Scarlet Pimpernel

Probably some meteorologically impossible, physics-defying, thermodynamics-defying solution! (But seriously, my guess is it will show something like 12Z, with a suppressed solution).

More like the "D" word...Dafuq is the Euro doing???

So yeah, silly to get much into details I know, but what do temps look like throughout this...thing?

Yeah highly unlikely to go down that exact way, though it's amusing to see! But...given how ridonculous (did I get that right?) the pattern is looking to be, who the f knows? If it were to actually happen, I almost wouldn't be totally surprised...or if something similar to what it's showing.

OK so honestly...did you or anyone even think the Euro would end up evolving like this after what it looked like a few frames earlier?!?! That's some bizarre sh*t! Entertaining for sure. Who said European theater wasn't fun?

I'll take what the Euro is smokin'...if anything because it's so damned crazy!

Stemwinder???

Yup, we're going to see many solutions over the next few days most likely. Right now, I'm kind of in agreement with the thinking that @psuhoffman mentioned above, that this will probably be more suppressed for the most part in the end. But even if we don't get in on the best, we still could quite possibly get something out of it. Just going to have to wait and watch patiently. One small thing I noticed, for whatever it's worth...the 2-m temperatures around that time have been showing up as colder. I know you have to take the GFS thermals with a grain of salt out in that range, but not too long ago it was getting us well up into the 40s even with that high moving in. Of course, the overall look has changed in that time too, to an extent.

Why, sir, I was the same person I am now!!!

I don't typically look at or pay much attention to those snow maps, but a couple of people the other day posted the Euro extended mean and extended control, and there was a mention that those had a fair bit more snow for this area compared to awhile back. So maybe it's "moved" that way somewhat?

LOL, I always found that term "BECS" amusing, like the elusive unicorn of huge snowstorms..."Biblical" East Coast Snowstorm, where Moses must part the 30 foot drifts of snow along the Beltway or something!

Haha, yeah, decided to go with a new screen name. I also considered it back when I first joined this site (when it was "Eastern US WX" at the time!), since I like the Leslie Howard version of The Scarlet Pimpernel! But I guess you can only change it like once every ridiculous number of days (30,000??), so basically you can only change it once and that's it, I guess unless one asks permission to change again. Not that I want to now, kinda like this one better than what I had before but I got so used to that I didn't bother for a long time until recently hahaha!

As long as it's not kick-canny!! But seriously, yeah, the level of consistency with that look even as it is now almost approaching the edge of the ops range is unreal. Let's hope it is real!!

This is true...but just looking at DCA they were actually a hair (ass hair, according to @stormtracker? ) colder than normal earlier this week. Like a degree or less I think. But yeah, a 60+ degree day yesterday and pushing 80 today along with lows that didn't even dip into the 40s will blow that to being above normal easily.

We've seen that happen, too, in the past. As one example, February 2015 here in the mid-Atlantic. From January up to about Valentine's Day, it was a pretty tame and blah winter. We missed out on some events that gave us rain and drizzle. Then an Arctic front with a blast of snow and cold went through on Feb. 14, and that ushered in a ~3 week period with an extremely cold rest of February and early March along with some decent moderate wintry events. No, it wasn't any kind of HECS-level thing but the pattern then was a lot different than this look (it wouldn't have been conducive to a major storm). Yet we still managed all that in a short turnaround time.

And, the weeklies have been pretty well dead-on consistent if I'm not mistaken, for the past many runs? The latter part of the ensemble runs (not just the EPS but the GEFS) have also been "leading into" what the Euro weeklies show if I interpret that correctly. To me, that's a very good sign, no "can kicking" or anything like that. I even think the wild looks we're seeing for the first week of February were hinted at, as the sort of transition period. Hopefully this will all hold for February into the early part of March. At some point in the next week we should see some of the ops runs do "interesting" things...they already are, in fact.

First, JB with the Sistine Chapel, and now this?!?!?!

I wasn't here for that event (hadn't moved to the area just yet), but my understanding is that yeah, it looked like no more than flurries. Then suddenly the Jan. 24, 2000 18Z Eta (mesoscale model at the time) on the afternoon right before it hit showed the low a lot farther north with warning-level snow. And it only increased thereafter. I heard that on the late evening local news/weather, they were scurrying to mention newly-issued winter storm warnings for later that night and the next day. Gotta love reverse busts!

Here's a more detailed look at this H5 pattern...

Wait, it's the Republicans' fault???? (Just kidding, for anyone who thinks this is possibly too "political" sounding!)

Barry Bonds called...he wants his 'roids back!

I lived in the Capitol Hill neighborhood in DC for several years in the early 2000s before moving to southern MoCo. I can't say offhand whether the temperatures were much different there compared to DCA; I'd guess not all that much. But in the time I was in that location I know the snow amounts I received were consistently higher than what came out of DCA. Anytime I saw reports from a snow event, those in the District proper likewise tended to be higher; that still is the case (e.g., during the 2016 blizzard I recall seeing several 20"+ reports from the District even as DCA recorded "only" 17.8") I actually found the snow reports from the National Arboretum to be a reasonable compromise amount for DC proper.

Wow, and that's Feb. 3 while we're still apparently in the "transition" phase or whatever. Does that big omega block eventually push into the NAO space?? I thought that's what previous extended range indications were.

Right. I live on the northwest side of DC in suburban MD, but we've had some good March events over the years. Not "double digits" for the month outside of 2014, but solid events in the early to middle part of the month, and even some halfway decent ones later in March (twice it snowed on my birthday, March 25, like 3-4"!). Just off the top of my head, the good events I recall occurring in this area in March were 2009 (I actually lived in DC proper at that time), 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2022. That's a lot of March events, in my opinion, even if not huge. At least a couple of those followed on the heels of a solid and wintry February.