Cobalt

Great QPF mean for sure

Doesn't matter given that it's 9 + days out, but that axis of snow looks strikingly similar to the Jan 26 2011 PSU storm. Also the storm that got me into meteorology at the ripe age of 7 :p

I think the big takeaway from this range has been that there's pretty good agreement that we're getting a decent qpf system near or at our latitude. Haven't had something like that for nearly over a month now

Also in regards to true cold seeming so far out.. true cold is already on range within day 7. Baby steps...

EPS actually took a bit of a step back from 12z wrt the threat on the 26th, but it makes sense given that the 12z mean was incredibly anomalous, but it points out the amount of chances we're probably gonna get, and is already showing a signal for a threat around the 30th Banana high showing up nicely too Considering those are both means centered around day 14, it shows the kind of pattern we're in. Even if we miss out on the 26th threat, as others have said this seems like the type of pattern where if we get a threat into the medium range, we'll be tracking the storm after the storm as well.

Euro is actually pretty interesting for the Thursday event.. trending colder and has blue over a fair bit of the subforum at hr 135, albeit light.

PSU has mentioned the threat on the 26th for around 2-4 days, so yes it is getting closer in time. I only pointed out that the ensembles have quite the consensus this far out, especially when compared to the paltry signal that it had for the 22 non-threat just a few days ago. My point is, the threat has legs. What pair of legs it has is still tbd.

If there's any time to notice a day 10 signal.. that cluster is strikingly impressive. As PSU said, was 11 days to go yesterday, now 10. Just a few days for this look to not completely fall apart and we have a threat to track. Also the high pressure showing up on the ensembles is impressive too. Can't really ask for more this far out

Probably the only time any random 24 hour snow mean should be used outside of 10 days is to show how impressive a signal like this is.. like wow.

Although it is taking quite a while to eject out of the SW.. let's see if the confluence offsets that

I've heard some good things about Pivotalweather's paid subscription, but I haven't looked into it all too much. Turning 18 in June also yes, that was WeathermanB, but yeah I hope thoughts of him aren't brought to mind when I'm posting lol

It got the Dec 25 snow showers rather spot on, it's been sharp since it's upgrade in early December Pummeled!! Regardless that would be fun, we def need a pick-me-up, and scattered 1-3" amounts would certainly do the trick before we get into the main pattern

I agree. 12" on top of the 2.5" I've gotten so far this year would be around the most snow my area has seen in a La Nina in my lifetime (no 95-96 or 99-00 to throw in there of course), and we'd obviously have a chance to get some SECSY/HECSY action with the Modoki Mod Nino + low solar next year

@CAPE Thanks for the kind words. I know I'm not up to par with some of the expert posters here, but their collective knowledge has certainly helped with my understanding of meteorology these past few years. I checked back to when I first started posting in December 2017 and.. I honestly can't believe you guys managed to bare with me through all my weenieisms :p but I guess everyone has to start somewhere. Snow hardships certainly helped to quell my weenie ways that winter

I know that the accuracy tends to drop off significantly out there, and that's also why I prefaced my post with saying that outside of 3 weeks the weeklies really go out of their way to go towards typical ENSO patterns. Although with that being said, my takeaway from that week 4 h5 map was that it was surprisingly not doing what it did the past few runs at that range, and instead tried to get us back into a favorable progression despite it's biases. Not worth much this far out, but will certainly be super fascinating to follow in about a week or two. yeah basically what CAPE just said

Usually you'd expect the weeklies to do its best to revert back to a nina pattern and to pump the SE ridge, but even going a month out the blocking looks decently stout, SE ridge squashed too. Workable look especially when considering Weeklies bias 2 weeks out.

Snow squall warning time

I remember reading somewhere that in terms of tree growing ordinance, a yearly minimum low temp of 22 is similar to areas such as Houston and New Orleans. Anyone up for planting some palm trees?

In my short lifetime, Feb/March 2015 is also an epic period that completely slashed the narrative of that winter. 2 warning level events, a bunch of great WWA level events, and of course 3"+/hr rates for 30 minutes in that absurd Valentine's day snow squall. The first time 5th grade me had gotten back into following weather after being sad over March 6 2013 (surprisingly I have 0 recollection of 13/14, unfortunately), but yeah that was also an epic stretch.

Impressive precip signal for the PSU v2 storm, especially for 12 days out

Big cluster of lps that take it through the great lakes, still a cluster of weaker waves that take the lp near our latitude though, but it's certainly not the favored camp.

Perhaps 17-18 is more fitting, given how scorched North America was in February

Who are you and what did you do with Ji!???

I will say, the 0z EPS centered the snow mean basically identically to that 12z Euro run. Makes sense given that the window looks wayy more favorable for points North

Seems like the faster the storm ejects out of the SW, the less of a chance there is for the SE ridge to pump up heights ahead of the storm? At least that's what it seems like given that solution compared to the GFS cutting. Hoping blocking can pull through, but as that Eric Webb tweet I posted earlier, that seems to be fleeting a bit