Scarlet Pimpernel

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS still showing don’t give up hope during the second week of March.  To make myself aa clear as I can there is 0% chances of an event through next Thursday.   After that, we have a slight chance for about a week.  That is all that I think that is advertised.  Luck would help.  You have to understand that probability maps are a snapshot. There is no cumulative effect.  For example, whether I flip a coin once or a thousand times, there is a 50% of getting heads or tails each time.  The difference with the snow probability maps is that every six hours you get a little closer to the target period with updated weather data input.  So it will be interesting to see if the probs increase over the next week for the second week of March and whether other models also show it. I would only note that I am not remembering a period recently where GEFS has shown some signals, albeit weak for the same time period two days in a row.

 

 

Let's just take p02 or p19 and be done with it!

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You have more chance of waking up in Oz than with snow on the ground. 

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Was thinking something along those lines...lol That we may have to follow the yellow brine road to find some snow!

Well, it actually did snow in Oz, you'll recall...when Dorothy et al. were on their way to the Emerald City, Glinda the good witch made it snow to wake them up.  Enough to cover the grass and stick to the pavement (yellow brick road) even, I believe!!  I don't know what the sun angle was, however. 

(ETA:  The Emerald City itself got fringed by that event!!!)

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

And to be fair your posts aren’t 99% crap and you don’t go from sub to sub picking fights so you would likely get way more leeway. 

Thanks, appreciate that...

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Exactly so maybe you should talk about it in that region. What’s next...talk about a Boxing Day repeat?...another March 2001?  Oh maybe a December 2000 too?  I wouldn’t bring up Feb 5 2010 in the NYC sub. 

Well, to be fair, I myself also look back fondly at April 1982 and that winter in general (I'm assuming you mean Apr. 5-6 that year).  But that's from the perspective of northeast Ohio, not NYC, and nowhere near this place.  KCLE got ~12".  That was a great storm in the midwest, and I honestly at the time had no idea what it might have done outside there.  Plus, it's the storm that put KCLE over the top for snowiest winter on record there at the time (it's since been broken), by a good margin thanks to that event.

This winter has been so bad...("How bad was it??" yells the crowd!)...it's been so bad that we even get a leap day this February just to add one more day this month that it won't snow!!

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

my perfect track rainstorm is there on the GFS again lol

Start a thread post haste!!  Maybe even a radio show! 

(Yeah, I used the term "post haste"!!)

17 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its here-

That was the winter Boston had over 100", much of it coming in Feb.

That was indeed a classic rant post...bravo @Jebman!  I remember that post well from the time.  If ever AmWx could give some kind of literary award for top posts, this would win hands down!

Oh, and yeah, that was the year we got screwed for much of the winter.  Then things turned around and lined up right for us over the next 3-4 weeks, and we did really well in that time.

16 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If we’re not having fun one way or another during the winter, we’re doing it wrong.

Very true!  I had actually forgotten @Jebman posted that in Panic Room that year (though I did read it at the time)!  Back in the early days of the Room, when you didn't have all the fine amenities, waiters to serve you drinks, dance floors, etc.!!

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think from here on...no winter outlooks until December. Just don't do it, lol Don't even bother (unless it's a mod nino or something)

Wouldn't be prudent...at this juncture!

3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

What do you mean NAM range? We haven't even gotten anything into the range where the op runs of the Globals become somewhat useful.

Now to be fair, I think we may have gotten into CFS range a time or two back in late December or early January.  But otherwise, yeah, not so much!! 

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm going all-in balls deep on this threat. This will be the one that fools people into thinking it cant snow last week of Feb and cant snow with a +NAO and is going to shock the system of many. Be ready.

Did @Jebman steal your account info? 

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Man that one still kinda hurts...lol That turned out to be the only shot at a foot we've had since 2016 (barring a March miracle this year)

You think that one hurts?  You should have been here (maybe you were?) for the infamous "Storm Which Shall Not Be Named" in December 2010 (ahem...Boxing Day, oops, I said it!).  I think that's what started @Bob Chill  and many others harming bunnies and other cute furry animals of varying types when things go wrong! 

3 hours ago, ravensrule said:

MD moved up to number 7 like i thought. Fear the Turtle. 

Close to a lock for a solid #2 seed, I'd imagine?  (Assuming things remain constant to selection Sunday).

@Bob Chill, today was an awesome day for a ride (which you probably knew already)!!  Yesterday would have been fine too, but I was unfortunately busy and didn't get out.  However, I wasn't going to let anything deter me this afternoon.  Even to get out there for a relatively short time, it was great to go for a spin.  I hope you were able to take advantage of this weather either yesterday or today yourself and hit some trails!

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Don't worry, it's not happening.  I'm a SE weenie, but I'm not delusional.

You've come to the right place, then!! 

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If that's your opinion, take it up with the moderators. And there's also an ignore button too. (And I find it interesting that you singled just me out for this...)

Don't let it bother you too much, though at the same time I might suspect Rvarookie might just be trolling for fun.  Seems to happen a lot in here lately, hahaha!  There have been a lot of crap posts or worthless ones for what's supposed to be a "discussion" thread here, but it is what it is.  Yours are far from the "worst", and I'll admit to making my own snarky non-relevant comments in here too (rather than in Banter).  Now, if we ever get a storm mode, different story!!  (and at this point, fat chance we'll have reason for "storm mode" any time soon, haha!!)

14 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Most on here realize the futility we have gone through this year. We get it. So why state the obvious (being failure) on something posted that actually has somewhat of a positive spin? All this negativity gets old, hell it has been old for several years now. Just saying.

Meh...Get Off My (snow-free) Lawn!!  

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd much rather have something to track 10 days out, than to have to wait 10 days just to have a chance at tracking something ANOTHER 10 days out from there. Mercy...I'd much rather something come from THIS Day 8-11. (And as I stated above, my own historical bias for not believing in end of February snow)

Well, I can totally get that, when looking at what appear to be "dead zones" of snow events in the climatological record.  It's an interesting phenomenon, not sure how much of that is "luck".

Then again, we supposedly had no real events the middle 2 weeks of January either, historically speaking.  Then 2016 happened...

(ETA:  I seem to recall some end of February events, even in the metro DC/Balt regions.  Feb. 25, 2007...a 5-6" pasting that originally was supposed to be ice and rain.  And in 2003, around that same date (25th, there about??), we got a decent event, a couple weeks after PD-II).

53 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Seeing as I lost the house on my last gambling excursion that is about all I have. Now if I can just figure out where I left the game. Oh... that's right. I sold it for my housing. Who knew cardboard boxes could be so expensive.

Heh!  I was just about to say, maybe we could throw in some of your chips from Vegas along with the Monopoly money...if you walked out of there with any remaining, that is!!! 

Ahhh, Monty Python's "Deja Vu" episode comes to the rescue!!!  Perhaps record-breaking deja vu!!

24 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Dinner tonight. Had left over pulled pork from last week. So tacos with roasted corn salsa. 

Oh man, that looks *tasty*!!!  (Any cookies for dessert??)

45 minutes ago, wdavis5784 said:

Something we are great at in the MA...

Well, we haven't failed at failing yet, as far as I know!! 

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

It just never ends. It goes on and on and on and on and on.....

One could say we're experiencing record breaking broken records?? 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Go back into hibernation.  Trust me. 

Ji's groundhog saw the MJO phase plots...we get 6 more weeks in phase 6!

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Looking across all guidance the only shot we have over the next 10-12 days would be a quick trailer after a front. Air is moving fast so the "cold windows" are literally less than 48 hours long. Miss that by 15 minutes and we get another free car wash

Yeah, been saving a lot of money this winter with free car washes!  And very little salt on the roads this year, too, so my dark blue Honda Civic actually still looks...blue!

Awesome photos, @psuhoffman!  Really impressive...almost wish I could have been there with my camera!!