George BM

July the 4th be with you. Happy Independence Day! Watch out for the aliens.

The deep blue from earlier is gone. We're getting a little bit of smoke aloft.

Now while most of the time MLCAPE is more representative of the instability in the atmosphere for storms SBCAPE from the 00z IAD sounding yesterday evening was fairly high 1500-2000J/kg (I'm guessing from limited solar radiation through the afternoon following the earlier storms heating up and evaporating water from the surface leading to higher dewpoints near the surface?) compared to MLCAPE. Now I don't know too much about how storms interact with MLCAPE vs. SBCAPE. I'm wondering if the relative high SBCAPE was a big factor to the intensity of the post-dusk intensity of the storms... especially when combined with relatively fast flow aloft in the mid-levels of the atmosphere as seen below. I too would love to learn about that. Perhaps @high risk @csnavywx know more about storm behavior wrt ML and SB cape?

I had noticed early this evening (6-8pm) that the dewpoint temps had risen to the low/mid 70's yielding 1500+ J/kg SBCAPE. Okay, I thought, that little bit of convection in the mountains may intensify into heavy downpours w/ occasional lightning and gusty(non-severe) winds given the 40kt EBWD. But legitimately severe winds with a potential tornado? Nope I certainly didn't anticipate the convection getting THIS intense.

How much did you find in the gauge after getting home yesterday?

But not when I'm running.

Soon... NWS George BM Headquarters July 4 2021 250PM EDT Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10pm edt *Particularly Dangerous Situation* Hazards: Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 105mph expected A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail events w/ isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Discussion: Storms starting to develop over southewestern PA and southeastern OH will quickly organize into an intense MCS an accelerate southeastwards through the watch area. With extreme to excessive instability, record high Pwats and large DCAPE downbursts and microbursts within the line will be able to bring down high-end severe, hurricane-force wind gusts. Any supercells that manage to form ahead of the main line given the 35-45+kt effective bulk shear and 150-200m2/s2 will be capable of producing all hazards (tornadoes/wind/hail) with the potential for very large hail to perhaps giant hail. Stormtops: 700 Mean storm motion vector: 31055

@EastCoast NPZ Any luck with those storms currently in your area?

Yes. It's your turn.

I was mowing my yard earlier and I too heard my first annual cicada.

Happy 9 year anniversary to you all!

@mappy I've heard rumblings that today is a special day for you? I hope you've been enjoying the big day.

The short term section of the AFD issued by SEW... yeap. 000 FXUS66 KSEW 262245 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 345 PM PDT Sat Jun 26 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Record breaking heat is already underway as the strong ridge overhead intensifies over the next few days. Temperatures will peak tomorrow and Monday before meaningful onshore flow acts to cool down the region on Tuesday. Temperatures will not likely cool back down to normal for this time of year and will remain above average through next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Record breaking temperatures have been recorded across western Washington this afternoon, yet it is still early on in the heat event. With Sea- Tac recording 99 degrees, it becomes the hottest June day on record, but the next two days look to once again break those records and then likely breaking into all time record territory. Relief from the hot temperatures are certainly not likely overnight in terms of the overnight lows over the next two days either, as record high low temperatures in the 70s are expected. Coastal locations are also going to be hot, but likely peaking on Sunday as the thermal trough along the coast is going to go through the area on Monday and help initiate some cooling onshore flow. Monday will likely be the hottest day for the interior as that thermal trough sets up more over the I-5 corridor. It is quite unbelievable to have 108-110 in the forecast for Monday in and around SeaTac, but that is a testament to the strength of this ridge. Furthermore, it is exceedingly difficult to forecast the nuances for an event such as this one for which there is no good analog or comparison for in recent climatological recollection. The excessive heat warning remains in effect for western Washington. Those without access to proper cooling and hydration will remain most at risk for heat illness and related complications through the weekend and into early next week. Check with local municipalities and county authorities for information on cooling centers for those without air conditioning. Here are some additional tips for staying safe in the heat: -Avoid strenuous activity and limit time outdoors, especially in the peak heating of the day. Without overnight relief from the heat, a general time frame to avoid the outdoors is between 9am- 6pm. -Make sure to stay hydrated and to drink enough water before feeling thirsty. -Check on family, friends, neighbors, and those who do not have access to proper cooling.

A record that will likely stand for less than 24 hours.

Yeap. July 16, 2010 at 5:04am local time. It was a magnitude 3.6?... IIRC.

Probably nothing happens but the area of thunderstorms SE of Bermuda with a weak surface trough and a bit of an ULL shows that SSTs are slowly heating up for the season.

I love Gravelly Point as well when I spot.

One degree warmer this morning than yesterday, at 50 for IADs low.

49 KIAD

I'm seeing 70+ mph a few thousand feet off of the surface with that one on radarscope.

I certainly don't hate the storm cluster that the HRRR has been advertising moving through the region late this afternoon. Other 0z CAMs to a slightly lesser extent showed a similar thing. Much like what csnavywx hinted at above. I don't hate the large DCAPE and 30-40kt mid-level flow showing up on CAMs either (Wind potential). Fingers crossed.

Yes. I've noticed that some models have looked a bit more 'sheary' than usual for the time of year in the long range. Fingers, toes, arms, legs and anything you can cross crossed.

I'm actually lowkey watching Monday. Some CAMs are hinting that MLLRs may steepen during the day with moisture from Claudette in the lower levels leading to higher CAPE. At the same time shear looks to strengthen to modest/moderate levels. If storms can form along the surface trough near the mountains on Monday and/or organized storm activity from further west can propagate eastward into the region, the ingredients may be there for a few decent storms.

Currently 73/41 at IAD. G------- It's simply g------- What a g------- It seems that that G-word has been used too much for this board's software to handle. But I think you all know what I was trying to say. Actually, how about this other g-word that's been used slightly less. Glorious... Hey it wasn't cut out! Let's try this again. ... Currently... well now 73/40 at IAD. It's simply glorious.