George BM

Clearing.

A low risk of some thunder and perhaps some gusty winds tomorrow depending on the amount of sunshine we can get. Low-level lapse rates look steep... with mid-level lapse rates looking somewhat steep as well. 

And FWIW... SPC doesn't even have us in a 10% thunder risk for tomorrow so... 

Drink safely!

Meteorological Spring is upon us! 

@WxWatcher007 What is your guesstimate of the maximum snowfall rates that you've encountered up their over the past few days?

Have you heard any thunder or seen any lightning?

47 minutes ago, mappy said:

alright, with Met spring 2 days away its time to focus on this. Do I even bother?

What say you all: Map or no map? 

I personally say (if you have the time) Map. Go for it.

If the surface low of that mid next week system can track just off to our northwest lots of models have some impressive wind fields. CAPE would be the main question though mainly because of warmer low/mid-level temperatures... and also climo in general (it's still on the early side)...

Though the February 7th system probably has a few choice words for me about that "climo" statement.

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I wonder if they are a bit gun shy after missing one of the largest winter tornado events in the Mid Atlantic the other week.

They made a reference to that event in the 1630z update.

Day 2 MRGL wind in southern zones.

@Kmlwx Indeed I am.

June 23rd is around the corner.

6 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Destined to flip at some point. Likely just in time for spring. April is bound to be rainy and raw. 

Knowing our luck... probably.

My ideal pattern over the next couple months, say through June, would be for this pattern to last through early May. Then the NAO will tank to strongly negative from say May 10th onward while a ridge builds into western Canada over a trough in the western US (-EPO/-PNA) allowing for a ridge to build over the southern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the nation east of the Rockies while a trough gets locked in between the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay in response to the ridge nosing into western Canada(-EPO) AND the ridge over Greenland (-NAO). Think May 30-31, 1998 but through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic instead.

I just hope that we can keep this general pattern over the next couple of months. 

1 hour ago, mappy said:

We had a June 23rd tornado outbreak? where was I for that? 

and thanks! I'm guessing you've seen my work recently? 

Yes. I’ve actually seen your work occasionally for the past few years now.

As for the June 23 tornado/derecho event I actually posted a radar image of it at the very beginning of this thread as the event was getting underway locally.

Finally, I should think that you were around for it. But I may be mistaken... it was a time of year where lots of people travel after all. 

2 hours ago, mappy said:

i dont think @George BM is going to win  

Well see how things look after our back to back HECSs on March 29th and April 1st. 

Also on a slightly (emphasis on slightly) more serious note... I'm really looking forward to your map of the June 23rd Tornado Outbreak/Derecho Blowdown event in this region. You are very good at what you do. 

Many of us always thought that the 2012 derecho was as extreme as it gets severe-wise around here. Boy was that wrong in a big way...

In other words... yeah I'm not winning. 

On 12/4/2019 at 8:28 AM, George BM said:

11/12: T (Flakes from time to time)

12/4: T (I woke up to wet ground. But with yellow/orange returns over me on radar overnight there were probably some wet snow flakes.)

Snow total as of December 4, 2019: T

12/11: 0.3"

12/16: 0.3"

1/07: 2.4"

1/18: 0.4"

Total as of 2/21/2020: 3.4"

On 2/15/2020 at 9:11 PM, nw baltimore wx said:

On 2/15/2020 at 8:44 PM, losetoa6 said:

Did u ever go to Midnight madness back in the day at Cole . I went from  92' - 95' . Lots of good memories. 

Never been. It probably didn’t help that I was an incoming freshman at 28 years old and had to retake 20 credits from the classes that I ditched back in ‘81.

Wait... you're all the way up there?! 

...

Also, happy 1,000th to me! 

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think/hope some of the guidance bashing is just frustration.  IMO the guidance has been magnificent this year.  The NWP guidance nailed the overall winter patter from months in advance while some of the analog and SST based guidance failed miserably.  Furthermore, for the most part 99% of the time the guidance has been showing us a total fail crap pattern, and that is what we have had.  Any "hope" was only when we were trying hard and buying into an odd run or two that usually didn't have much ensemble support...or buying into some crazy long range day 15 fantasy that was only there for a run or two.  From day 10 on in the models have pretty much shown the crap we have had all winter long.  And even the rare fluke "threats" we tried to invent out of this awful pattern never made it inside day 5.  With all the possible permutations there will always be the odd run or two of operations or minority clusters of ensembles that show a "threat" in the long range...but truth is there was NEVER majority support from both a longwave pattern AND individual guidance runs to say a snow was likely.  

I suppose if all anyone did was glance at the day 15 GEFS they might think guidance was not so good...but even the GEFS never looked great...and we KNOW the GEFS (as well as the nwe op FV3 GFS) has an extreme cold bias.  So taking the day 15 GEFS at face value is user error not guidance error.  That is like knowing your car alignment is a little off to the right and refusing to correct and complaining when every 100 yards you run off the road.  Yea the tool was not perfect...but you still are more to blame.  

 

Funny. My car alignment actually IS a little off to the right. 

...

I'm sure most people do have a slight alignment issue with there car though. So probably not to big of a coincidence to have it mentioned.

12 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I hope we get an 8" wind driven rainstorm in March. It's never fantasy when it comes to rain.

In other words... a fairly decent tropical hit.  I abscond. 

Wallops Island launch will take place at 3:21pm est. Less than 15 minutes from now.

...

Assuming it's not scrubbed again of course.

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Very cool event. Ended up with 3" here in less than an hour. Kicked off a great late run winter period. If only we could repeat that. Sigh..

 

Not going to lie... you threw me in a loop for a second there... until I read the end of the post.

Yeah 5 years ago at this moment the heaviest part of that snow squall was getting ready to wind down here. It was my favorite minor snow event here for sure.

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why?

Wallops Island launch in less than two minutes 5:39pm.

ETA: Scrubbed. 

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Sun angle kicking in. My solar panels are producing at the highest rate since early November. 

PSA from Captain Obvious:

Which of course makes sense because the sun angle is the same now as it is it during the first few days of November.

Fin

Currently the temperature is 49F under sunny skies.

Dewpoint: 24F

IAD