CheeselandSkies

Upcoming pattern shift gives some hope the West will get some snow soon...but yeah that's not good.

One thing I've come to learn, after considering it a dirty word following '14 and '18, is that not all SSWEs are created equal (as in, they don't always put the cold into our neck of the woods, which I'd be just fine with given the brutal stretch we're only just finally coming out of).

It...might snow tonight.

Maybe I've missed it, but if not I'm surprised no one has mentioned it's the 15th anniversary of GHD I.

Tangentially related: I thought my 3 1/2-year old desktop computer (Bought in summer 2022, previous one lasted nearly 10 years and only died because the power supply burned up because I'd let the fan get completely clogged with dust) was shitting the bed. Starting about two months ago it would randomly freeze, regardless of what I was doing (even just reading a site like this forum, as the only tab in Firefox and no other programs open). It would either reboot without warning, or just abruptly go completely unresponsive to mouse and keyboard inputs and require a hard reboot. Sometimes it would go an hour or two, other times (and this was seemingly becoming more and more frequent) it would do it every five-ten minutes. I opened up the case and vacuumed out the fans (they were somewhat dusty, but far from clogged), ran the hardware diagnostics and everything came back good, installed all the BIOS and driver updates that were available. None of it made any difference and as a last resort before taking it to a repair shop, I went out and bought a $130 UPS/battery backup at Best Buy to plug it (and the monitor, and my external HDDs, etc) into. Lo and behold, we're coming up on 48 hours of up time since I did this after work on Friday, and NO ABRUPT FREEZES/REBOOTS!

Couple of weeks ago I was seeing maps that said AA temps for Feb. Shocker.

12Z GFS is disgusting. Endless CAD through the end of the run. Although *at least* the last 200 hours of each run of that model are a total crapshoot, I'd really prefer a different look at some point.

As long as it doesn't last for 8 weeks straight.

That wasp @A-L-E-K photographed better have skedaddled back to its hibernation hidey-hole.

*Looks at 18Z GFS and cries* I HATE prolonged deep cold. Looks like those flagging the 2013-'14 similarities were right. Can only hope unlike that year it breaks in time to not totally bollocks season apart from a 3-day sequence in mid-F*CKING JUNE.

Yeah. I work in local news and based on our mets' forecasts I was not expecting it to snow at all yesterday beyond the early morning.

On top of that, it snowed most of the rest of the day yesterday (which was NOT forecast). We actually set a daily record due to the ridiculous ratios. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1ZDN338aPL/

Just like it is in the opposite direction for warm fronts/tornadic supercells, with very rare exceptions.

I should just go back to using the NCAR model site that was the first one I ever came across, still looks like it did in 2006 and the GFS only goes out to 192 hours.

Looks like most of it comes from a wound up storm system that tracks from AR to the NC/SC border from FH246-270. Verbatim would support some severe weather in LA/MS on the 23rd, too.

On nearly every chase day I've had where I've seen tornadoes, or was within striking distance of tornadoes but missed them due to being dumb, I've seen that sky when approaching/arriving in the target area.

Unfortunate waste of potential in both the and departments. Could have done something significant with a little more antecedent cold air to pull in on the back side and different timing/better lapse rates in the warm sector.

Yeah, those should definitely be in winter hibernation. Founding queen of Vespula germanica (German yellowjacket).

I have Friday off. Why couldn't this system be about 6-7 hours slower?

Oh, *bleep*. Hard pass on that look for me.

Hey, by the last day of March 2023 I was shooting in Iowa so I'll take it.

Bunch of people rushed out and bought snowblowers for the end of November storm; now won't use them again for 5 years.

Here's the thing though. May not be true for other parts of the sub, but here in Wisconsin we can be solidly AA in Jan/Feb and it's still cold enough to snow. I'm firmly part of the camp who can do without the extended periods of barely cracking 10°F.

From wind chills in the -20s today and tomorrow to...that. The phrase "averages are merely a mean of extremes" comes to mind. Between the first and second halves, this month will likely show up as close to "normal" temperature-wise around these parts when all is said and done, but it will say absolutely nothing about the conditions actually experienced on any given day.