George BM

PDS Tornado Watch 333 in effect until 9PM EDT June 23 2020

Hazards: 

Numerous long-track intense tornadoes likely

Numerous significant wind gusts to 105 mph likely

Widespread large hail with scattered giant hail events to 4" in diameter likely 

Discussion: 

A well-developed and intense MCS/derecho continues to move through much of West Virginia AOA 65kts. The environment within the watch area is characterized by extreme instability (MLCAPE 6000+ J/kg), impressive shear (EBWD 60-80 kts), high moisture content (Pwats of 2-2.25"+) and strong DCAPE (1200-1500+ J/kg). As the MCS moves into the mountains additional supercells are expected to rapidly develop by 19-20z along the foothills/Blue ridge ahead of the main line and move east through the DC and Baltimore metropolitan areas. With the very strong low-level shear also in place (effective SRH of 300-600 m2/s2) these cells will have the greatest risk of producing long-track strong to violent tornadoes as well as very large to giant hail. The greatest wind threat over this region will come with the main line of storms between 20-23z with high-end severe winds (possibly in excess of 100 mph). Storms will move out of the watch area by 00z.

Forecaster: George BM

8 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Happy Birthday George!

7 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Happy B-day, BM!

6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Happy birthday, @George BM!

Many thanks to you all for the birthday wishes, Weather family! 

Congrats intermountain NW?

10 hours ago, high risk said:

nice work, everyone!    I remember that event quite well.    I was warning people at work not to be on the roads at rush hour.    That alert didn't work out too well......

I'm just glad that I was not old enough (4 years old) to remember that debacle of an 'event'. 

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Raining in my yard now.

#sprinkler

How much rain has your yard picked up so far this morning?

9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Wow - that was a quick recall. 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/watch.phtml?year=2000&num=666

Anybody have the watch text?

Yeap.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 666
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MARYLAND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
CENTRASL AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS. ALSO...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 95 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
MORGANTOWN WEST VIRGINIA TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BALTIMORE
MARYLAND.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION... CONTINUE...WW 665...

DISCUSSION...INTENSE BOW ECHO OVER SERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE EWD AT 55 KT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WITH WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. ACTIIVTY WILL REACH THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
DC AREA AROUND 5 PM.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 27055.

8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

What month was that?

August.

August 9, 2000 to be exact. It was even Severe Thunderstorm Watch 666. Lol.

For todays risk look out for how much high level cloud cover we get from the storms currently developing in the Carolinas. 

It's the most humid day of the year so far.

It's the first 70+F dewpoint day of the year.

There hasn't been a MOD or HIGH risk issued anywhere in the country this month from SPC. Quiet indeed. 

One time period that I'll watch is following the cool shot at the beginning of next week. As a ridge tries to build in during the week watch for any potential NW-flow event.

Small note: Some of the 0z convective models hint at scattered storms/convection trying to develop tomorrow afternoon from Bertha. There looks like there will be some low-level shear (not super impressive LLshear but some LLshear). If storms can develop tomorrow there might be a risk of gusty winds and perhaps a rotating meso or two. 

#Notanexpertopinion

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Time for a new mower. The Briggs & Stratton on my walk behind SP mower just threw a rod lol. Big hole in the side of the block and what looks like a bolt from the connecting rod/cap is laying on the mower deck.

Any recommendations on a self propelled push mower? This one is a Snapper and worked fine for 7 years, outside of needing some carb cleaning.

I just got a new Honda HRN216VKA self-propelled push mower (a durable mower) after the Toro that we had since 2003 finally gave up the ghost last month if this adds anything of value for you.

^There's a tropical wave with a surface trough affecting Cuba and Florida with heavy rains now. A few models actually try to spin-up something weak (probably too weak for any tropical classification) from this. This would be especially true if the disturbance moves off the east coast of Florida, Georgia and into the Carolinas. Regardless, this would result in the high Pwats in the region by mid/late week.

#Notanexpertopinion

BWI: 110F

DCA: 111F

IAD: 111F

RIC: 112F

@H2O Happy 49ing!...Or is it 50ing?

I'm pretty sure it's forty-nining IIRC. 

2 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

Decided to draw myself a hurricane in the GoM because I was bored:

Is this a future storm in the GOM this year? Also, do we get some decent remnants from it up here?

2 hours ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

For the hikers/park people on here, check for ticks after going out. Found two on me today when I got home from work! ughhh 

21 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

And I pulled one of of me this morning.....they are out there thick this year!

I should probably start checking myself for ticks from time to time... especially considering that I occasionally walk/hike/run through tall grass and weeds in my local park (I like going through the wilderness off the paved surfaces).

48 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The tropical low is going to miss east, and high pressure from eastern Canada will have an opening to build southward down the east coast. With that, the upper low will dig and cutoff well west. The good rains will be in the mountains south and west of our region. SW burbs of DC have the best chance in the metro area of seeing some decent rain this week, while places further north and east, like my yard, its gonna be paltry.

Don't forget places immediately to your east and southeast like VA beach, the lower Virginia peninsula and Delaware getting into Arthur's rains as well. 

8 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

But was it good though?

I've never drank once in my life before.

IAD got down to 34F this morning. I noticed some patchy frost on roofs here. (Herndon)

34 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Well, I was proven wrong! Another March in May day to savor before inferno gets cranking over the weekend. Just back from up there again, 33 degrees and heavy clouds and 20-30 mph winds. Walked Bear Loop trail. Not another soul around. About as good as it can get in my book.

I read somewhere this morning that someone (CAPE maybe?) was looking for a place that doesn't hit 90 and has snow basically year round? Not a cheap place, but I can throw out Summit county CO from a personal experience. SLIGHTLY cheaper is going just south into Park county. 

It was 43 this morning here at the house, climbed to 46 about 1pm and now has been falling last 2 hours. Currently 44.8 degrees.

Minus the rain, this has been an epic stretch of weather for you.

Someone has been time-traveling I see. 

Despite being down to 33F by the 1am hour that's where IAD bottomed out this morning.

3 hours ago, DCTeacherman said:

But hey we can still track 90+ heat with 75 dewpoints. 

2 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Indeed.  We will over perform on that. BECH...Biblical East Coast Heatwave.  

2 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

Of course we go right into summer from the 5 months of March we just had. @BristowWx I'm saving that term lol. I love it. BECH all the way from May 15 to October 15 game on

Let us be near the northern/northeastern periphery of the biblical heat and humidity with a 750-400mb WNW flow of at least 50-60+kts, MLCAPE of at least 5,000 J/kg, DCAPE AOA 1500 J/kg, and steep mid-level lapse rates. Then come August through October let us be near the west-end of a monster Bermuda High with an Ohio Valley trough stuck to our west so some fun spinny cloud masses will train up the eastern seaboard.

Then it will REALLY be "Game On". 

IAD is down to 33F so far.