I wonder if, other than the dry air intrusions into the MDR, the well above normal ssts in the 30-60N region of the Atlantic are partly to blame for robbing the deep tropics of lift.
Someone immediately northeast of Ashburn is wondering what they did to piss of Mother Nature.......... Or maybe they're enjoying the personalized downpour that's been parked over that spot for over 1 1/2 hours.
Based on everything you've said over the past few months I'm guessing that you are thinking it peaks moderate (-1 to -1.3C ONI) around November before weakening throughout the winter?
I just saw a very small meteorite immediately behind the storm in the clearing sky to the NNW/NW at 11:13pm here in Herndon. I doubt anyone else saw it though.