CheeselandSkies

Once again here we are almost to June, and every thunderstorm I've seen this year was because I drove to it.

You see why I get skeptical that we can get sufficient moisture for significant up into this region in late (let alone early, i.e. Winterset '22) March.

Even 3/31?

Hmmmmmm... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_June_14–18,_1992 The CFS doesn't always show life, but when it does, it's generally been in that timeframe since it came into range.

Dry fropa FTL.

I can't believe this is actually his official Facebook picture.

If possible this May has managed to be even more boring than 2020-22. It used to be my favorite month for its volatile weather and thunder/threats. What is with these locked-in doldrums patterns/endless stretches of absolutely nothing to track? I mean, it's nice that it's pleasant outside but with the ultra-low dewpoints I'm on the verge of having the same dry skin issues I do in the winter.

The "Morch" and near-total lack of snow the preceding winter didn't help, I'm sure.

So bizarre to flip right from a historic (in some places) upper Mississippi flood, to the brink of drought. River flooding is nearly always driven at least in part by excessive rainfall, not exclusively by northern snowmelt. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Well despite the storms appearing to be petering out around the La Crosse area on radar yesterday evening, we actually got a decent round of rain overnight in southern Wisconsin (although no thunder that I noticed). Now a pretty solid NE-SW oriented band from SE WI down to around Savanna/Clinton. Looks like most locations west/southwest of there got screwed again, though. You'd think the transition away from La Nina would be helping us out more, like it is in parts of the western Plains.

Looks like any storms will be biting the dust well to the northwest of here.

As nice as it was to finally get on the board with a sig catch at Keota on 3/31, would appreciate a few more at least somewhat synoptically-evident regional chase opportunities that don't involve 50+ MPH storm motions. Still haven't seen a signal strong enough to take a week of PTO strictly for chasing. CFS keeps waffling about the week following Memorial Day.

If it ain't gonna in May, it might as well be like this: Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 50. West wind around 5 mph. Tuesday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Sunny, with a high near 78. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 67. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 41. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 75. South wind 10 to 15 mph. Thursday Night A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then a chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. South wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. Southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Saturday A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Sunday A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 45. Monday Sunny, with a high near 71.

Based on yesterday's Day 2 outlooks, wasn't expecting any part of WI to be in a slight risk today, lol.

There are some days where it pays to hold fast to your preconceived target area (like 3/31 for me, was planning to go to SE IA after getting off work at noon but overnight/morning of IL started to look much better according to CAMS which was tempting due to depicted later initation/slower upscale growth, would have cost me Keota that is in my avatar had I bit, as those simulated sups east of the MS formed but by and large did not produce photogenic ). Today is not one of those days. So much for OK/KS border. OK/TX border it is, for those chasing!

It's so weird to see a monster tornado on March 31, chase again four days later, then barely see a storm for another 5 weeks (would have been the entire period if not for April 20). This is why it was so hard for me to bite on early season setups at this latitude for so long (2/28/17, 3/5/22). After all, if we have trouble getting the juice for good storms up here in May...

Is the additional heavy, waterlogged snow in the UP going to melt into the upper MS watershed?

Has to be getting ready to do it, just south of Mart:

Didn't realize this until reading through NWS Chicago's summary page today, but apparently the Woodhaven Lakes campground near Amboy/Sublette, IL was hit by an EF2 on March 31st, same as they were on June 22, 2015 (same day as the Coal City-Braidwood EF3). Frame grab from my video looking toward the totally rain-wrapped 2015 tornado (small consolation for me at the time for missing Rochelle 2 months earlier).

Let's not.

Up to slight risk/5% prob. Cloud breaks showing up in southwest Wisconsin.

Getting some decent filtered sunshine in Madison early this morning. That big area of rain pushing through IA is a problem for late afternoon supercells, though. Action of the day might be if enough instability builds to allow the leading edge of that to intensify.

It's like Grand Island's Night of the Twisters for central Oklahoma.

Surprising to me that the leaders at PdC are 1965 and 2001, and La Crosse those years and 1952/69. In my mind 1993 and 2008 are the benchmarks of major river flooding in the upper Midwest, particularly the Mississippi.