MountainGeek

Closing in on 1" here - moderate SN 27/25

Since @Jebman said we're getting destroyed, I decided to go ahead and break out the emergency water rations: 

Grass/leaves covered, driveway caving, moderate SN 29/20

1 minute ago, Jebman said:

Mountain Geek - I think you live in the higher elevations. You're probably gonna exceed a foot.

Yeah on the BR, around 850ft or so.....I promise to take a Jebwalk in your honor. But I'm kind of bummed if this doesn't pan out for a larger chunk of the subforum.....Dec/Christmas storms are rare and a region-wide mauling would be something nice to end 2020 with.....

1 minute ago, Jebman said:

I dont mean to be an overexcited snow weenie here, but I just read that Prince William County in Virginia is under a Winter Storm Watch for MORE than 5 inches of snow!

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO-----HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If that verifies will you come teach us how to shovel snow? No one remembers how to shovel anymore.....

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS is colder for Monday. I might have to quit the board.

I mean at 42  I am getting pummeled. WTF is happening here. 

I can offer counseling and moral support if thundersnow terrifies you  .......it looks like we have a shot at some interesting dynamics out our way......

13 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Sometimes our advanced NWP technology can be downright depressing.  Decades ago we would have no idea that we were heading into an epic dumpster fire winter.

I have heard it opined on here that something has been out of whack since the historic super El Nino of 2015-16.  Maybe a historic super La Nina will knock us back into whack.

Of course --- NWP never verifies when it shows good for us, but modeled bad setups always verify 100%! 

IIRC, this time last year we had exactly that: no idea that we were heading into an epic dumpster fire winter. NWP and most outlooks were calling for a great winter with lots of potential.

Signs looked great going into last winter, and that turned into a disaster. So maybe things look terrible going into this winter, but there's still plenty of time and luck for the reality to turn out at least mediocre (which would surpass last year) or get us somewhat close to median. 

Going straight for the kill shot I see.......not even giving @WxWatcher007 a chance to have fun baiting the poor weenies for a couple of months before they succumb to the final plunge of despair. 

Here's a pretty cool ENSO - snowfall chart from Josh Timlin; this clearly illustrates many of the ongoing discussion points, especially in terms of setting general expectations for the upcoming winter:

https://www.joshtimlin.com/enso-charts-winter

Posting for historical reference when the winter ends up giving us "decent" median amounts -- let's go ahead and get rock bottom out of the way now! 

Although @Maestrobjwa might just get his wish of widespread pain and suffering along the entire east coast.  

Ben Noll put together a "blend" of global winter snowfall anomalies from the ECMWF+UKMET:

https://www.bennollweather.com/ecmwf

47 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

What does he mean that he holds snowfall anomaly "in disdain".

He thinks "climo" snowfall for the East coast is a poor representation of ground truth. One big storm can literally be the difference between a great "anomaly" year and a total dud. Lately we tend to be more boom/bust, so we could easily get 3 crap years, then one big year. So maybe an area averages out to 30" a year, but the reality they should be expecting is 10", 5", 20", 15", 70" vs complaining when they don't get 30" every year. 

PSU has hammered this point as well - a 15" annual average leads to the unrealistic expectation that we need to get 15" or better to be a "good" year. Median would be a better approach than the mean (which is skewed by the occasional HECS or big winter). 

I think the persistent AK vortex and associated record cold is another interesting indicator of the overall pattern and likely results. Based on typical wavelengths/troughs/ridges, there seems to be a significant association between that and a mild/warm eastern US. I think the most recent year we had a similar persistent record AK cold was 2012-2013. That year didn't go so well for us either.....although NW did get pasted with mashed potatoes in March. 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

But flukes can happen.  You should be asking how “could” it. I noticed the runs that had snow yesterday were creating a very odd anomalous setup in which the NAO became so positive that the PV expands down into the 50/50 space enough to create some suppression and there is just enough ridging across southern Canada that a discreet wave cuts across under. 

Perhaps we've been missing a key tellie - when epic failure reaches the ultimate heights and we achieve the fabled +++++++NAO, the sheer weight of the suckage collapses in on itself and becomes a means for us to get snow.  

Just now, Ji said:

why would the SS energy lag back 6-12 hours? thats an eternity? 

crankyweatherguy‏ @crankywxguy 34m34 minutes ago

Lead system hasn't moved much if at all. Our incoming storm is starting to slow in response. The kicker won't. Eye on the lead system and how the storm system behaves in kind in its wake the next 24-30 hours. Refer to Videos for "why" that matters (1 of 2 capture related issues).

Just now, showmethesnow said:

The latest Euro is showing exactly what we want to see for this weekend. Notice the deep, deep drop we are now seeing in a very favorable locale for our region. If we were to see that SS energy/system lag back another 6-12 hours we might very well be talking game on.

 

 

Showme to the rescue -- I don't care if you have to fudge the dates and post old snowmaps...anything to pull folks back from full tilt....

I'm more concerned about precip than temps....let's get that initial band as heavy as possible!

NWS seems to have increased totals a bit with the most recent update:

For the weeenies and non-experts out there.......can you please refrain from posting definitive statements re model runs? If you have to ask whether you are one of the experienced posters, the answer is NO. 

We have plenty of experts who can handle the analysis and mixing in bad analysis just causes confusion. 

3 minutes ago, Mersky said:

I guess you missed my post the day I joined here that I am a retired meteorologist.  Doing this for 30+ years doesn’t hurt. As I said before this is not a very nice place to post. I will refrain from sharing my thoughts and just let Mr Hoffman cancel winter for the 50th time this month 

Instead of getting all butthurt, why not hear what people are telling you and just tone it down a bit on the "certainty" that is coming across in your posts as somewhat arrogant? I'm sure we'd all love to have your thoughts and input, and people will definitely give you the respect you deserve over time if you become a solid contributor.

I'm assuming that you aren't actually arrogant, you're just coming across that way at times because you're relatively new to the board and you may not realize how your writing style looks to others. No way you did this for 30+ years and didn't get your ego stomped good at least a few times by the fickle nature of the game. 

So, again -- we'd love to have your contributions, may I suggest taking an introspective look at how you might be coming across to others and give them a chance to get to know and respect your expertise over time. 

Best snow event of the decade! And a really nice treat to tide us over through the upcoming shutout period.

No complaints at all, especially when we were expecting a no-go until after Jan 20th anyway. 

@psuhoffman has been quiet (unless I missed it)......need to know how that inverted trough paid off for you in Jackpotville. Any takers for 6"?

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Parkton, Md

Thanks -- I'm seeing reports of 4" around her area, I want to make sure my WHITE RAIN forecast verifies!

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Nice !!! Absolute crushing past couple hours.  

Just measured 4.4" inches . 

Where's @mappy? Looks like the last hurrah is moving through. 

4" right on the nose.

All done out here, but it's gorgeous scenery. Love the snows where it sticks to everything and is able to hang on to the branches and even the sides of the trees. 

Just now, mappy said:

Almost 2". How much longer? 

 

Extrapolating the radar, you still have a decent bit to go -- I'm guessing you'll hit 4" of WHITE RAIN easily. 

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I don't think snow depth maps showed 2 to 5 inches out west

Yeah snow depth was nowhere near accurate out here, we're about 4" and snow depth was showing half that.