Scarlet Pimpernel

I know it's pretty slow here given the potential event this weekend...but that first week of March is still looking kinda intriguing!!!

TP and milk!!!

So, not quite Groucho level but getting close???

In reality, I think we reach some kind of consensus in one way or another, there won't be some "cave" to either the extreme GFS result or getting nada or snow TV white rain. The trends this afternoon should certainly lend more confidence to a warning-level snow event I would think, whether the inverted trough is mostly responsible or more coastal action, or some combination. There is no way in hell we get the GFS amounts of course, but taking all guidance into account (including the latest AI models), you'd have to say an overall 4-6" or so event is now very much on the table. Obviously that could change a lot either way with later runs, but I like the semi-convergence to SOMETHING decent.

It ain't over or decided yet of course (but I know you know that!)...however, I have to feel a bit more confident in a solid warning-level snowfall at this point. Obviously the crazy GFS amounts are just that...crazy...but I like seeing the Euro edge in that direction (as well as the Euro/GFS AI versions). Now, can we get the Hessian and Canuck models to concur, LOL!!!

This, absolutely! I of course do not buy the crazy intense GFS solutions with record-breaking snows (though fun to look at from the perspective of just what COULD happen in the most ideal, extreme case!). But I am encouraged that we could still quite possibly see a decent warning-level snow. I think that would be quite a win.

I guess one of the most important things, ignoring the ridiculous coastal the GFS has been showing, is how is the Euro handling the IVT on this run? Is that improved at least?

Yeah, thermals look like crap like they did at 12Z.

Yeah maybe it wasn't quite a dual low at 12Z. I was just recalling as I looped through the surface depiction that it "jumped" suddenly to the northwest between hour 78 and 84. And there seemed to be a sort of extension to the northwest at 78 when the low was centered east of Hatteras, then an extension to the east when it jumped toward the Delmarva area. Maybe that was just simply how TT decided to place their "L" though and not a real jump.

Haha, I was going to say, isn't there some general "rule" (weenie rule) that the GFS supposedly handles NS energy better? But in all seriousness, obviously these last two ridiculous solutions are simply not going to occur (we wish, but let's be realistic here!). It's out on its own in terms of that extreme. However, I wonder if we can hedge toward thinking that maybe a less than perfectly ideal interplay between the two SWs can STILL get us a pretty damned decent event. Going back to those images you showed before with the IVT setup, it seems that while some model runs shifted it east, it was also fairly wide? Wonder if that could also be a good thing.

Has that same "dual low" position as 12Z. In the 12Z run, it kind of jumped to the closer one along the coast. Where does it go this time? Also, not sure if other models had that dual structure, and not totally sure what's causing it other than something with the phasing.

This is all we can hope for. As was mentioned earlier, there are a lot of vorts flying around in there which complicates the setup. It's pretty obvious what we ideally want is for something to phase and create a deep/intense enough low that can tuck toward the coast more and also draw in some colder air. The 18Z GFS and 12Z CMC showed how that can occur. We don't want some broad, dull trough that scoots a weak wave out to sea.

I'll say for myself that yes, I have gone back and forth debating with myself on this kind of thing. In my case, it's photography gear (photography is a major hobby of mine!). I tend to look into upgrades for newer camera body versions every now and then, and scrutinize details, seeing if it's really worth it and if I'd need it for my purposes, etc. In general, it's not excessive in terms of cost...an investment for sure, but nothing like having to get a loan out, LOL!! Plus, I would factor in how much I could sell my current equipment for to partially defray some of the cost. In general, it is clearly worth it and overall not too bad in terms of cost. Especially since when I get something like that, it gets a LOT of good use. It's a bit difficult, being a bit of a technophile, when I see all these neat new features, and I have to really think hard how much I truly need it for what I do. But when I've taken the plunge, it's definitely worth it and I've saved up some for that. So I'd say that if the cost is not excessive and not overly "painful" in your case, and it's something you most definitely would get a lot of use from and make your work easier...go for it! And if you can somehow sell your current setup, even for just a relatively small amount, that can help too. Especially if your family is saying sure, go on ahead and do that for yourself if the equipment will enhance your artwork. For instance, a couple of years ago I upgraded my camera body to a Canon R5. It's not cheap, but not their highest end either. My camera at the time was fine. But the R5 had a fair bit more that I seriously would use, so I went for it and haven't regretted that. The damned thing is a workhorse and takes amazing shots, and I can probably keep it for a couple of years more barring something like it having serious issues or damaging it somehow. And I sold/traded in my previous camera which actually cut the net cost nearly in half which helped.

I know there's a lot of focus obviously on this upcoming weekend, but did anyone else notice that guidance has been showing a decent window around the March 3-5 period now for a few days? We'll see if that's real, but I'm getting a bit intrigued now that something has been showing up around then.

Look up Gilbert and Sullivan comic operettas, I think you'd like them. You can probably easily find recordings of any number of the operas they did...about a dozen from the 1870s to the 1890s. "Mikado" is generally recognized as their most popular and successful, both at the time it first came out and in the modern day. I've always liked G&S, grew up with recordings of them (my parents were big fans!) and was fortunate enough to see several performed live. What's interesting is that Sullivan (who did the music) was already widely recognized as a successful composer outside of the stuff he did with Gilbert, while Gilbert himself was a bit of a curmudgeon though had a biting wit, publishing various things in magazines and such at the time. The two of them collaborating together (great music, humorous and biting lyrics) were amazing; you cannot separate the music from the lyrics. Though they did not get along personally much of the time. And from what I understand, Queen Victoria at times was not overly fond of Gilbert's poking fun at various aspects of the government, etc. ("WE are not amused!!"). Sullivan was knighted while still alive, Gilbert was knighted posthumously. While I absolutely love "Mikado" and find it to be their most clever work, my favorite is actually "Yeoman of the Guard" which is their most serious operetta and actually a bit tragic in the end (though still with an edge of humor). Funny thing too about "Mikado." Some of the lyrics (such as the "Little List" song) can be modified to throw in local or current event references! They just facilitate themselves to that. I recall seeing it performed live one year in Ohio (not sure if it exists anymore, the Ohio Light Opera Company), they did several G&S performances each year. At the time, Reagan was President, and the person playing Ko-Ko, while singing "Little List" near the end threw in an aside of "...and Nancy, you know who!" That got quite the laugh from the audience!

I thought they pronounce it "Ball-mer" up that way!!!

Well, you know in Gilbert & Sullivan's "Mikado", the "piano organist" is on Ko-Ko's list for potential victims to be beheaded!! (BTW, "guy" in these lyrics as I understand it, refers to someone dressing like Guy Fawkes, for Guy Fawks Day. Silly Brits!!!) There's the banjo serenader, and the others of his race And the piano-organist — I've got him on the list! And the people who eat peppermint and puff it in your face They never would be missed — they never would be missed! Then the idiot who praises, with enthusiastic tone All centuries but this, and every country but his own; And the lady from the provinces, who dresses like a guy And who "doesn't think she dances, but would rather like to try"; And that singular anomaly, the lady novelist — I don't think she'd be missed — I'm sure she'd not be missed!

FYP!!!

You mean, it IS (or was) showing nothing at 12Z?

Can't exactly recall what 12Z looked like, but the overall "distribution" looks a bit more "even" so to speak.

The comment you replied to is kind of ridiculous on its face, with the "Climo absolutely says no to this one." Seriously? Yeah, "climatologically" our odds decrease as we now head later into the season and March. But "absolutely no" is, to put it not so politely, a silly thing to say. I guess all those later season and March snows we've gotten over the years never occurred. In reality, we're generally realistically "in the game" for at least something up to perhaps about mid-March. Could we end up with little or nothing or even rain from this potential event? And nothing the rest of the season? Yeah, sure...of course! But I wouldn't say that's because "climo told us it's a no-go and it just followed that!" Each discrete event is its own entity with the given conditions as they exist; in other words, "climatology" is different from "weather."