Scarlet Pimpernel

In the immortal words of the late, great Tom Lehrer, in his "Smut" song (@ravensrule might approve!): "Who needs a hobby, like tennis or philately? I've got a hobby...re-reading Lady Chatterley!"

Yeah, that's kind of how I feel. I'd prefer a better shot at an area-wide good amount than hoping things go JUST right so that one small area can score a foot. Not to say I'd be upset if this somehow turns into a general upper-level MECS event for all!!!

Sounds better than the weird looking evolution in the previous cycle or two. Maybe a bit more "stable" so to speak, rather than relying on some jacked-up unlikely scenario?

It took THAT for you to realize we're insane??

I checked the 00Z Euro out a short while ago after catching up in the medium range thread, just to see what people meant. Holy F**ing Shit, Batman!! That is like PD2 times 2 there! I am sure that's a wild extreme solution, but damn wouldn't it be nice to have something like that work out? Classic overrunning, almost non-stop, into a cold dome of high pressure. I wouldn't expect that level of a solution in reality, but hopefully it's a good sign for something good around that time frame. I believe the GFS and perhaps the CMC also hinted at that time period as well?

Yup, that was "Commutageddon"...Jan. 26, 2011. I believe that was the one we also called the "PSU Hoffman Storm" in this forum! There was some snow early in the morning, then a lull with drizzle. As the ULL came by later in the afternoon, we got heavy sleet (more like chunks of ice falling, it really hurt when it hit your face!) which fairly quickly turned to heavy, wet snow that pasted everything. I got 8" snow in about 5 hours. Power went out for a lot of people in that storm with downed power lines and tree limbs.

On par with the weenie rule about not wanting kickers!!

Yeah I don't get all the scoffing and "ho-hum" here. This is 10 days away for crying out loud, and there's a decent signal for a moderate (maybe better?) event. That's all we can ask for and expect at this point, so I think it's a pretty good spot to be in. This isn't some well-defined classic K-U event that shows up on all guidance a week or so out and never wavers. It's a much more volatile setup. FFS, didn't you already punt?

It's the AIAmWx model! Nearly 100% accurate every winter and actually doesn't require "AI" per se!!! The only slight modification is that Ji canceling winter for the "22nd time" is a bit underdone, he usually is at that point by Halloween! Oh, and also...we then get a "surprise" moderate or somewhat better storm at the very end of February or first part of March to kind of salvage things, but a lot of people go "meh, March snows suck because they're gone in 2 days anyhow!"

Holy s*it! Three words I thought could never be uttered given how bad the Cleveland Browns Clowns are!!!... Cleveland Browns Win!!

Exactly, I agree. Yeah, we all get a bit frustrated or disappointed when there's nothing much specific on the horizon in terms of snow events. Or when the models go all over the place, creating the inevitable mood swings. And even a bit of venting is OK. However, as you say, the constant bitching with page after page of the same people whining that "it's over!!!" gets really old and detracts from the actual discussion. Can people still be five-posted (as has been done in storm threads upon occasion)? Like if someone posts a bunch of whiny BS and nothing more several times succession in any of the discussion threads (medium range or for specific events), they get five-posted for awhile.

Uh-oh...Ravensrule bat signal just went up...better be careful! Oh, wait a minute!!!

You must have 1994 on your mind!! Shades of @Bob Chill's total glaciation with a foot of ice!!

Happy (or Merry!) New Year to all, a little early!!

Amen! Now it's just "accepted" somehow, for better or worse (worse most likely, but oh well!). It is December 29, and there are now 16 (!!!) pages in the January medium range thread already...and probably half of those are whining and complaining that some 200+ hour setup doesn't look HECS-like enough at one cycle when it was perfect 6 hours earlier. I swear, some people think or expect that we get wall-to-wall cold and/or snow for weeks on end (a'la 2013-14 which was quite an exception), when that's not how it works around here. You take the favorable periods that come and go, and hope something good and wintry works out. Just because we may at some point flip back to "meh" and somewhat warm for a time doesn't mean it's going to be a torch with nothing through early March. All cynicism aside, I am optimistic (as much as one can be in these parts) for January. I think we likely score at least one really solid event that will be Folks to Jaws worthy. Not necessarily a HECS (probably not), but a good area-wide high end warning level snow, bigger than we got last year or the previous winter.

"Everything you always wanted in a snowstorm, and LESS!"

Merry Christmas all! May you all have peace and happiness this Holiday season!!

These are obnoxiously ignorant and offensive posts, which show little to no understanding about the workings of NOAA, NWS, numerical models, or even science in general. They're doubly odious after what all Federal employees, including those within NOAA, have had to deal with in this past year. You should be ashamed of yourself, if you are capable of that, for posting this utter drivel, especially at this time of year.

We really need to see the RRFSOPQXYZ ensembles. I hear there are 26 members!!

I don't recall that exactly...but I do remember sometime around then we were "supposed" to get a sleet bomb and it wasn't much of anything. The last legit one I remember actually getting was the Valentine's Day 2007 storm, we just missed out on heavy snow and got like 3" sleet (areas to the east/southeast of DC got serious ice), which froze into a block of ice right afterward.

Uhhh...errrr...given the RR context, that may not have been the best choice of words!!! Or maybe my mind is...oh, nevermind! Now, back to our regularly scheduled sleet and ice bomb!

You still wake up in the dark, don't you, to that awful screaming of the lambs? Try some fava beans with a nice chianti!

I'll double your exactly and agree! This may be a little off-topic, but what you allude to about modes of thinking is the reason I roll my eyes when I hear people say how 2015-16 was totally sucky and a torch except for the one big storm in January. Well...that's a rather large "exception" ("Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play?")!! Not to mention, I believe that thinking is skewed by the ridiculous month-long torch in December, which averaged +8 to +10 for the month across the area. But take a look at January and February, at just DCA for example. We were 2-3 degrees colder than normal in January and about normal (very slightly below) in February. Yeah, the last week or so of that February got warm, but let's not pretend that the big January blizzard was the only chance we had and everything else was wall-to-wall torch. We did get a rather interesting event around Presidents' Day, ice/snow, that seems to slip under the radar in recalling that season. Did we have other chances in the 6 week period from early January to mid-late February? Maybe, I don't exactly recall...but I bet if we got just one more moderate advisory or warning-level event people wouldn't be saying it was a failure "except for one event". Heck, I still like the winter of 2006-07...after a warm December and first part of January, things flipped and we had an extremely cold February. Yeah, we missed out on big snow for that Valentine's Day (but 3" sleet and ice followed by very cold!), but we did have chances and I still like that season even though it was below normal in terms of actual snow. Or even 2014-15...sucky until Valentine's Day that year, and we had a concentrated 3-4 week period of intense winter! But people don't talk about how that winter was all crap "other than..."