George BM

58 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Ehhh

Pulled my shoulder muscle yesterday after trying to cinch a girth on the side with no elastic. Note to self check to see if said girth has elastic on both sides before you cinch. 

Ouch. Take care and treat yourself, as always. 

Good morning weather family! How did you all sleep last night? 

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

can it snow during a severe outbreak? I'm hopeful we get one of those snowrecho thingies.

I've been trying to weenie it up for a while now. Years actually. It'd be fun to have a day with temps/dews in the lower 40's/upper 20's-30F respectively along with extremely steep low-mid level lapse rates leading to MLCAPE of ~500 J/kg and a powerful NS shortwave swinging through during the afternoon at 60-70+ mph. 

This would form a line of severe thunderstorms with snow as the main precip-type along with widespread severe wind gusts. 

Were you around for the December 19th super snowrecho just over two months ago?

Good morning weather family! I just have a quick question for you all?

Is anyone else getting an error message saying that they're offline from tropicaltidbits.com ? 

Just now, WVclimo said:

We were overrun with cicadas  in western MD in 1970.  I've seen them twice since then and neither time has compared to that year.

How many would you guessitmate were on the ground per square meter in the 1970 outbreak?

4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I don't know, but PSU might be fringed.   Then end up with some serious cicada banding only to have more than everyone else!

You mean like 2 to 3+ cicadas per cubic meter type banding?

7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

FWIW - Accuweather seems to think we are at increased severe risk this spring. 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/accuweathers-2021-us-spring-severe-weather-tornado-forecast/901242 

This probably means almost nothing but I remember the uncanny resemblance with Accuweather's "active severe weather" zone for the summer of 2012 with the path of the June 29-30, 2012 derecho. 

Bah! I tried finding their summer 2012 forecast but can't att. 

May we get an area-wide squall with widespread severe gusts this year.

40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

liquid freon gas

I'm guessing that based on the reactions to this post that this wasn't the true meaning... and I fell for it lol. 

ETA: Okay many are saying something different wrt LFG. I must be slower than I thought. 

What is LFG? It's been said a lot and I'm curious?

38.966, -77.412

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

WWA's extended to include 95.

Yeap.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
843 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

MDZ008-011-504-506-508-VAZ052-053-506-222000-
/O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-210222T2000Z/
Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Eastern Loudoun-
843 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Rapid onset of snow which will result in snow covered
  roadways. Snow accumulations of up to one inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland and northern
  Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

38 minutes ago, CAPE said:

C'mon this is a helluva setup for the lowlands. 

Hmmm... I don't know about that. Instability looks too low for a decent convective severe threat down there. If dews were a bit higher then I'd agree. 

38 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The source for me is almost completely on the back side of my property, and is maybe an acre of area at its most expansive, so as long as I do the work in early Spring, I can pretty much mitigate an awful summer of skeeters. It usually dries up by early summer.  Last year I did get the late summer tiger bastards, but that was a function of the incredible above normal wet period we had east of I-95.

I wish I'd saved the image someone posted late last year. The difference in how far above average areas east of I-95 and how far below average areas west of I-95 were wrt rainfall was very stark. 

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

You, me and WxWatcher are now the Negro League.   We get one more and we've got ourselves an R and B quartet.  

Whaddup, peeps?!

On 2/15/2021 at 12:27 PM, George BM said:

Dec 7,9,14,25/2020: T

Dec 16-17, 2020: 2.1"

Dec 18, 2020: 0.2"

Jan 5, 2021: T

Jan 18, 2021: T

Jan 20, 2021: 0.1"

Jan 25-26, 2021: 0.2"

Jan 31- Feb 3, 2021: 5.0"

Feb 4-5, 9/ 2021: T

Feb 7, 2021: 2.4"

Feb 10-11, 2021: 0.4" snow/sleet

Feb 13, 2021: 0.2" sleet

Total as of Feb 15, 2021: 10.6"

Dec 7,9,14,25/2020: T

Dec 16-17, 2020: 2.1"

Dec 18, 2020: 0.2"

Jan 5, 2021: T

Jan 18, 2021: T

Jan 20, 2021: 0.1"

Jan 25-26, 2021: 0.2"

Jan 31- Feb 3, 2021: 5.0"

Feb 4-5, 9/ 2021: T

Feb 7, 2021: 2.4"

Feb 10-11, 2021: 0.4" snow/sleet

Feb 13, 2021: 0.2" sleet

Feb 18, 2021: 1.0" sleet (some pea-sized sleet for a time around 10am)

Total as of Feb 18, 2021: 11.6"

28 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It truly becomes just a friendlier, less "misery loves company" group for severe. That thread will probably be dormant for a month or more...For now I've just been occasionally peeking at monthly modeling to see what H5 pattern we might see for the warm months. 

...Any potenial H5 patterns standing out to you atm?

Just now, Kleimax said:

At what point does this become hail

 That looks exactly like the sleet/ mangled-flake? I just measured. I measured some ice chunks between 0.25-0.5" across. 

Probably pea-sized hail- uhh  I mean sleet over the past 10-15 minutes in Herndon w/ some flakes mixing in around 10am.

Snow mixing in w/ the sleet now in Herndon.

90/10 sleet/snow.

29/12 at IAD. 

On 2/8/2021 at 8:53 AM, George BM said:

Dec 7,9,14,25/2020: T

Dec 16-17, 2020: 2.1"

Dec 18, 2020: 0.2"

Jan 5, 2021: T

Jan 18, 2021: T

Jan 20, 2021: 0.1"

Jan 25-26, 2021: 0.2"

Jan 31- Feb 3, 2021: 5.0"

Feb 4-5, 2021: T

Feb 7, 2021: 2.4"

Total as of Feb 8, 2021: 10.0"

Dec 7,9,14,25/2020: T

Dec 16-17, 2020: 2.1"

Dec 18, 2020: 0.2"

Jan 5, 2021: T

Jan 18, 2021: T

Jan 20, 2021: 0.1"

Jan 25-26, 2021: 0.2"

Jan 31- Feb 3, 2021: 5.0"

Feb 4-5, 9/ 2021: T

Feb 7, 2021: 2.4"

Feb 10-11, 2021: 0.4" snow/sleet

Feb 13, 2021: 0.2" sleet

Total as of Feb 15, 2021: 10.6"

Looking at soundings for late tonight - pre-dawn tomorrow, with some elevated instability I wouldn't entirely be surprised if a few heard thunder especially east of I-95. 

Well... looking at soundings for late tonight - pre-dawn tomorrow, with some elevated instability I wouldn't entirely be surprised if a few heard thunder especially east of I-95. 

#SOON 

#Aroundthecorner