George BM

6 minutes ago, NoVaWx said:

Snow flurries here

Yeah. I'm getting some pixie dust flakes here in Herndon.

NANI?!!

@WxWatcher007

Who in the floppy flap jacks gave you the right to steal MY tradition of being the ridiculous weenie here?!

MINE MINE MINE!!! 

Think you can take my last place prize from me this year can ya?! Well perhaps you did! This is a blatant act of WAR that you have declared on me and my kin! You win NOTHING!!! 

We will see a repeat of 2013-2014 and I will finally be declared SUPREME LEADER  er... WINNER of the snowfall contest! 

@PrinceFrederickWx

I'll be waiting for you with my prize in the spring... 

... DON'T BE LATE!

Meteorological (or Climatological ) Winter is upon us!

The Great Mid-Atlantic Arctic Severe Squall Event of 2020

Note: Tornadoes were not at their peak intensity along their whole path as the tornado path lines may falsely imply.

IAD got down to 28F this morning. RIP one-minute obs at IAD.

A coating of frost is on the grass.

Woooohoooo NFC East leaders! 

Ignore the current stats though. 

19 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Has to be closer to a record high today

Record is 74 for today at DCA. 

...and 75F at IAD and 72F at BWI.

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

Lost power briefly around 315, thunder and lightning when it happened. 

Close lightning/loud thunder or just visible lightning/audible thunder?

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How long until the rug pull?

12z runs on Sat, Nov 28th, 2020. So three days.

40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I remember one legit one, when I lived in Carroll county. Strong cold front with heavy snow squalls(and thunder) where it melted on the roads for like the first 5-10 mins as temps crashed.

Hmmmm.... did that happen to be the January 25, 1985 event?

Multiple-Hot-Threads-At-Once season is upon us! 

So... nobody's going to talk about the GFS parallel giving us our December 5th snow event? 

@MN Transplant  

I'm actually surprised that DCA made it considering that it was a calm night.

On 11/17/2020 at 9:03 PM, Always in Zugzwang said:

OK, to throw another hypothetical out there.  In your "ideal" winter, pick 3 HECS-level storms that you would want to occur during that season.  For instance, pick from (just throwing some out there that I'm familiar with offhand, no particular order, there are surely others...)

(1) Feb. 1979 PD-1

(2) Feb. 1983 "Megalopolitan Storm"

(3) Jan. 1996

(4) Feb. 16-17, 2003 PD-2

(5) Feb. 5-6, 2010

(6) Feb. 9-10, 2010

(7) Dec. 18-19, 2009

(8) Jan. 22-23, 2016

I think I'd go with 5, 7, 8 myself.  But they're all great!

AND, for a bonus.  What MODERATE level events would you like to have, if you could pick 3 to occur in a winter?...too many to list, probably, and I'm sure I don't remember them all.  But offhand I'll state (in no order)...Jan. 30, 2010, Feb. 11-12, 2014, Mar. 16-17, 2014.  Mar. 5, 2015 would be close, too, and maybe should be on my list.

I'll order number 1, 2 and 5... for the rates. Seeing 4-6"+/hr snowfall rates for hours would something special to experience. 

18 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

OK, so let's go the other way...

(1) A winter like last year, with one really small event that you would have missed if you sneezed.  But with the enticing prospect of perhaps *something* on the horizon and even some cold air incursions to give a winter feel.

or

(2) An all-out true shutout, where it's late fall most every day and really no chance of any event at all.  Oh, and even with the warmth, no mosquitos as the crisp nighttime temperatures would have killed them off at least!

Definitely number 2. I'm probably one of 5-10 people on this subforum who's actually been hoping for a complete shutout with warmth all winter this season. It's been known for a very long time that median snow totals are the best that snowlovers can reasonably hope for. With the La Nina and the potential of a stronger PV we should go for the record least snowfall. A repeat of the February 7th mini-tornado outbreak would be awesome! All that being said, if it becomes clear that a significant snow event is in the cards in the shorter range and rates look like they will be on the epic side (See my posts about December 19th) I'll root for it. 

Good morning.

There hasn't been a radar image from LWX since 9:47am local time this morning...

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Must have because it was crystal clear when I went to bed and crystal clear again at dawn.

Yeap. Can confirm looking at this shortwave IR satellite loop.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Virginias-07-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

According to the nearest PWS, I got down to 27F around 3AM and then rose to 43F  by 430, then fell back down to 33 before sunrise.  WTF.

And now up to 47F an hour later.  ??  The wind is cranking here - again.

Between 3am and 4:30am is when cloud cover moved over YBY. You had probably decoupled allowing the temperature to fall to 27F. But when the clouds moved over you the added insulation allowed the warmer air just above the surface to mix down to the surface ( it probably got a bit breezy during that time there). Then those clouds moved away from you after 4:30am allowing radiational cooling to start doing it's work again.

6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Lost a bunch of shingles but it was too dark this morning to really see from where.  Hopefully just from the  shed roof .

Finally a flush hit for you...

In all seriousness I hope the damage isn't too bad there.

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Wind gusts to 56 mph . Shit blowing everywhere 

Awesome! Are you getting much rain?

SEL1

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 511
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   530 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Delaware
     Central and eastern Maryland
     New Jersey
     Southeastern Pennsylvania
     Northeastern Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 530 PM until
   1100 PM EST.

   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...and DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
   statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast
   of Allentown PA to 50 miles southeast of Washington DC. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

STW now out.

Hmmm... Dulles is up to 70F now which is higher than CAMs had the temperature reaching. The dewpoint is a little bit low though at 57F.

We've been Slighted in much of the region east of the mountains.

..LOWER GREAT LAKES TO MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST    

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI INTO   WESTERN OH WITH A HISTORY OF WIDESPREAD STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE   WIND GUSTS. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO FURTHER INTENSIFY   OWING TO BOUNDARY-LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S WITHIN A NARROW   SPATIAL CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION. IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY   OUTPACE THIS NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AS IT SPREADS   EAST/NORTH OF LAKE ERIE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.    

A MORE PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 21-23Z   FROM CENTRAL NY TO CENTRAL VA AND SWEEP EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE   NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITHIN AN   INTENSE SHEAR/MINIMALLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT. THIS SQUALL SHOULD   DEVELOP AS THE ROBUST COLD FRONT IMPINGES ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE   ADVECTING NORTH FROM THE CAROLINAS/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. BETWEEN   00-03Z, MID 50S BOUNDARY-LAYER DEW POINTS SHOULD REACH AS FAR NORTH   AS EASTERN PA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE TRACK OF SECONDARY   CYCLOGENESIS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN   WEAKER RELATIVE TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, THE COMPARATIVELY   RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD COMPENSATE. IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT   LIGHTNING GENERATION MAY BE CONFINED TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH AMID   SCANT ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND GREATER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.   NEVERTHELESS, THE PRESENCE OF A LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE AMID 50-60 KT   925-MB WINDS SUGGEST STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE EVEN   IN THE ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING. AS SUCH, THIS REGION HAS BEEN UPGRADED   TO SLIGHT RISK.    

..GRAMS/DEAN.. 11/15/2020