MountainGeek
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Posts posted by MountainGeek
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10 minutes ago, yoda said:
Yay flooding returns! And this will probably make 2018 the wettest year in DCA history... from the afternoon LWX AFD:
Good. We need the rain......we've been suffering from a terrible drought. The water table is low and it's been looking entirely possible that we never get rain again. Also we've been in moderate drought conditions for months. And I think we're not going to get any snow this winter because of atmospheric memory and the drought.
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If you need to distract yourself from the pain (or support last-ditch weenie hopes) -- a fun read (plus interesting to note the level of uncertainty even 2-3 days out before that one):
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14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Ban him. There's no place for this in our subforum.
If you guys decide not to ban, I vote for storm mode again.....we couldn't even make it a few hours....SMH
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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:
18z FV3 is a big swing and a miss, .1" of QPF makes it up to just south of Fredericksburg or so.
See it here: http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov
LWX hedging further north than that; keeping us on the northern edge. For a little perspective here -- normally we'd be thrilled at the prospect of getting 2-4" this early in the season, and that would still be a solid outcome even if we have to watch SE jackpot.
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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
The last 48 hours has been frustrating. If you wanted any improvements there were none on the whole. But if we just wanted to get it the 4th quarter close that happened. It's within striking distance from here. But I'll admit it's been frustrating even for me. Even tonight if it stays where it is I think we have a reasonable chance. But I think tomorrow is when I want to see subtle improvements or else I'll start to lose some faith.
You know if we were bullseye right now there'd be just as much worrying about north shift and all kinds of assertions about modeling not being a sure bet at this range, waiting for the rug to be pulled out sub-72 hrs, etc etc.
FWIW, LWX still keeping east of Blue Ridge in yellow and west of Blue Ridge orange -- yeah it includes some southern areas but based on AFD as well, clearly they aren't writing this off yet either.
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Locked storm mode thread = BEST EVER antidote to extraneous posting issues!!!
Randy is putting everyone on time out LOL.
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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Its a step down from 0z EPS but I thought that was a GREAT run. I was surprised it wasn't getting more play. I wouldn't have wanted the EPS any north of where it was last night. It's slightly south of perfect now but I don't mind it targeting VA.
Lets see how this works. We have had a few of these the last couple years. In a Nina. In mid winter. With a weaker stj. And at day 5/6 they were targeting NC/SC if my memory serves. And they all trended north. Not enough to save us but if this corrects the same as those did...and it's targeting just to our south this time...
Gun to my head this looks like a southern mid Atlantic storm. But if i had to put odds now it's only 60/40 miss south imo.
Also if timing of storm keeps getting pushed back then we haven't been getting much closer in time yet to the event in terms of model accuracy and verification. So still lot of room for adjustments in our favor.
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NWS gives us a yellow (slight) risk for Sat/Sat night.
Also to echo @BTRWx's Thanks Giving......any newbies here should definitely check out the latest from Cranky -- http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e120218.htm.
He does a great job of explaining all the complexity in the setup, and why models jump around so much at this range, as well as offering reasonable benchmarks for when to expect better clarity.
We're all here to have fun with the mid-long range stuff and tracking (by DEFINITION this game is VERY LOW ODDS)........and I've learned a TON from some of the very knowledgeable posters here....but if you find yourself getting sucked in too early yet again to the point where you're going to be depressed if we don't get shellacked this weekend.....maybe a "cranky pill" is just the ticket so you don't get reaped before winter even really gets started.
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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
Where has Jebman been? We need his optimistic snow on snow on snow sort of attitude.
I think he's in TX? Check the Nov 15 thread for plenty of Jebness....he's already promised us an epic winter.
On the positive side, we have a LOT going for us:
1) Southern stream
2) Decent shot at cold air
3) PSU fringed (but he needs to start worrying about it out loud in the next few days)
4) Weekend rule
5) We're towards the northern edge of the modeling
6) Snow curse has already been broken for most in Nov -- now we're primed and ready to rock.
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50 minutes ago, mappy said:
hahahaha i think that would be even worse.
234hr panel looks amazingly wet and moist and...
A pair of double-barrel bombing lows supported by a deep moisture fetch from the Gulf.....
Speaking of weather models -- what's the consensus on the FV3's biases if any are known so far? I've seen some mentions here and there but not sure if we have a general feel yet for what to watch out for in our area.
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FV3 looking like it might give the northern tier some flakes to look at tomorrow. Maybe an appetizer for next week's doubleheader?
Even some sleet or brief snow TV would help set the mood!
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1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:
Anybody else disgusted with the invention of gas fireplaces. I have been sitting in front of this one for 14 years and today I realized it is a fake fire. Maybe the Macallan 12 is screwing with my brain. But I really miss the real wood fire smell. Anyways.....
Definitely - my other big beef with gas fireplaces was that if we used ours a lot in our previous house, the gas bill would go up quite substantially. So then there were times we wouldn't use it or we'd limit it to brief periods because the cost was always lurking in the back of our mind.
We have a wood fireplace in our current house and absolutely LOVE it. Yeah, you chop the wood, but if you want a fire it's the real thing and there's no worry about surprises in the bill at the end of the month.
However, gas beats no fireplace hands down -- and several times our gas fireplace was the only thing we had keeping us warm during ice storms and power outages....it ain't all bad!
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3 hours ago, WVclimo said:
I just realized I am at 28% of my area's annual snowfall average on November 15. Awesome !
It's about time for us to rock it this year -- the last 2 years have been pretty painful in the snow dept.
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5 minutes ago, Jebman said:
Thanks! How much did YOU get in Berryville? Man if I was up there I'd be enjoying a nice leisurely jebwalk in CharlesTown. I never really got into the gambling but I REALLY LOVED the snow!
When you guys get smashed this hard by snow this early, you know what's gonna happen this winter! The entire Mid Atlantic will get totally annihilated by incredibly deep snows. It will be relentless and it will show no quarter, no mercy at all, until May 2019.
About the same, maybe an extra half inch or so of snow and a bit more crust. I'm not actually in Berryville, I'm in WV up on the mountain between Berryville and Purcellville...about 6 miles from Charles Town
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It's serious deep winter mode out there right now -- awesome for mid-Nov. Tried to do a Jebride on the ATV in the ZR, but could only go so long before I got completely soaked through and I wasn't quite ready to go full @Bob Chill nekkid celebration mode. Trees are very pretty but sagging badly and thinking we're going to have quite the mess once the winds start up.
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47 minutes ago, Jebman said:
Anyone know how much snow is on Rt 9? At CharlesTown West VA?
YOU BETCHA you have an epic winter incoming!
6" snow (mostly powder), topped with 0.5" or so crust of ZR, still coming down, trees really sagging and icing up. Not looking forward to winds kicking up here in a bit.
31 degrees
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29F, 6", ripping HUGE flakes (some of the biggest I've ever seen -- literally silver dollar size).
WV - between Berryville and Purcellville.
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2 minutes ago, mappy said:
I'm all in on the Ukie
Even if it ends up being mostly sleet, let's consider it laying down a thick glacier base to support all the future dendrites coming in prime climo.
No snowflake left behind!
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December Medium/Long Range Discussion
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
Lock it in....setting my bar at a 48" BECS for Christmas. Anything less and I'm planting cactus in my backyard like @EastCoast NPZ.
I do like seeing somewhat of a consistent hint of precip in that timeframe....and we may not be that far away from having something inside 10 days to track.