to a CONUS landfall as a 130kt+ beast...then the ridge verified stronger than expected and pushed it into Cuba. Hugo was pretty close, although IIRC it was about 115-120kt at SC landfall (sources seem to differ). Some of the advisory forecast points for Florence IIRC put it inland with at least 120kt winds, but then it stalled out approaching the coast.

The yellow shaded zone indicating potential "low-probability" (30% or less) areas for tropical cyclogenesis on NHC's 5-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Medium-probability (40%-60%) is shaded orange ("orange" or "mandarin") and high-probability (70% or more) is red ("cherry") as alluded to by @AnthonyEC above.

Weenie run for the ages right there. Been a while since one of those.

The trendy thing this season seems to be to throw out the ensembles unless the OPs are on board, when it always used to be vice versa. Seen it here and on S2K, quite possibly the same people.

How's that 0/0/0 August looking, @ldub23?

Surprise marginal risk with 5/5/2 probs. Wasn't even really expecting rain today. Forecasts issued yesterday were like "Partly sunny with a 20% chance of showers," well, that 20% just hit here. HRRR soundings for this evening look somewhat interesting in the state line region, but it doesn't really break out any supercells. I'll be in the area anyway since I was planning on heading to Illinois Railway Museum for Diesel Days today.

Not really medium range yet and probably a mirage (August isn't known for it's high-predictability long range severe weather regimes) but SPC gives some hope, although I know @Chicago Storm is not a believer.

Three of the five Augusts going back to 2018 have been perhaps the most notable month of the warm season locally for severe and/or flooding, whether it be for a singular event (2020 derecho) or sustained activity levels over at least 1-2 weeks of the month. It appears this one won't be joining them, other than the headfake toward a significant flash flood event last weekend.

Current state of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season:

Yawn. Latest from MKX:

Yeah, this was kind of sneaky.

Surprise slight risk upgrade and severe thunderstorm warning here. Not much impact in MBY, though...but it was pretty.

I'm guessing Powerball assumed that was tied to -NAO, as it usually seems to be a feature of such.