Newman

3k actually never gets KABE above freezing at 850s (though it's close), but does sneak to 33 at 925 down to the surface. At 1-2pm tomorrow, the 3k shows rain BUT some deep lift just below the DGZ and even stretching into the DGZ. The DGZ is pretty high up in the atmosphere, but as you can see in the skew-T the sounding is marginally above freezing. If you can get some deep lift and rates to increase within a backside band as the storm departs, you could potentially finish with some heavy snow and fat dendrites if the column cools isothermally back to freezing. Of course, all of this could be for nothing and if 1.) The mesos are correctly handling temperatures and 2.) The rates aren't heavy enough to cool the column then we'll definitely see the lower end of snow totals materialize. Just wanted to point out a way that you could potentially see higher end (3-4" totals) materialize along the I-78 corridor which is currently the 90 percentile from the NWS.

GFS at 18z remains colder than any of the mesos for the I-78 corridor and even ends as snow around 2pm tomorrow. It's probably not picking up on the warm punch, but given the soundings are all basically 33-degrees and isothermal, maybe the models are underestimating the cold tonight? Will just have to see what happens, NWS forecast looks great to me based on current guidance.

Not the trend you want to see up to storm onset. 925s and 850s are just too warm, which makes sense given the setup. Hopefully this trend halts and we see things shift SE tonight. But at that point, it's time to look at obs and radar watch. Shaping up to be a typical early season interior storm with maybe a surprise 1-2" thump on the southern boundary along I-78

Yeah 12z models coming in warmer for those who were on the line NW of 95 up to I-78. I still think Berks, Lehigh, Northampton can squeeze out 1-3 inches on the initial thump IF it starts as snow. However, if there's a pesky warm nose (i.e. that some of the warmer guidance shows) things could start as sleet which would cut down entirely on snow totals. It's not really a sleet type of storm, though I'm talking about the initial thump before the true warm surge happens as the low tracks to the S and SE of the area off the coast.

Really tricky forecast for Tuesday across Berks, Lehigh, Northampton counties per usual. Expecting the R/S line to make it to the 78 corridor, but never know. How much snow falls in these areas will depend on how quickly/heavy the initial WAA snows come in and how quickly (or not) the warm nose aloft lifts north. Southern parts of these counties won't do as well as the northern parts. I'd expect sleet to mix in more than expected, but we'll have to see what the CAMs show the next few cycles. Regardless, small shifts will make a big difference in these counties and it'll probably be a nowcast to see where the R/S line is on CC radar. 2-5" is a good call, 2 being the low end and 5 the 75th percentile or so. Reasonable worst case scenario is probably 6 or 7 inches

As has been discussed ad nauseam here, I don't believe there's anything to worry about regarding a colder and *potentially snowier* pattern setting up mid-December and beyond for the northeast. The SE ridge will be suppressed enough to allow the baroclinic boundary to slowly inch south and eastward towards the coast, the CPC map you shared is highlighting that (just compare weeks 3-4 to weeks 2-3). It won't happen in an instant, but the cold will try to bleed south into the northern Mid-Atlantic towards the second or third week of December which should offer chances of snow. The nuances in the flow are impossible to figure out at this point, hence *potentially snowy*. Fail mode is obviously if the -PNA overpowers any SE ridge suppression.

Yep I was wrong. The sheath was positive though which doesn't mean anything until we get into the flux rope which we've seen can instantly flip negative (or stay positive)

CME arrival appears to be running a bit behind the initial forecast of a 15-18UTC hit. Seeing indications of a 21-00UTC (4-7pm EST) hit instead, but I guess we'll see. And of course, we need a southward (negative) Bz for the storm to be geoeffective!

The red pillars were naked eye visible, couldn't believe it! Hoping tonight is even better, but we'll see.

Took this at 9:13 PM EST last night from Florida From my folk in Fleetwood around the same time:

Tallahassee FL tonight

Although the chances of a KU are inherently lower in a Niña with a less active subtropical jet, we've seen some big ones in Niña winters such as 1996 and, a few years ago, Feb 2021. My biggest concern for this winter is a relentless Pac Jet which is helping to push along this brief cold snap this week. We had a perfectly timed rossby wave break that dislodged a piece of the Polar Vortex southward into the Eastern US, amplified by a peaking +PNA ridge. But too much energy crashing into the west coast is keeping the flow too fast, so this deep trough is unable to deepen and turn negative as the ridge out west breaks down quickly. I feel like that will be a theme this winter... The Western ridge breaking down too soon. I hope I'm wrong though! I'm favoring a near-normal snowfall year for Philly which will feel well above average compared to recent years.

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Impacts in St. Johns/SE Canada from Melissa will largely depend on how far west it can get. The strongest winds will likely remain on the east side of the storm, so a miss east would keep any hurricane force gusts off the coast, though TS wind gusts would still be certain in areas

The dropsonde with the crazy winds came from the South/Southeast eyewall, the backside winds are going to be equally as intense

The center of the eye will actually go west of him

11am update still 185mph, 892mb

Yeah the jog north here right before landfall will get Josh head on in the eye

1935 Labor Day was the strongest ever Atlantic landfalling hurricane, by pressure, at 892mb. This will tie or surpass that.

There's the 10am update. WOW. 892mb and 185mph

Another thing to be reminded of... Much of Jamaica is well above sea level. For example, Mandeville (which could get raked by the eastern eyewall) has a population of 47,000 people or so and is at an elevation of 620 meters (2,000 feet). So I would absolutely expect higher gusts in those locations

NE Eyewall Sonde. 160(!) knot surface winds?

What looks like the coldest cloud tops we've seen yet wrapping around the southern CDO right now. Probably -95°C, maybe colder.

11:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 27Location: 16.6°N 78.5°WMoving: NNE at 2 mphMin pressure: 903 mbMax sustained: 175 mph

On Friday I listened to a briefing from the chief meteorologist for the Jamaican weather service and, at that time, the *center* of the NHC cone kept Melissa skirting around the western side of Jamaica. And in his briefing he stated "Right now, Jamaica should be protected as Melissa goes around the island". Like no sir, that's THE CENTER of the storm. Impacts are wayyyy outside the cone. I audibly gasped at his statement. I really really hope they are prepared for this.