CheeselandSkies

Today could be similar to yesterday in IL/WI. Learned my lesson and will stay home and see if anything approaches the state line. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0923.html

Ugh. This was like a rinse/repeat of my last IL chase (April 30th, although at least that one actually had a tornado watch in effect), in which I initially targeted points east of I-39 but bailed on that after convection in that area failed to impress, intercepted new development further west that looked somewhat intriguing only for it to likewise lose organization as I got in position, followed it for a little while before breaking off and starting for home, only for it to become tornado warned near the WI/IL border when it was just out of my reach. This time I ended up going as far as Streator before looping around back to Ottawa and I-80. I was basically going home on I-39 when I noticed the somewhat vigorous cell between Dixon and Polo (which per my Radarscope was about the only thing producing lightning thus far all day, and had hints of a reflectivity hook and weak couplet), and jumped off on IL-72 then southwest on 2 from Byron then west on Mud Creek Road to Mt. Morris. The storm had some discernable structure but it appeared to be mostly outflow in nature (a bowing gust front/shelf cloud) and the hints of supercellular radar signatures had largely disappeared by the time I reached it. Since the storm was moving NNE, I went north from Mt. Morris back to 72 then west to Forreston, punching through the rain and north on 26 towards home. I was approaching Freeport when I noticed that the storm was now tornado-warned in Winnebago County, with a noticeable couplet near Shirland, and another warning encompassing that and another little cell that had popped up out ahead of it into southern Rock County, WI. This was now about 20 miles to my east-northeast and would have required more backtracking, breakneck driving on back roads and punching through rain cores than I cared to do at this point. SPC's LSR page has some damage reports that would appear to be associated with this, although the timestamps are after the tornado warnings would have expired, and they are listed as wind damage. I never did see any word of spotter confirmation in the tornado warning texts, and they never were extended beyond their initial issuance, so we'll see what the surveys say.

Still not so much as an MD for our region. Sitting in Ottawa, IL after aborting an attempt to get on the tail end of the cluster now near Hinckley, which started looking less interesting as I neared getting in position on it, per usual. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

That's why I'm desperation chasing an 11th hour 5% today.

They actually trimmed it mostly out of Wisconsin. Surprise, surprise (supported by CAM solutions).

Looking at the soundings, I'm not sure why the forecast risk isn't higher already unless it's the weak-ish mid level winds or uncertainties about moisture although 6Z HRRR and 3K NAM both have upper 60s to low 70s dews across IL tomorrow evening. HRRR has a fairly classic looking triple point setup and 3K NAM even has what appears to be a mesolow north of St. Louis.

Just noticed that marginal area was pulled up into my neck of the woods on Day 2...Day 3 just had it in IL/IN. Day 4 (outlook issued Sunday) the 15% risk area was over SE TX/LA/MS...all of which has now been downgraded to marginal. LOL BROYLES. The wording of the day-2 outlook implies that a threat worthy of significantly greater categorical/probabilistic contours could materialize, but spread is just too high at this point.

...in Northern Michigan.

Haven't seen a drop here on the far west side, Storms training NNE just to my east. But my Bucks game keeps getting interrupted by warnings, mostly for other counties. Spectrum has got to get SAME technology, like weather radios have had for quite some time now. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

SVR EAS alert just interrupted my Bucks game on Spectrum... already more than happened yesterday ofc. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

SPC has MD out mentioning potential for landspouts over northern IL. There's currently a severe-warned cell nearly stationary over Peru/La Salle. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0724.html I'm planning to stay home in the A/C and watch the Bucks game.

4,000 j/kg of CAPE on May 10th and all we can manage is a slight risk cap bust.

Quite a few earlier runs of the HRRR had a sup firing and tracking through some combination of Richland/Sauk/Columbia Counties with a robust UH streak from about 20-22Z. At the time I made that post, the latest couple runs (starting with the first one to come in after I left the house, go figure) dropped that and there was no sign of incipient CI in that area.

Today is starting to reek of bust in southern WI. Storm of the day might end up being that one between Oelwein, IA and Prairie du Chien. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0708.html

Last few HRRR runs have brought back that Sauk County supercell this afternoon and have been pretty consistent with it. Still in bad terrain but at least not right along the river valley. Mesoanalysis suggests some sort of surface "perturbation" (not really a low) with backed sfc winds will move through that area, so this seems plausible.

Interesting, SPC expanded 5% tor probs southward to include Madison and added a hatched hail area despite HRRR's downtrending with convective coverage and UH.

Go figure, last couple HRRR runs kill off the storms in southern WI just as they start to move out of the horrible terrain of the WI River valley. Not real keen on chasing the Northwoods on May 10th.

Was not expecting the slight risk for tomorrow. Now 12Z HRRR puts a sup right through Columbia County. 0-1 KM SRH appears to be lacking on soundings, though. Yet EHI is large because of monster CAPE. Go figure we get a high CAPE/low shear setup at 43 north in early May.

That stupid cutoff (remnants of the previous trough that produced the severe weather Wednesday through yesterday) is what will ruin this next few days of would-be setups by preventing the next trough from ejecting across the Plains properly.

Of course we all kind of suspected this was coming but it's depressing to watch it unfold on the GFS. Monster CAPE/moisture finally arrives early next week but no upper support/trigger. Hello, summer.

May 31, El Reno tornado killed Tim Samaras & crew and became the widest tornado (officially) on record.

Kind of odd how with the extended stretch of BA temps (leafout is the furthest behind on May 2nd I ever recall it being in my adult life, and that includes the godawful springs of 2014 and 2018); yet I've already been on two local/regional storm chases this year (could have been three if I hadn't been dumb and sat out 3/5), which is more than I usually have by this point in the spring. For obvious reasons, I associate severe potential with AA temps and the (theoretically) accompanying moisture/instability.

Spent yesterday afternoon basically driving in a circle from Madison-Rochelle-Paw Paw-Mendota-Amboy-Franklin Grove-Rochelle-Marengo-Harvard-Madison. I first bit on the original round of development, there was one cluster with its tail-end cell showing a bit of a hook structure on reflectivity near Paw Paw so I exited I-39 to eastbound Chicago Road though Paw Paw. I was out of position on the wrong side of the cell relative to where the rain-free/updraft base/area of interest would be were it to become an actual supercell, so I went all the way east and then south on Leland Road to get a view. By this time it was already looking less interesting on radar and another cluster was filling in to its immediate south, and none of this seemed in any hurry to do anything (no warnings at this point). I decided to bail for a new cluster that was developing near/north of Kewanee so I went west on Suydam Road through Rollo and looped back to Paw Paw and I-39 to Mendota, then west on US 34 and northwest on US 52 to Sublette and Amboy. Then up to Franklin Grove and back to Rochelle, then on I-39 once again northbound to 64, through Esmond to Fairdale. I was eastbound on 72 between Kirkland and Kingston when the tornado warning went out for Boone County to my north. I had been keeping pace with the tail south end of the cluster, expecting that if anything was going to do something, that would be it. Instead it was the north end that went tornadic, although it didn't appear chaseable on radar (a big, bowing comma head with the couplet buried deep in the heavy rain) it was the only game in town and it was on my way home. I made a futile bid to catch up to it on 23 to Harvard, as it had a much more northerly than easterly component to its motion, but never could reach it before the warnings expired and I just took US-14 home, a nice way to avoid paying another toll on I-39/90.

Broke off the mediocre eastern cluster near Paw Paw, now sitting in Sublette to see if this stuff to my WSW or the stuff down by Peoria does anything. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk