BooneWX

If this blocking continues to establish, we’re in play even during a seemingly mild setup or stretch. I can’t recall a block this persistent or stout in some time. You’re bound to get a high to the north and a storm eventually. The southern jet is getting some life as well. Changes are afoot my friends.

Again. It’s getting noisy in this timeframe. Euro has a cutter but a stout cad delivering an ice storm. .

A lot of model noise for the 4th - 7th with more hits centered around the 6th.

EPS says bye bye Aleutian Ridge

Before I get busy tomorrow, I wanted to wish all of you a Merry Christmas! I hope everyone put a miller b and a 1035 high in Upstate NY on their list for Santa

For what it’s worth, Cosgrove and Bam are in the same boat. Cosgrove has been saying look out for mid-late Jan since early fall.

I like Bam’s thinking the most. If you didn’t watch today’s LR video on YouTube, give it a watch. This is likely to be transient warmth followed by transient cold we’re seeing show up. @wncsnowis spot on with Bam’s comments. The pattern isn’t supportive for sustained cold + moisture (right now). I still think we need to move the Aleutian pig before that comes. Luckily, as we move past that week 2 period of Jan, we may finally get the help we need in that department with some tropical forcing.

That would align with the MJO progression

Euro op, the ai ops and to a degree, even the gfs picked up on it before the ensembles. Quite jarring to see.

lol. Weather can humble even the most arrogant folks.

Overrated torch and Friday is trending towards 40s. .

You indeed called the potential early on. I hope McDowell gets 20”.

Aligns with Bam’s original forecast for the period into and after new years. He’s now saying Jan 7th is a date that needs to be circled on the east coast.

Are we wedging out of Friday’s heat wave? .

It’s the trashFS but not gonna lie, that happy hour run was fun.

What does everyone want? Don’t tell me a foot+, that’s obvious. Give me something more attainable. I’ll start: I would love about 6” of snow with a delayed warm nose that delivers a 1” blanket of sleet on top. Sledding for days on the ice sheet with my daughter and brutal cold on the backside.

Jan 22 had a very fun miller b

Next week looks downright chilly

I agree but we’re not looking at what I’d call a true -PNA. A ridge centered over Montana can work all the same. It’s a -PNA on paper because it wouldn’t be centered right over the west coast and it’s not a particularly sharp ridge.

A lot of Baja lows in 12z. Wonder if we could kick one east.

I do agree that post-Jan 7 looks mighty tasty rn. That’s roughly when winter started in earnest last year.

Is the Pacific uncooperative though? If we keep trending towards blocking and an eastern trough, you're going to get a ridge out west even if it isn’t in a perfect position and a true +PNA look. The pacific jet will be sort of irrelevant because the only way you’re scoring anyways is to have an anchored high north of us, which will feed the cold. Point being, I’m not exactly fretting about Pacific air when we have a continental source to tap into. Another thing. If we keep getting blocking, that ridge is going west. It won’t be your quintessential +PNA look, but an Idaho/Montana ridge works here. Heck, a Seattle ridge tends to leave room for storms to cut.

24.4° - got a bit lower than I had anticipated

I’m not on the board with a cold Feb yet but with a decreasing Niña influence, I don’t think it’s out of the question to at least be near average. That would be a huge shift from years of late.

The Panthers are still playing meaningful football in December, so I’ve got hope that cold can come back