George BM

I'm guessing 70/30 wind probs based on the watch wording?

415 ACUS11 KWNS 191722 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191722 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-191915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1222 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025 AREAS AFFECTED...MID-ATLANTIC REGION CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 191722Z - 191915Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE OFF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. A WATCH IS LIKELY. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION GRADUALLY DEEPENING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY, THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL LIKELY MEAN BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS AS WELL AS A FEW SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT DEVELOP. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE, BUT WEAK WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (SAMPLE BY MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION) SHOULD LIMIT THAT THREAT. MODEST ENHANCEMENT TO THE 850 MB WINDS WILL PROMOTE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR THE THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. ..WENDT/HART.. 06/19/2025 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 37618051 38657993 40287794 40817698 40697497 40177473 37627670 36947781 36707996 37018057 37618051 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Finally MCD'd.

Oh okay...

IAD w/ a tropical hourly ob of 84F w/a 78F dewpoint.

High Pwats + decent CAPE = torrential lightning w/ those currently warned storms.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch out until 7pm from roughly US-15 east.

Unusually warm mist here. 75/75 currently at IAD. Some windows are fogged up.

That's right Aldie man. Use your power to get us another major volcanic eruption... preferably at least a high-end VEI 6/ low-end VEI 7. I'll be checking the news throughout the evening.

Midnight thunderstorm dumped over 1.5" of rain here. 2.05" for the weekend. 3.65" for June so far.

Really noticed the hazy smoke on the drive from Burtonsville, MD back to Herndon, VA this evening.

Yeah. That cell definitely has a little bit of a supercell appearance on radar.

The end of the 18z HRRR for Saturday afternoon DOES look a little interesting (yes fantasy range HRRR, I know... plus, verbatim, weak MLLRs and a saturated atmosphere in general limiting DCAPE). ETA: Others CAMs show hints of us being backdoored by a cool front by late Saturday.

Yeap. Line just developed from just north of the Capitol Beltway WSW into The Plains, VA along I-66.

17/8/4 ACE: 140

It's funny. Since the summer of 2023 I've had three months where I measured 7 or more inches of rain in a month (September 2023, August 2024 and May 2025)…. You of all posters beat my monthly rainfall totals for every one of those 3 months!

DCA: 100F IAD: 99F BWI: 101F RIC: 101F

17 years ago.

I didn't see this posted but the recent cool period had some cool stats (no pun intended).

Lol. I'm out of the summer touch at the moment. 84/62 is kicking my butt for some reason... probably due to the extended cool period. I'm screwed aren't I.

Third morning in a row that IAD gets down into the 40s. 47F for the low this AM.

IAD got down to 44F and 43F yesterday and today respectively.

Slightly older. One year until I enter the fourth decade on this sphere.

Welcome to Meteorological Summer and the brightest month of the year! Summer weather lovers rejoice. Cold weather lovers don't fret. Just three weeks until the days start getting shorter!

Baby Yoda: I mean it's no surprise when you see the kind of CAPE and shear that the 18z special sounding showed. Also from the latest meso discussion from SPC: "... A well-established cold pool and rear-inflow jet have accelerated the forward speed of the MCS to over 60kts. The extreme instability and moist airmass coupled with the large downdraft CAPE values will further increase the wind threat with corridors of 100+ mph wind gusts associated with embedded microbursts/macrobursts..." SnowingOverHere: Yeah. I better pack it up now. The tornado is probably embedded in that wall of rain that's protruding ahead of the main rain curtain. The greenage is unreal.