Newman

GFS is so close now. Our southern energy that phases with our closed off NS energy races out ahead just too much and doesn't get scooped up, so all of that PVA is too far OTS. That's what made the 6z Euro so special, the timing was nearly ideal with the trough turning negative and scooping up that southern energy/PVA and directing it straight into the Jersey shore. Let's see what the other models do here tonight.

The storm almost becomes warm core secluded with intense CAA/N winds on the western side of the system. Plus when it becomes vertically stacked, it occludes and you lose that mid-level WAA. Such an intense system would have an intense thermal contrast and there'd be a CCB/fronto band on the western side that helps to cool the column as well.

I like where we're at. If we see things continue to trend worse over the next 2-3 days, well then yeah this might just go OTS. Let's just hold it here and I'm fairly confident we can back this NW with favorable ticks with the ridge out west and the TPV split. There is absolutely no reason to be cliff jumping, I mean a lot of y'all just got double digit snows yesterday. We just saw very favorable shifts on the GFS suite, Canadian suite, and ICON. Lean on the ensembles for the next 2-3 days.

GFS is exactly where you want it. CMC is just incredible. A 955mb bomb on the benchmark. Sure verbatim its a tad east for some, but look at the trends... this one isn't done correcting yet.

Just for fun before we turn to the 12z runs, end of the Euro had 16-18" of snow fall in 6 hours across Central Jersey. And the storm was just getting started.

I totally agree, verbatim we're looking at HECS outputs from the Euro. I'm not biting yet though, will wait until Thursday 0z for full confidence, and even then there will be shifts in directions that screw New England, or screw the Mid-Atlantic, or screw somebody. I do think a super tucked solution will favor Central PA more where they get a CCB and SE PA might dry slot. But then again, it depends on the exact passage of the 700 and 850mb lows. Nitpicking details though at this stage, we'll worry about dry slots once we reel this in synoptically with confidence

I scanned my KU book haha, here is Jan 1966. Notice how there was an elongated PV stretched under a decaying NAO block. The western side of it separated and then amplified under the block, while the eastern side acted as the 50/50. And then the storm cut off and vertically stacked. The difference between this and the 6z Euro? The Euro has the evolution just a bit further south and east

I don't know if Jan 2000 is the best analog verbatim, at least at the upper levels. That one had a southern stream shortwave that got captured by the polar jet and then swung northward up the east coast. https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/25-Jan-00-500MillibarMaps.html At the surface and as far as sensible impacts go, definitely similarities. But at the upper levels, the 6z Euro output is even more anomalous. January 1966 is actually a pretty dang close analog

Wow, just wow. The Euro suite last night and now this morning is a beaut. 24-36 hour storm for many. 970s mb bomb parked right off the Delmarva. CCB just cranks

Just from experience, it feels like an NYC and New England type of storm is brewing but can't rule out we get something crawl up the coast like the 18z Euro

Geez, like a light switch all of the models are showing this one now. No sleep for the weary!

10" total in Fleetwood. About 8.5" snow and then 1.5" sleet. Now time to see how low we go tomorrow and Tuesday night with clear skies and fresh snowpack. Season total is at 25.2"

Up to 9" total sneet Been hella busy down here with our Tornado watch and a few radar confirmed tornadoes

Per the fam, about 8.5" in Fleetwood but now mostly pingers with a few flakes mixing in

This is the warmest the 12z HRRR gets at KABE. If this is the case, you'll probably mix with sleet, not do a full change over. Under heavy rates you might flip back and forth between all snow, and a snow/sleet mix. So ratios will be more like 6:1 or 7:1 vs a pure sleet 3:1.

3.75" already in Fleetwood (per family). Rates have been ~1.25 in/hr or so

700mb fronto starting to really show itself with heavy radar echoes blossoming across northern MD and South Central PA, heading east. Heaviest snows of the days are about to begin for many in SE PA

Probably briefly stuck between heavier bands so poor snow growth with rimed flakes. It most certainly is not sleet.

11z mesoanalysis has the 700 0°C line down in southern VA right now. Problem is the warm nose looks like it's between 850 and 700mb and we don't have a map for those layers. Regardless, just based on early reports, I like the NWS nudging amounts up slightly for the LHV. I think ratios and rates will get y'all to your expected ranges and potentially above in some spots.

I would probably drop my totals for Berks from 10-14" to 8-12". At this point, it kinda is what it is. A flip to sleet is looking inevitable up to at least the I-78 corridor. I would not rule out 14" for Berks though if something like the HRDPS or FV3 come to fruition. I would also not rule out 6" if one of the aggressively warmer models works out. A blend puts you at 8-12. We're at the stage where much of the public has already made up their ideas of this storm based on forecasts they saw 1-2 days ago. We'll know what the final verdict is by tomorrow night. Basically, it's down to nowcasting.

Deep down I'm hoping y'all pull a November 2018 and the warm nose ends up less pronounced and things stay snow longer.

Long range HRRR finally getting a clue and sending the sleet line up to I-78, but quickly washes it out and sends it back south.

We just have to see how hot and heavy that initial thump comes in, especially for NW of 95. HRDPS is advertising 8-10"+ in 6 hours tomorrow morning. Just based on experience, I'd imagine some places could even grab 12" in that time

The NAM continues to be the most aggressive model with the warm nose punch. Not to mention it always has runs like this where it flip flops around. I'd give the NAM a few more runs until it gets within 48 hours to take it more seriously.