CheeselandSkies

Is there even any point to SPC doing convective outlooks beyond Day 1 in July/August?

Great shot, Matt! Jealous. That was a weirdly structured storm. One of the reasons my view wasn't so good was because I kept trying to hug the southern flank where it would periodically look like a hook was trying to form. However the couplet was way off to the north, I assumed it would be buried in rain but it wasn't.

Yep, glimpsed that one but was a little too far away, too many trees lining the roads. If I wanted that I'd chase in Wisconsin! Actual grab instead of phone photo of my camcorder screen. Unfortunately only got a few seconds of usable video. It was also hard to keep up with the storm, despite the warning text saying it was moving at 35 MPH and I was mostly able to keep to main roads at 45-50 MPH and had pretty good luck with the traffic lights, I never seemed to gain any distance on them. Gave up at Bartlett Metra Station. I think the train video I took there is longer than my tornado video will end up being. This is from Silver Glen Rd. just east of Corron Rd., north of Campton Hills.

This was fun. Of course it waited until it was in the trees and then the burbs to produce, but this is why I stuck with it. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Looks like a cell has fired just WNW of here. Wasn't a lot of time for sunshine, though. Maybe @Chicago Storm was right. Gonna give it some time, though as impatience has burned me in the past (most notably 4/9/15). Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Sun coming out in Davis Jct. Warm front must be here. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Gonna sit tight in Davis Jct., IL for a little while. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Found the NOAA one. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector.php?sat=G16&sector=umv

Tropical Tidbits has a CONUS visible loop. I can't zoom in on the Midwest region but you can see some clearing nosing into NW IL. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=us&product=vis_swir

COD visible loop is stuck at 15:16Z (10:16 AM CDT) for some reason, anyone have another good source for satellite? ...at first I thought that recovery wasn't gonna happen.

This is what I meant with my (partially) tounge-in-cheek observation; that predictability of severe weather in the summer is such that even as recently as the overnight hours, today was looking like a wash for severe potential north of I-80 in IL. The flip side of this of course, is that it makes it near impossible to plan chases/take PTO in advance. For me, it's local enough that I can head out with my 3A-noon shift.

Hmmm...

That front part of the main echo northwest of the Quad Cities almost looks like a huge supercell with debris ball...almost.

Looks like some stuff is pushing into at least southwest WI after all...we'll see how well it holds together.

Enhanced risk upgrade for wind with the Iowa MCS, looks like a miss south again for I-80 and north.

Models yesterday showing rain/storms over southern WI this morning were completely wrong. The sun's out.

At least it looks good for rain and thunder tomorrow morning. If this MCS were better-timed we'd have greater severe chances, but we'll take what we can get at this point. Pinning my hopes on the general level of predictability for severe weather in the summer...

Pretty weak north of wherever the second MCS on Wednesday tracks, which as @hawkeye_wx alluded to in another thread, will probably be further south than most of us would like. Sadly, just the fact that there's a pretty good chance for thunder is better than we've done for most of this year. Edit: NAM now has even the first MCS going south of the state line Wednesday morning.

Yup. Google Street View shows it was there by July of 2018.

Caught a twilight glimpse of the Trivoli EF2 from the Casey's gas station on the west edge of Hanna City that day. I wanted to stay put and shoot it, or even drive a little north up IL-78 to try and get around the tree line, but my chase partner at the time (who was driving) freaked out a bit and wanted to keep driving east to stay ahead of it. So we let it go in the darkness and never did see it again.

Yeah. GFS has pretty strong WNW 500mb flow for the time of year over us next Tuesday/Wednesday, but suggests instability will be lacking. Despite being a career chase for me, March 31 is too damn early for our season to start and finish.

Actually looking like we might get more rain than expected late this afternoon and tonight... Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

Severe thunderstorm warning for a little pop-up hailer. Timed just perfectly to pour on my 10-minute commute home from work. We'll take what we can get, but these teensy popcorn things ain't gonna make a dent in this drought.

SPC has much of WI highlighted in the Day 4 outlook. They're the professionals, but I'm not really seeing it. NAM/GFS soundings for Wednesday look pretty mediocre. Could be some isolated wind/hail but not worthy of a Day 4 areal highlight IMO.

Yeah. I thought that was only ever gonna be an issue when trying to chase the Plains with Mexican fire smoke blowing in. 5/20/2019, the updraft base of the supercell that was about to produce the Mangum, OK EF2 crossed US 62 1-2 miles west of me and I couldn't make out any structure whatsoever. Thus I waited too long to move, got caught in the chaser conga line and never did see the tornado.