MountainGeek

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

We may be in storm mode at some point this week

What's storm mode? Falling iguana warning?

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ok. Let’s get ready for the 18z DH. Disaster hour.  

Are you offering a Stormtracker PBP to get us back on track?

18 minutes ago, mappy said:

this thread is very much emotional in many ways. everyone is on edge and snipping at each other. its really a chore to have to read it. 

You must be new here? 

1961-1969:

Both decades had 63 storms within the search criteria - 750 miles of ATL (arbitrary, but picked to try to filter storms that didn't significantly impact GOM or W ATL ). 

The 1960s seem to have a higher number of high-intensity storms in GOM, whereas 1950s have more in the W ATL/eastern seaboard. 

Of course, this could all be backwards and hurricane intensity is just another effect of other pattern drivers rather than cause.....

Wondering if ACE might obscure the distinctions of hurricane track/location. 12 CAT5's grazing Bermuda wouldn't have the same impact they would in the GOM. 

1951-1959:

@psuhoffman - have you ever looked into potential correlation between ACE (especially in GOM and eastern seaboard), # of CONUS landfalling hurricanes, and the following winters? Obviously there's a ton of factors all mixed in that create a given winter "state", but just curious if we have a very mild hurricane season, how much heat energy does NOT get dissipated in the summer/fall and then rolls into GOM/Western ATL SSTs, tending to feed SER and WAR. Overall ACE could be misleading as well, since I'd think a GOM hurricane would have a lot more effect than something hitting Bermuda and hooking back east. 

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Subsurface in Nino 4 is about 10F above normal.. 65 degrees, not 55 degrees. I've found that the subsurface is more important regards to actual N. Pacific pattern in 0-time (D+0). 

(You can also look at the pressure pattern that happened in Winter 87-88, in reverse, when the subsurface was total cold (<-5F) During El Nino (SouthUS-High Pressure)(as the best analog match).)

TRANSLATION for @Solution Man: Chuck believes that subsurface ENSO temps are more correlated to the real-time N. Pacific pattern vs surface temps (which tend to lag). So when subsurface is on fire (Jan 18), the real time response would be an El Nino NPAC result.  Hence the super-nino pattern in California.

2 minutes ago, ge0 said:

34, some flakes falling in Round Hill

Hang on a few more minutes -- it's ripping SN+ here.

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

RGEM is the weeniest model in history for the Winchester area. Literal digital feet of snow here that never come. 

NAM sez "RGEM hold my beer".....

14 minutes ago, anotherman said:

It was. The last line got me.

HAHAHAHAHAHA

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

......its just shit the blinds time.  

Start the thread -- you already have the title above. 

Mashed Potatoes or bust!

I see NAM has the snow hole over me, @psuhoffman, and @WinterWxLuvr....should be good to go!

Just now, clskinsfan said:

It is absolutely dumping half dollar sized flakes here. I must be getting ready to flip. 

Maybe -- still pounding same size flakes here as well. Closing in on 2" at 32F. 

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

7am

Now that's more like it..... @WinterWxLuvr you can stop pulling NW now. 

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Who’s us?

Not us. 

52/48 -- but the wind has REALLY picked up, gusting to 30-40mph now.

Will be interesting to see how fast the cold air actually manages to roll through. 

4 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I am under a Winter Storm Warning for a Stupid Ice Threat, too. Tons of rain and arctic winds, changing to ZR and IP later tonight.

Too bad it's not snow -- would be fun to "share" a storm with you being in TX. 

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ok I’m docs office. Good luck 

Dude -- literally the moment you step out.....

2 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

North trend for sure. GFS Backing off a bit on the cold

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

I don’t know. I think the H5 is further SE. looks like we are getting a better push up north. 

Little over 2" here still light snow but basically it's done. Nothing worse than a windy very cold day with frozen mud to look at. Going to look awesome tomorrow with the cold and wind.... so I'm calling it a win!

28/25

1" new snow on top of existing glacier ice pack; mod/light snow

Hoping we can get to 2-3" before coastal shuts us down....

31/31

Moderate snow; flakes back to small sized tho.

Areas where existing glacier was melting are now caving and everything becoming completely white again. 

32/30

Moderate snow now with decent flake size -- snowcover mostly held so snow on snow + Friday HH = win!

33/29

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Most of the area got 3-5” from that storm…places north or east of Baltimore more like 4-8. 

Yes -- I'm definitely not trying to deb on our chances..would love to see us do well on this one. The linked site had somewhat of a NC/VA focus (so I'm guessing they got nothing down there from that storm).... but it had decent graphics showing the various synoptic setups since apparently Miller is the word of the day...

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

All this talk about Miller A vs B. Isn’t there also a Miller C? Perhaps this fits that classification? 

For those who want to learn more about Miller setups (and yes, there are hybrids/variants): 

https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm

Miller A type snowstorm

This type of snowstorm has a low which originates in the Gulf; it intensifies and races up the east coast. EX: Superstorm 1993, Blizzard of 1996. These tend to be more widespread in area BUT can be less favorable for historic snows in New England. However, they can clobber portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
 

Miller B type snowstorm

This type snowstorm has a primary low over the Appalachians while a new, secondary, and more powerful low spins up along the Gulf Stream waters off the coast of NC. It intensifies and depending on its track can clobber areas of inland or coastal New England. These are less widespread in terms of area and usually miss the Mid-Atlantic. EX: Blizzard of 2005.