JoMo
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Everything posted by JoMo
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Unfortunate for our area. Been hoping for a change farther south but so far, not happening.
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Santa delivered a pretty wild 00z GFS and even the 00z Canadian had some hope as well.
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Merry Christmas to all. Now back to filling the pool up and lighting the BBQ.
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Interesting changes on all the ensembles as we head towards the end of the month with more high latitude blocking showing up and a more favorable Pacific. Been a really boring December.
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Nothing really exciting as far as winter weather goes for the area. Pretty horrible pattern for winter weather through mid-month it looks like. After around the 21st or so. The Aleutian ridge looks to move into more of a favorable -EPO position. That should result in a greater chance of colder air oozing SE down the northern Plains. So, things might get more interesting near Christmas into early Jan.
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There's a long way from now until next weekend though and lots could go horribly wrong. With that being said, there is a chance. It won't stick around long as it's going to warm up after, but it would be nice seeing it falling before Christmas.
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Models are still ugly though at least mid-Dec. My fav time of year for snow and cold and it's going to end up being unseasonably warm.
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The ensembles are pretty ugly for the foreseeable future. Horrible pattern.
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Happy Thanksgiving to all. The GFS has been teasing the long range but nothing set in stone yet as far as winter weather goes.
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Pretty much all the models have shifted to a solution favoring more of a northern stream system and cold frontal passage/rain for us around Thanksgiving.
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The models continue to change pretty significantly from run to run when it comes to the time period around Thanksgiving. The most surprising being how much the 00z Euro changed from the 12z Euro today. It all hinges on what happens with some energy coming out of the SW US and if/how it interacts with some energy moving in from the north/northwest. The models are having trouble deciding on what to do and that has a big impact on the weather expected from Thanksgiving into next weekend.
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Did you feel the Earthquake? And yeah, it's still very much in the air about next week, everything would have to line up pretty well for it to happen.
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The 12z Euro has a winter storm in the area for Thanksgiving and Black Friday and even into Saturday. The models continue to shift around during that time period and further changes in the solutions will probably occur. What a crazy solution though. 17.8" of snow in Joplin with 25" just off to the NE. 17.7" in Tulsa, and even 8.2" in NW AR. Very low chance any of this happens though.
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The Thanksgiving time period has switched around a lot on all the models from run to run. Theoretically, it's possible.
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Winter snowfall looking near normal for most months except Feb. https://www.bennollweather.com/ecmwf All kinds of cool maps from Ben Noll. https://github.com/Dreamsh0t/copernicus_imagery
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Time for the fantasy winter storms to start showing up on the GFS. Nice one at the end of the 00z GFS tonight.
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Nice, cold, rainy fall day today. Even colder air is on the way next week though. Springfield even mentioned this:
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Models trying to go with a colder look the first week of Nov. Maybe more troughing in the central/eastern US.
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New thread:
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It's that time of year again. Looks like another La Nina year coming up. Euro showing some interesting stuff when it comes to having a possible weaker polar vortex this winter, at least early on, we'll see.
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Yeah, it's pretty much guesswork anyway, especially when it comes to individual systems which can make or break a "good winter" as far as snowfall goes. Cold and dry is boring. A weaker polar vortex would increase the risk for arctic air intrusions, but that doesn't always mean they'd be directed on our side of the world.
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Warm stratosphere = weaker polar vortex = colder in our area.
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Meteorologist Doug Heady's son passed away at the age of 12 this morning after a 15 month battle with a rare sarcoma cancer. Doug's dad is also in hospice care. Sad times.
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Estimated 90-100 MPH winds reported in that storm in SE KS. Yikes.
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80-85 MPH thunderstorm winds around the Topeka/KC area, going to drop south later today.
