MountainGeek

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z EPS snowmaps took a large jump just east of i95.... like 2-3" compared to 00z

Ack........don't use "jump" and "east" so close together like that.....

EPS sure has a lot of classic Miller-B screw jobs in the mix....definitely want to see continued better trends. 

Just now, CAPE said:

A lot of these people should never look at an op run at range, esp consecutive cycles. I mean, 12z and 18z are so close and exactly what we(collectively) want to see at this juncture. 

Yeah I'd like to see the ensembles continue to improve for the threat window first...those previous storms where the ops lead the way were a little disconcerting.

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

When it going to snow again? 

Sunday, Tuesday, and then we get obliterated by a snowicane next weekend. At least for the next few minutes.....

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Euro is in.

For Friday or next Wed or Feb 30th? SOO much tracking ahead, I'm already getting exhausted.....

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

NAM is caving like a coal mine. Snow thumb incoming at 30. 

Looks like NAM is getting on board -- I will feel better when all the models are on board with giving us the finger

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. I think the snow option is gone. When your 850's are streaming in from the Yucatan you can kiss that goodbye. I would prefer sleet if at all possible. Regardless it looks like a pretty severe ice event. Temps here never get into the upper 20's until Friday at 0Z.

If snow isn't in the cards , then ice or sleet is fine.....anything to continue building the glacier we have going from the past 2 weeks. 

FWIW....GFS looks like a little more juice for DC and SE.....

We going to roll this thread into obs?

Also, I wonder what LWX thinks of this event, someone should post WWAs...

11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am never sweating the Euro again. It got schooled again with tonight and the Friday event by the American models. The NAM is a serious sleet bomb for Saturday. .5 QPF as sleet for just about all of us. I have no idea what that would work out to in depth?

I think sleet is often in the 3-1 range.....so call it 1.5" of sleet ftw!

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

is the guidance that divergent...or are we just giving too much weight to ONE MODEL.  Yea I know its "the king" but its prone to errors just like the others.  While better its scores are not so superior that it should be taken against all other evidence.  Right now it seems to be completely on its own with wave 1 which is only 24 hours away.  That is a big deal because we are now in range that the 0z meso guidance coming out should be given some significant weight and it all agrees with a more north wave 1 like the GFS/ICON/GGEM.  The euro is a little south with wave 2...but not THAT much, its the differences wave 1 that make it look so crazy off...and plus if we cannot trust its representation of wave 1 why can we trust what it is showing wave 2?  IMO its likely the euro is just having an issue here.  If we ignore it...the rest of guidance isn't really that far apart from each other imo.  

PSU -- do you remember what the Euro was showing for the Bob Chill storm in 2019? I seem to recall that it was way drier than reality even up to and during the early parts of the storm. Maybe it just isn't as hot with this type of event. 

14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

On the good news front, temps here are below forecasted and we’ve had almost complete cloud cover so no solar warming of the roads and ground. Or less I should say

Same here -- we were forecast to hit 45 and will only make it to 38, and it has been cloudy almost the entire time other than a couple of brief peeks of sun. 

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro is kind of on an island with a dry wave 1.  GFS is definitely on an island with a paltry wave 2.  

So what you're really saying is, expect a juiced wave 1 and amped wave 2? 

Just now, high risk said:

I'm really stunned to see the NAM so warm for Wednesday night / Thursday.    Hoping it's just its usual day 3 synoptic struggles, but it certainly doesn't make me feel good.

It did lead the way sniffing out the extent of the warm air intrusion for the Dec storm, so I don't like seeing it come in warmer than the globals....but weenie handbook sez it's just NAM being NAM at this range so nothing to worry about!

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Dumping out here now. This is awesome. 

Looks tasty -- we're dumping pretty good now, so I think maybe this lasts a bit longer if you're still getting the goods further west. 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

This outer band is firing up now. Looks like maybe another hour or so of decent snow for me. I am happy though. Gonna probably end up with around 4 inches. And the models really wanted to put my area in the screw zone yesterday. 

Yup -- a pretty good win for Winchester. I'm hoping to get one more good pasting out of that outer band, maybe make it to 5". Regardless, snow on snow and a beautiful Sunday morning out there. 

30, back to mod/heavy SN, about 3.5" so far....absolutely gorgeous out there

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I think the Blue Ridge is what saved us from flipping in all honesty. 

I'm on the Blue Ridge directly east of you, and yes -- never changed over to sleet or FZR here, it's been alternating between mod/heavy and light needles since around 9AM. Currently mod SN, around 8 inches storm total so far. 

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

You guys prepared to lose 17 inches of
European modeled digital snow tonight?


.

Does this mean you are staying up for the most important Euro run of the year?

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

It never does


.

Well it seems to have our Jan 9  MECS a touch slower with the Maine hammer a bit more east....a few dozen more adjustments and we're in bizness.....we have PLENTY of time....

Just now, Ji said:

The icon sucks right?


.

That depends --- does it show blue over you?

12 minutes ago, IceCAPS said:

Why is that? In simple terms, what makes this a reality most of the time? And I apologise for what I'm sure is a dumb question most here don't need to ask

Models are constantly being upgraded/improved for overall accuracy, which results in less accumulated error out in time. There have been major improvements in the 4-7 day range vs say 10 or 20 years ago. So in many cases the error isn't "off" as much as it used to be, which means less adjustment as we get closer to game time. That said, different patterns can be more or less likely to shift (the super-gurus here track the known biases of the models and can tell us generally whether the scenario is one that is likely to adjust one way or another). 

Edit -- and ninjaed by @CAPE.....with the specific pattern analysis....

made it to 10" here, still snowing pretty good...it's a sandwich of about 7" snow, 1" hard crust of frozen sleet/ice, and then 2" of snow on top.....this is going to make an AWESOME glacier for the next few days. Wonder if snowcover can hold through Christmas...... 

6.5", still moderate SN

11 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

For reference, the average December monthly snow for IAD, BWI, DCA is 3.5, 3.0, and 2.3. Not the kind of storm we originally hoped for, but a 12”+ event is not all that common for this time of the year in the MA. We are starting the year off pretty good. 

A huge chunk of this forum will beat their annual total from last year and we're not even into our prime snow climo period.....I call that a HUGE win regardless of what happens with the rest of this storm. Something GOOD to remember about 2020 at least.....

4" on the ground so far; ripping fatties, viz well under 1/4mi 27/26