Paleocene

So I am a newb, and throwing one out there for any mets who care to respond, but whats up with the feature off baja california that exists in GFS (weak 500mb trough) but is totally nonexistent in the GEM? I was noticing that in the GFS the heights are way higher up the pacific coast towards alaska. For all I know this feature is irrelevant but just trying to learn what to look for, I'm following the discussion on the TPV above...

Is this good? This looks good.

ok sorry for banter, I'll be quiet now.

Me waiting for the 12z GFS, refreshing pivotal and and TT free sites to try to beat the people who pay for subscriptions in posting blue pastings:

That storm is still my benchmark for "large snowfall inside beltway" - I moved here right before commutaggedon in 2011. Was in south central PA for ultrawinter of 09-10. The 2016 storm was great while it was happening, very ominous leadup, quickly accumulating snow, cold when it was falling, power outages, actual heavy plowing of local streets. But the next couple days were very drippy and above freezing, which took away from the experience just a little bit. Overall, 10/10, would want that to happen again. It was also fantastic to track because models were dead locked on 120+ hours out.

very close

3 days later on GFS

Yea, worried about this given the trend for all coastals lately for those of us along/east of 95. Please Santa, let this depiction of 850mb temps and wind direction when the storm is cranking be true. (yeah yeah op run 200+ hours I know, but this is a beautiful storm headed to the benchmark...) and to further, 2m temps are basically in the teens/low 20s across our region at this point lol. weeniest run in a while

Yeah a 240 hour snow map = who cares. Need a huge NESIS-5 pasting like that 4x per day for next 96 hours to believe.

For the lols

2m temps below freezing from i-95 and south from 18z wednesday thru to friday early hours. cold air in place

I've been riding the unexpectedly extremely good eagles to success with moneyline and spread bets. Good way to enjoy additional eagles wins, after many years (2017-2018 excluded) of watching them lose.

I've been using fanduel for some light NFL gambling. Easy to use, kind of spammy with offers to get you more deeply addicted though.

For illustrative purposes, check out this site. It lets you paint areas below a given elevation above mean sea level as blue. https://www.floodmap.net/?ct=US. it's not perfect but close enough for a zoomed out view. Here's our (inner) region if sea levels were 100 meters higher. Note how 95 in Maryland between DC and Baltimore basically traces that 100m contour. If you're below 100m, you're gonna have a soggy time tomorrow

I don't have the hi-res maps, but it seems like cold air should be in place somewhat before that low pops off the coast.

41/20 inside the beltway near downtown silver spring.

Yeah, let's wait for the EPS before we throw in the towel based on a day 10 euro op map.

lol, mappy's is trees in snow, mine is a summer sailboat edward hopper painting called "ground swell" . petition to make avatars larger so we can see them better!

it holds frozen through 13z in and around DC. not bad? with that kind of forecast, definitely a 2 hour delay + situation for MD counties.

I learned last year that in these marginal setups, these positive snow depth change maps almost never verify for MBY. But hey, we'll get on the board in some way maybe?

The day when I get accumulating ZR inside the beltway and you don't in Gaithersburg will be an interesting day.

Yes, for MBY, this one has "hey a bit of sleet on the grass, my trees look kind of icy! but the roads are wet, and those look like raindrops, and its 34 degrees... oh moco schools are cancelled? cool i guess" written all over it. But i'll hold out for a pleasant crunchy icey surprise