Newman

Impacts in St. Johns/SE Canada from Melissa will largely depend on how far west it can get. The strongest winds will likely remain on the east side of the storm, so a miss east would keep any hurricane force gusts off the coast, though TS wind gusts would still be certain in areas

The dropsonde with the crazy winds came from the South/Southeast eyewall, the backside winds are going to be equally as intense

The center of the eye will actually go west of him

11am update still 185mph, 892mb

Yeah the jog north here right before landfall will get Josh head on in the eye

1935 Labor Day was the strongest ever Atlantic landfalling hurricane, by pressure, at 892mb. This will tie or surpass that.

There's the 10am update. WOW. 892mb and 185mph

Another thing to be reminded of... Much of Jamaica is well above sea level. For example, Mandeville (which could get raked by the eastern eyewall) has a population of 47,000 people or so and is at an elevation of 620 meters (2,000 feet). So I would absolutely expect higher gusts in those locations

NE Eyewall Sonde. 160(!) knot surface winds?

What looks like the coldest cloud tops we've seen yet wrapping around the southern CDO right now. Probably -95°C, maybe colder.

11:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 27Location: 16.6°N 78.5°WMoving: NNE at 2 mphMin pressure: 903 mbMax sustained: 175 mph

On Friday I listened to a briefing from the chief meteorologist for the Jamaican weather service and, at that time, the *center* of the NHC cone kept Melissa skirting around the western side of Jamaica. And in his briefing he stated "Right now, Jamaica should be protected as Melissa goes around the island". Like no sir, that's THE CENTER of the storm. Impacts are wayyyy outside the cone. I audibly gasped at his statement. I really really hope they are prepared for this.

Cat 3, 4, 5... Whatever the landfalling intensity is, I'm sure much of Jamaica does not have infrastructure built to withstand major hurricane winds. Really hoping a worst case scenario (i.e. right eye wall traverses through Kingston) doesn't happen.

12z Google DeepMind And 12z Google GenCast The *current* consensus is to slide it towards Western Jamaica before it turns north

I'd also want to emphasize that until Melissa starts to vertically stack and become better organized, there may continue to be disagreement in model guidance in the short-term because of their proposed placement of the final organized, stacked circulation.

Quite a shift east in the past day or so on the spaghetti hurricane guidance. The turn to the west is much shorter duration and Melissa gets pulled north and northeastward much quicker.

Here's the 12z EPS for reference. Right now, follow the ensembles. The clustering/highest probabilities keep it well off the coast. This is a complex setup and there will be lots of moving parts. The chance of a New England impact is still very low, but I do believe worth keeping an eye on. We've already seen this tropical season major shifts in guidance in the 7-10 day range vs what actually happened.

Just a reminder of what the typical upper level setup looks like for New England landfalling hurricanes. Obviously this is a broad brushed composite, but there are a lot of similarities to the currently forecast upper-level pattern from the EPS. New England hurricanes are rare for a reason - even if the overall larger pattern supports the possibility, the smaller details, exact placement of trough/ridges, etc. will have a role in impact (i.e. trough interaction) vs no impact (less trough interaction)

That 12z GFS run is crazy for Jersey and much of SE PA. Verbatim, 40-55mph wind gusts extend across the Lehigh Valley and SE PA starting around noon on Sunday and lasting until noon on Monday. The most intense period from Sunday evening through the overnight hours. There is an inversion that will limit how much the strong winds aloft mix down to the surface. However, even 925mb winds are 45-50kts so any heavier showers/storms won't have any issues mixing those down. 850mb winds are closer to 65-70kts, which I haven't seen any guidance suggest those mix down beyond the immediate coastline in isolated gusts. Rainfall wise, WPC showing a slight risk for flash flooding on Sunday for the I-95 corridor and Jersey. Current forecast is widespread 1.5-3 inches of rain with higher amounts along the coast possible. Lots of time for changes to the track of the system, which will shift where the heaviest rains and strongest winds occur.

If you haven't seen the ring camera footage of the storm, check it out.

The 12 year streak of no EF5 tornado is finally over after detailed forensic wind damage analysis of the June 20, 2025 Enderlin ND tornado: ...Enderlin Tornado #1 Upgraded to EF-5... The National Weather Service in Grand Forks conducted additional surveys and worked extensively with wind damage experts to further investigate the 20 June 2025 Enderlin, ND tornado #1. The estimated maximum wind speed of the Enderlin, ND tornado #1 is greater than 210 mph and occurred during the time of the train derailment south of Enderlin, ND. The analysis involved forensic damage wind speed estimates for tipping several fully-loaded grain hopper cars and lofting of tanker cars, including one empty tanker car that was tossed about 475.5 ft (145 m). The maximum wind speed also correlates to the maximum strength on the WSR-88D Storm-Relative Velocity data from KMVX. Additional high-end damage indicators that have been reanalyzed and adjusted to include damage to the trees near the Maple River east of Enderlin and damage to farmstead #2 on Hwy 46. Further analysis of the trees surrounding the Maple River show extensive tree damage throughout the entire river valley with only stubs of large branches or trunks remaining and debarking with a "sandpapering" effect prevalent. Trees with attached root ball displacements were noted, including one where the original location could not be determined. Wind damage experts analyses helped determine the damage at farmstead #2 to be complete destruction with the foundation considered to be swept clean, and debris swept downwind and scattered. However, issues surrounding the lack of proper anchoring will limit the overall rating in this area. Trees around the farmstead were also debarked, and saw root ball displacements. The National Weather Service in Grand Forks would like to thank Tim Marshall, Jim LaDue, Dr. Connell Miller, Dr. Greg Kopp, Dr. David Sills, and the entire Northern Tornadoes Project at Western University's Canadian Severe Storms Laboratory team for their assistance. Rating: EF-5 Estimated Peak Wind: Greater than 210 mph Path Length /statute/: 12.10 miles Path Width /maximum/: 1850 yards / 1.05 miles Fatalities: 3 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 06/20/2025 Start Time: 11:02 PM CDT Start Location: 3 S Enderlin / Ransom County / ND Start Lat/Lon: 46.5728 / -97.6031 End Date: 06/20/2025 End Time: 11:21 PM CDT End Location: 5 SSW Alice / Cass County / ND End Lat/Lon: 46.987 / -97.5803 Full review, including DI images: https://www.weather.gov/media/fgf/Enderlin.pdf

The CAG signal is definitely becoming more pronounced on some of the ensembles looking towards the 10-14 day period, which aligns with the expected MJO progression and climatology. No surprise that the CPC went >40% TC formation probability in this region the week of Oct 15-21.

I know this sub-forum is mostly made up of North Carolina folk, but living in Tallahassee it's the closest I've got. We're currently under a severe drought after the 3rd driest September on record at TLH. Only ~0.5" of rain fell in September, which came at the end of the month on one day from one thunderstorm. There isn't any drenching rainfall expected in the next week or so, though scattered rainfall chances at least increase with a bit more southerly flow this weekend and early next week. Heading into our "dry" season, it could be an early start to the wildfire season as well. We might need a tropical system to really make a dent in the drought here across the Florida Panhandle, only at 10-20% of our normal rainfall in the past 30 days.

What an incredible beast