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George BM

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Posts posted by George BM

  1. 8 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

    Here’s another theoretical question: if you had to choose between clear skies partial or complete cloudy totality, which do you pick?

    I'd personally go with a completely cloudy totality. To see it go pitch black night in the middle of the afternoon is certainly quite the experience regardless of the weather... IMO at least.

    • Thanks 1
  2. 12/06/2023: T (brief light graupel (~2:25pm))

    12/11/2023: 0.9" ( Fairly heavy wet snow overnight... heaviest between 2:45 and 3:35am)

    1/01/2024: T (Flurries w/ some graupel from late morning into the afternoon before changing to very light rain/drizzle)

    1/06/2024: T (Morning sleet w/ few flakes before changing into a cold soaking afternoon rain)

    1/14/2024: T (Moderate snow squall around 11am. Some ground whitening at the bottom of fences)

    1/15-16/2024: 4.5" (Light snow started in the 2am hour (15th) continued mostly uninterrupted as flurries/light snow rimmed flakes through the day. Picked up to moderate at times between 7-11pm. Some light snow/freezing drizzle continued into the wee hours of the 16th. Freezing drizzle continues as of this morning.)

    1/19/2024: 4.1" (Snow started in the 2am hour<-- (sound familiar?) and was moderate to maybe even modestly heavy at times (heaviest rates in the 5am hour (~1"/hr)). Flurries to light snow between 6am and 9am followed by light to occasionally moderate snow between 9am and 11am. Snow slowly tapered down to flurries through the early/mid afternoon before briefly mostly ceasing in the 3pm hour. Moderate snow squalls moved through during the 4pm hour.)

    2/13/2024: 0.6" (Following a roughly 5-7am lull in the rain, precip changed over to snow between 7:10am and 7:20am w/ moderate to moderate/heavy snow until it was nearing 9am followed by light snow until around 9:30am. Temp bottomed out at 34F.)

    2/17/2024: 1.5" (Snow started in the 12am hour (could've been a few raindrops mixed in). The snow became fairly heavy during the 1am hour (1-1.5"/hr rates), continued light/moderate during the 2am hour and mostly tapered off by 3am.

    2/24/2024: T (Flurries between 5pm and 6:15pm. Briefly up to flurries/very light snow intensity around 6pm w/ slightly bigger flakes.) 

    3/10/2024: T (Occasional wet flurries between 4:25pm and 5:30pm. Briefly at flurry/very light snow intensity w/ few raindrops mixed in between 5:17pm and 5:25pm.)

    2023-2024 winter total as of Mar 12, 2024: 11.6"

  3. 1 minute ago, katabatic said:

    Greetings again from Donner! This epic storm continues. The entire front of the condo building has now disappeared. We’ve been taking turns at an entrance on the windward side, keeping that open (well, kinda) so at least we can get outside. To get this picture, I waded through waist to chest high snow. I have done multiple lake effect chases so I have seen some pretty intense snow but earlier today we had a thunderstorm that easily dropped 4 or 5 inches in 30 minutes. Still no power, no plow and no internet (phone works!) but warm and well fed. What a once in a lifetime experience for someone who loves this stuff. 

    IMG_1641.jpeg

    Wild wild west.

    • Like 2
  4. Forecast Discussion

    Saturday, March 16, 2024 3:28PM EDT

    Blizzard Warning in effect from 8AM EDT Sunday, March 17, 2024 until 3PM EDT Monday, March 18, 2024

    High Wind Warning in effect from 9AM EDT Sunday, March 17, 2024 until 6PM EDT Monday, March 18, 2024

    Hurricane-Force Wind Warning in effect from 2PM EDT Sunday, March 17, 2024 until 6AM EDT Monday, March 18, 2024 (for tidal-Potomac and Chesapeake Bay)

     

    Life-Threatening Late-Winter Storm to cripple the region.

    Temps are currently holding in the mid-50sF across the DC metro area but are already starting to fall in far northern Maryland as the cold front associated with the strong northern stream system drops south through the region. Temps will plummet out of the 50s and through the 40s and 30s through the evening and reach the lower 20s in many areas by morning as the unusually cold airmass pushes in. As this occurs through the late afternoon and evening hours skies will become overcast both from lift associated with the southward moving cold front and from the strong southern stream system to our south/southwest. There may be enough lift and moisture associated with the front for some light sprinkles and/or a few flurries/light snow showers to develop through the evening before precip slips to the southeast. Northerly winds will become quite gusty during this time with gusts of 25 to 40 mph.

    As the strong southern storm system moves toward the coastal Carolinas tonight it will begin to phase with a second powerful northern stream vort diving south from the eastern Great Lakes/ Toronto region leading to strong diffluence over the surface low leading to rapid deepening. The two will pinwheel around each other as they phase bringing the southern storm and associated surface low northwards as rapid deepening takes place allowing snow to overspread the region by morning from southeast to northwest. The snow will quickly become heavy as NE winds increase with gusts to over 50 mph across the region likely by midday. Temperatures during this time will be in the lower 20sF leading to windchills in the single digits. By the late afternoon/evening the surface low will slow down and eventually stall over the Virginia peninsula/ southern Chesapeake Bay area. The surface pressure could be as low as the mid-950s in millibars breaking monthly low-pressure records in that area. Meanwhile, the areas northwest of the surface low (the greater Washington DC and Baltimore metros) will be getting the worst of this storm with blinding snowfall and widespread 60-75+ mph wind gusts w/ 80-90+ mph gusts along the coast of the Bay. In fact, snowfall rates in the heaviest bands will likely be in the 4-6”+/hr range leading to visibilities as low as 50 feet (effectively zero visibility for the sake of argument) from the late afternoon hours through the night and into Monday morning. Temperatures will remain in the 20s throughout the duration of this event with upper teens possible in the higher elevations north and west and temperatures closer to 32F in far southern MD and along the bay where warmer air will be located near the surface low. Windchills during the duration of the event will stay in the single-digits for most w/ negative single-digits in the mountains and lower teens in southern MD and along the bay.

    Near-whiteout and conditions and severe wind gusts will still be ongoing by dawn Monday as the low-pressure system slowly pulls northeastwards. Heavy snow will continue through the late morning to midday hours before tapering off from west to east. When all is set and done with total liquid-equivalent precipitation of 4-7”+ across the region, snowfall totals of 4 to 6 FEET will likely be commonplace with snow drifts of as high as 30 feet possible. Areas in southern MD and near the Bay may end up with slightly less (roughly 2 to 4 feet) as the warmer air associated with the low-pressure center cuts down on totals in that area.

    This will be the worst blizzard, by far, to impact the region since weather records started in the later 1800s. It will essentially be a high-impact hurricane with snow instead of rain as the main precip-type. People who venture outside during this time may get disoriented and lost in the whiteout conditions and/or get seriously injured by flying debris. Emergency services may not be able to reach you for days should something happen to you outside. This is the DC and Baltimore urban corridor not Lake Tahoe or the Japanese Alps. We’re not equipped with the snow removal equipment that they have. So, if you absolutely must venture outside during the storm no caution that you use would be too extreme given the circumstances.

    Temperatures will only rebound to the lower 30s as skies start clearing by mid to late afternoon on Monday.

     

    Forecaster Wannabe: George BM

    • Like 6
    • Weenie 1
  5. 3 hours ago, snownut said:

    What time are the storms rolling through IAD?  Probably a bumpy flight.. I am scheduled to land at 5:45

     

    Yeap that's right around the time that the front should be moving through IAD give or take 15-30mins.

    What kind of plane are you flying in, btw? Boeing 757? 767?

  6. 13 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

    Excerpt from this morning's LWX disco and SPC's Day 1 outlook...incoming radar is pretty lit.

    The heaviest precipitation looks arrive later this afternoon and
    into this evening (3-8pm) before things quickly ending from west to
    east before midnight. Thunderstorm probabilities are low, but are
    not zero, for this front, given the increasing dewpoints and strong
    forcing. A marginal risk for severe weather has been issued from
    north-central MD and northern VA west into the MD/WV mountains.
    Forecast instability values are generally less than 500 J/kg with 0-
    6 km shear values over 50-60 kts. With that said, a narrow line of
    shallow convection may develop along and ahead of the front later
    this afternoon and evening. Lightning will be limited with wind as
    the main concern as this linear convective line pushes through.
    Gusts of 45-55 mph can be expected with this convective line of
    showers as it pushes from west to east across the region.
    Rainfall amounts 0.5 to 1 inch can be expected areawide outside
    of the Alleghenies where 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected.
    Flood Watches remain in effect for western Grant, western
    Mineral, and Garrett counties to encompass this heavier rain
    threat combined with already saturated soils and elevated from
    melted snowpack in this area.

    day1otlk_1200.gif

    That MRGL has since been expanded east across the region for the 13z update.

    • Like 2
  7. 12/06/2023: T (brief light graupel (~2:25pm))

    12/11/2023: 0.9" ( Fairly heavy wet snow overnight... heaviest between 2:45 and 3:35am)

    1/01/2024: T (Flurries w/ some graupel from late morning into the afternoon before changing to very light rain/drizzle)

    1/06/2024: T (Morning sleet w/ few flakes before changing into a cold soaking afternoon rain)

    1/14/2024: T (Moderate snow squall around 11am. Some ground whitening at the bottom of fences)

    1/15-16/2024: 4.5" (Light snow started in the 2am hour (15th) continued mostly uninterrupted as flurries/light snow rimmed flakes through the day. Picked up to moderate at times between 7-11pm. Some light snow/freezing drizzle continued into the wee hours of the 16th. Freezing drizzle continues as of this morning.)

    1/19/2024: 4.1" (Snow started in the 2am hour<-- (sound familiar?) and was moderate to maybe even modestly heavy at times (heaviest rates in the 5am hour (~1"/hr)). Flurries to light snow between 6am and 9am followed by light to occasionally moderate snow between 9am and 11am. Snow slowly tapered down to flurries through the early/mid afternoon before briefly mostly ceasing in the 3pm hour. Moderate snow squalls moved through during the 4pm hour.)

    2/13/2024: 0.6" (Following a roughly 5-7am lull in the rain, precip changed over to snow between 7:10am and 7:20am w/ moderate to moderate/heavy snow until it was nearing 9am followed by light snow until around 9:30am. Temp bottomed out at 34F.)

    2/17/2024: 1.5" (Snow started in the 12am hour (could've been a few raindrops mixed in). The snow became fairly heavy during the 1am hour (1-1.5"/hr rates), continued light/moderate during the 2am hour and mostly tapered off by 3am.

    2/24/2024: T (Flurries between 5pm and 6:15pm. Briefly up to flurries/very light snow intensity around 6pm w/ slightly bigger flakes.) 

    2023-2024 winter total as of Feb 25, 2024: 11.6"

    • Like 1
  8. Another relatively strange (for this area anyway) elevated storm event was what occurred on the evening of April 3, 2011. Radar returns were not too impressive as activity moved through from NW to SE from mid evening into the first few hours of April 4th. But there was photogenic lightning for several hours, especially across northern MD from Frederick, MD and between Baltimore and DC.

    • Like 1
  9. 1 minute ago, high risk said:

    Very bizarre.    The model soundings certainly don't suggest thunder, unless you lift a parcel from up around 700 mb, and that's rarely a path to thunder here.

    The 0z IAD sounding will be interesting to see.

    • Like 2
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