Scarlet Pimpernel

Someone in one of the storm event threads mentioned the St. Pat's storm in March 2014 (I think @yoda did, or maybe it was another March storm he meant?). While I totally get the concern about temperatures at the start of this upcoming event, I have to think that if we get the rates that the models are indicating, and with still a fair amount occurring late day and overnight, we should still accumulate a decent amount here. For some perspective, here's how that St. Pat's storm looked at DCA for the week leading into it (date, max temp, min temp, average temp, temp departure, HDD, CDD, precip, snow, snow depth). Notice how warm it was most of the days before, plus this was ~3 weeks LATER than where we are now. 2014-03-10 60 37 48.5 6.1 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2014-03-11 67 41 54.0 11.3 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2014-03-12 67 31 49.0 6.0 16 0 0.10 0.0 0 2014-03-13 33 20 26.5 -16.8 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 2014-03-14 55 22 38.5 -5.1 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2014-03-15 66 39 52.5 8.6 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2014-03-16 45 26 35.5 -8.7 29 0 0.19 4.9 0 2014-03-17 31 24 27.5 -17.0 37 0 0.27 3.2 7

Fair enough! But I just get a laugh out of that Groucho Marx eyebrow gif!!!

OK, @Maestrobjwa, given what's transpired in the models today, do you think it's time to raise more than half an eyebrow? Can we go full GROUCHO?!?!

Yup...and that also would cover essentially the entire region.

Seems pretty reasonable for an initial broad forecast on amounts, given the uncertainty that still exists. Either way, that's a warning-level amount across much of this subforum and beyond, including DC-Balt.

True, not spiking the football by any means on this event. I mostly meant that in reference to the fact that it has now reached 2 storm-related threads AND a dedicated JV Banter one, so that's like big time right there!

Yeah I don't totally get it. If we by chance were to get something like an area-wide 6-10 or 8-12" say, I honestly couldn't care if PHL, NYC, or BOS got 2 feet. I mean really, for awhile this week it was looking dubious for a slushy inch or so with the GFS out on its own in lala land with a ridiculous amount, and now we've got a legit chance at solid warning-criteria. Can't complain too much.

Regardless of how this turns out, you're here in spirit, with GUYS and FOLKS!!!

LOL! Well, personally I couldn't care less how much they get even if they get totally bombed, as long as we can score well here.

Ehhh, well if you get called to a jury screening just say "I think the defendant is guilty as sin!!" and get tossed from any jury consideration, and you're done! LOL!!!

@Maestrobjwa, congrats, man!!! Your first storm thread was big enough to require a 2nd one, and now even its own "JV/Banter" side-bar thread!! Let's bring this damned thing home!

Just don't go to RehobEth, eh?!?! (If you saw the comments earlier on the correct spelling, which is yours, RehobOth!)

LOL, well good thing to not be sober on a Friday night (sipping some Kahlua now as I write this)! I actually responded to @stormtracker's post saying it must now be a record number of "Haha" reactions to a single post ever (I added #36)!!!

There are now 36 "Haha/LOL" reactions to your post here, I added the last one...must now be a record or near record number of those for a single post!!!

Speaking of volunteering for sacrifice, since I know you're also a LOTR fan, there's always Frodo!

I half wonder if the GFS is itself almost becoming a "consensus" model!! It's backed way off from the crazy 30-40" amounts from the 12Z cycle yesterday, but it's more or less kept the same overall look and development. And the amounts (outside the really nutty run) are pretty damned good overall. (ETA: Yes, I've had a bit to drink, and called the GFS a "consensus" look, OMG!!!)

Meh, they use Celsius, we use Fahrenheit, plus they drive on the wrong side of the road!! There's your problem!!

Who cares? As long as we can score well in this region, I couldn't give a shit if New England gets hammered better with a lot more. Why do people care so much if they get bombed but we "only" get, say, 6-10"?

I know it's pretty slow here in this medium range thread given the potential event this weekend...but that first week of March is still looking kinda intriguing!!!

So, not quite Groucho level but getting close???

In reality, I think we reach some kind of consensus in one way or another, there won't be some "cave" to either the extreme GFS result or getting nada or snow TV white rain. The trends this afternoon should certainly lend more confidence to a warning-level snow event I would think, whether the inverted trough is mostly responsible or more coastal action, or some combination. There is no way in hell we get the GFS amounts of course, but taking all guidance into account (including the latest AI models), you'd have to say an overall 4-6" or so event is now very much on the table. Obviously that could change a lot either way with later runs, but I like the semi-convergence to SOMETHING decent.

It ain't over or decided yet of course (but I know you know that!)...however, I have to feel a bit more confident in a solid warning-level snowfall at this point. Obviously the crazy GFS amounts are just that...crazy...but I like seeing the Euro edge in that direction (as well as the Euro/GFS AI versions). Now, can we get the Hessian and Canuck models to concur, LOL!!!

This, absolutely! I of course do not buy the crazy intense GFS solutions with record-breaking snows (though fun to look at from the perspective of just what COULD happen in the most ideal, extreme case!). But I am encouraged that we could still quite possibly see a decent warning-level snow. I think that would be quite a win.