Cobalt

March 2013 too

? I think you might be looking at 12z. Looks honestly sweet from what I'm seeing

The highest the GEFS gets temps wise for DC is 40 degrees. The highest the EPS gets for DC temp wise is 31 degrees

Sending positive vibes his way here too. He can have a persona on this board, but deep down he's just like all of us. Hope he gets some time to himself and doesn't feel pressured to be active here or on his FB. Also to correct myself I accidentally reacted with the wrong emoji to the message.. just saw and freaked out and corrected it, just in case anyone got the wrong impression and even if nobody saw it.

..That they live near Philadelphia? Or is this unrelated lol

Folks near where you are did super well, probably because the initial WAA actually did enough to keep snowpack and to prevent any big warmup by daybreak. Was just reading back through the old thread and the ULL pass was a thing of beauty, just that it was too far south. Also the screwjob zone ended up being NE of Baltimore through NYC, which isn't exactly similar to how this might pan out I don't think.

Going out a bit on a limb here, but the evolution seems rather similar to March 5 2013. It's been one of the higher rated analogs too, and that was one where the lp developed basically off of VA beach iirc and basically stalled. Obviously we absolutely hate that storm in retrospect (well at least most of us), but that airmass was pathetic. Saranac Lake was high 40s/low 50s as a high nearing in. Can't imagine that setup failing even just half a month prior.

Potentially not his first time on these forums

Wasn't the NAM one of the first models to sniff out that the mid Dec storm would be further NW, even at 84? Not saying that'll hold, but it can sniff stuff out pretty well

I think a lot of it depends on the ULL passing through and it's strength and intensity. PSU has mentioned the nuts ratios from a similar Miller B in Feb 9-10 2010, but I think that was cold smoke too with temps in the teens up there.

The control (and the mean to an extent) look strikingly similar to Feb 2006, even to the extent of the max snowfall area near NYC. How was that setup similar to this? It's been one of the top analogs for a little bit too.

It honestly sucks that we'll probably not get a chance to see the 12z Canadian surface maps because it looked strikingly similar, probably would've painted a similar picture wrt snowfall totals. Once the mesos get in range things will get real.

Its warm out in the sun today. Not sure how that boasts for our snow chances on Sunday.

Looks super nice. Slight cut back in mean for areas SW of DC but that's because the initial front end thump from the WAA is slightly weaker it seems. Although because of that the costal looks super nice and that aspect of the storm is south (which seems to be a big plus).

Canadian precip and snow panels completely frozen at hr 24, what does it not want us to see? lol

Surface panels out on pivotal and suggest yes. Complete pummeling.

It starts running at ~12:10-12:20 on WxBell I believe, so it'll be a little bit.

That looks like the long range RGEM? Dont remember the Canadian having 1hr panels like that

Really similar to the EPS for sure. 20 minutes to find out if the Euro is leading the charge.

FWIW the Canadian Ensembles def took a step to the Euro. More costal action. Not a full on cave but a good look. Still going at hr 105 but there's a 6" snow contour centered just west of DC. Awaiting further panels. edit: general 6-8" mean, super super close to the EPS, still snowing so might add on just a tiny bit to that

wrt PSU's suppression concerns. I've put the 18z EPS low clusters over where the 12z op's low pressure tracked (you can tell where the op's low is since it's L is slightly bigger), and it's certainly in the west (maybe not NW) camp compared to the mean. Still looks really really good, with room to adjust. Sorry if the image looking super blurry is a bad thing but that's the best I could do to display the two runs on top of each other. Google slides ftw in that department.

I went and looked for a comparison on QPF on ensembles with the Jan 2016 Blizzard at this range (96 hours, so Monday the 18th during that week), and found that the 12z Monday EPS was about 1.5" QPF for DCA... now that sounds super comparable to the 1.1" QPF the EPS drops on DC for this 18z run if I'm not mistaken. Not obviously saying that this is a super close look to that, that was a juiced up stj wave in a Nino with a great(er) airmass in place. We won't get that look in a Nina. However, it seems like this is the best look we could ask for at range in a Mod Nina, and so if you're looking for the super big dogs, you'll probably have to search for them in a different ENSO state.

Looks better compared to 12z, more expansive and a tiny bit stronger. It's damn cold in New York leading up to this, -10s to -20s as lows the day before. Temps def shouldnt be an issue for the front end thump.

Here's hr90, I can't really analyze much beyond since I lack the expertise, but 1mb weaker and a tad north compared to 12z Basically identical to the 12z EPS though which was our best look yet

I checked back there but couldn't find it. If it's not there it's whatever, but Im glad that others remember it too. Maybe it wasnt in it's own thing but was in a banter threat rather? Unsure.