Scarlet Pimpernel

Yeah that's kind of what I was thinking with my comments above about the broad "bowl" type look. I would think that at least keeps a fair bit of cold air on this side of the hemisphere, which keeps a solid amount of cold air ever lurking in Canada. If we don't have some jacked up ridge form that floods all the cold air out, we can perhaps score what you're mentioning...a CAD overrunning event, and even if it flips to rain, there is still cold air nearby that can come right back in behind the system. At least that's the hope!

Paging Beethoven (and @stormtracker, @Maestrobjwa...fellow classical music afficionados!)...

Can you zoom that out to the global scale, please??

Well, I sure hope that's the case. The long post I put above the one with the "Lord, it's a miracle!" gif was just some stuff I observed from cursory looks at the 500-mb flow. I'd much prefer (and assume others as well) a broad bowl than a pumped up ridge that not only would torch us but would blow away cold air in Canada which would take a longer time to regenerate. BTW...you don't care for "Shawshank Redemption" (the gif I put up there), with the weenie tag emoji??

I can't recall exactly what the overall 2013-14 and 2014-15 500-mb look was like, but yeah. I somehow seem to remember we really lucked out (particularly in 2013-14) with a more persistent +PNA, we had little or no help on the Atlantic side, and it was a Nina as well. But it worked out! Another thing, taking these plots at face value for now even though it's waaay out there in time: I've noticed the model cycles that look better, less torchy, or even amazing like last night do not amplify things such that we end up with a ridiculous 588+ dm ridge over the East Coast. Yeah, I know that's obvious, but my point mainly is that while the PNA looks negative, there is a strong ridge over western AK and there's more of a "bowl" like broad trough through Canada and the northern US, with occasional shortwaves pressing down to potentially deliver cold air. That's not something you see in a wall-to-wall torch pattern, and not something that floods Canada with warm air. I'm kind of encouraged by that look! In a way it almost reminds me as well of February 2007, there was a wide, broad trough that covered much of the CONUS, or something like that, which enabled delivery of very cold air from Canada. If one ignores the color shading for the anomalies on the map above, and just look at the overall height contours, you can maybe see what I mean here (there's also a hint of confluence in the northeast).

Sorry about that, it is a painful memory! I still recall watching the game and literally started cheering (as were a bunch of other people) because the kick actually looked good, then I saw the refs indicate otherwise. Only upon replay was it clear it was JUST a bit outside. Oh well. Yes, hopeful for Saturday night! I'm impressed at how bullish LWX is going but makes sense given current indications and trends.

Let's just not pull an FSU with a wide-right miss! I still remember being there as a grad student for the first "wide right" vs. Miami in 1991 (FSU was ranked #1 and Miami #2 at that time)...ugh!!

That would be God-awful to see in JULY (let alone December)!! We'd be talking triple digits if it were summer!

It'll have to be SHARKnadoes...so that @stormtracker can break out JAWS for us!

It's in la-la land sure, but yeah looks like a big (and quite cold) sleet/ice event mainly in the I-95 corridor around DC/Balt, with a snowstorm to the west and north! Mid-20s and ice? That would qualify as a @Bob Chill "glaciation" scenario! I say bring it!

Shhhh! People are going to start thinking your name is Richard!! (saying this all in jest, as you know!) That reminds me...Many years ago I remember this one episode of the old Letterman show, where for his "Top 10 list" he found ten people with the name "Richard Head"...and had them parade out on stage showing their driver's licenses to prove that was their name!!!

Ravensrule has taught you well!

Very true! Coming up in a couple of weeks I believe!!!

Oh and off-topic...but @stormtracker, you changed your Beethoven icon look I see??

Hell, Steph Curry has a much better chance to make that shot than the extrapolated HRRR has of being correct!!! Looks like you beat me to that thought!!!

That Valentine's Day 2015 mini-event is STILL one of my favorites! About 2" total fell within a couple of hours as the Arctic front blew through the area in the early evening, attended by strong winds and rapidly falling temperatures. And yeah, I remember @Bob Chill talking about watching the event occur while grilling in his garage!! That event ushered in an amazing period of winter weather that went through early March! Here's a shot soon after the snow ended...

Fringed!

That means it's more accurate!! Trained off decades of Ji posts to respond appropriately. The regular Ji couldn't do as well!!! So would that make it Chat-Ji-PT???? Do we have an AI version of @WxWatcher007, the Reaper? You can get an AI Reaping now!

It's the Ji version of a Modiki Nino/-NAO/+PNA/MJO phase 8!!!

OMG!!!! And in about 3 weeks, the sun angle will start working against us!! Dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!!!

It's the 50th anniversary of "Jaws" this year...hey, that's gotta be worth something!

Tough loss for the Blue Jays. Though I didn't really have a dog in the fight (being a lowly Cleveland Guardians fan haha!), I was rooting for Toronto to win it. Just because they were huge underdogs and I'm kind of tired of big market teams like LA always being up there every season. Was time for a totally different winner this year. I was almost hoping for a Seattle-Milwaukee Series, actually! As much as the Dodgers' talent came through (Ohtani is insanely talented, and Yamamoto is nearly as incredible), the Jays really blew it. Very frustrating. I mean, come on...leadoff double in the bottom of the 8th with a then 4-3 lead, and they cannot push across one insurance run (would have rendered what was LA's tying home run in the 9th as moot)? Then in the bottom of the 9th, bases loaded and one out in a 4-4 tie, and they can't score the walk-off winning run somehow? And even in the 11th when down 5-4, they had a definite good chance to at least tie it, but blew it with a double-play to end the game and the Series. I suppose, being a native Clevelander, it's only fitting that the former Guardian (Shane Bieber) coughed up what was the game-winning HR to the Dodgers!! He must have forgotten that he's not playing for Cleveland now, LOL!!! Oh and despite being disappointed in the outcome, what a Series! A 9-run spot for the Jays in Game 1 was the 2nd largest inning in Series history, and TWO extra inning games (including the 18 inning drama). This was the 4th extra-inning Game 7 in the "modern era" going back to Jack Morris (for the Twins) and his 10-inning pitching gem...and, as expected, Cleveland lost TWO of those (1997 in 11 innings vs. the Marlins, 2016 in 10 innings vs. the Cubs).

Well, it has now been 10 winters since our last KU-HECS type storm, so there ya go! I don't know what the "average" time is between such events, but I think historically it's been less than that(?).