BooneWX

For some. For others, we’ll be switching to tracking events that actually occur here, like 500 year rainfall events and 40 degree temps in May.

Regardless of the winter, I’m glad this season brought us this thread! One day we’re partying in the hills again but until then, let’s keep the good vibes flowing with thunderboomer season.

With things looking the way they do, I figure many on this forum will start checking out until late next fall so I just wanted to say thanks and I enjoyed the ride, even if it wasn’t a good one. We’re all nuts about meteorology and I learn more in this group than anywhere else. A special shout out to @GaWxfor the play by play this winter and here’s to hoping this is 1993 .

What a fun snow event to our north tonight. The dynamics have taken me by surprise with the thundersnow and high rates for folks thinking they would get a light event. The poor mets at NWS St.Louis issued an apology for the forecast being too low compared to reality . Could you imagine being mad about too much snow? Is there such a thing?

This storm and its gradient were absolutely wild. Lenoir barely getting a coating but granite falls getting half a foot is quite amazing since thats just a few miles as the crow flies.

I’m gonna be that guy…. Torch baby torch! Let’s knock out pollen season efficiently and get to that beautiful time of year on steamy days when you’re watching 30k ft towers break the cap in the distance and fall asleep to those long rumbles of thunder.

This is off-subject so I’ll limit it to one post but if you haven’t taken time today to follow the model madness going on with the storm coming to the northeast, you’re doing yourself a disservice. They’ve had this thing shift hundreds of miles inside 36 hrs until event start. There are areas currently under a winter storm warning that went from getting a foot to maybe not even a flake in a 12 hr span. And again, this event is CLOSE! Shifts you’d possibly expect 96 hrs out occurring the day before.

Check out the anomaly’s south of the Aleutian Islands….sort of explains why we consistently pop a ridge in that region and can never sustain it closer to the Lower 48.

Looking under the hood, our ridge out west starts to look better on the GEFS but right as it starts to get established and begins letting the cold air dump east, it’s severed in half by a rapidly developing west coast trough. Just another example in the long list of examples where the pacific keeps the cold in the long range from entering the short range.

Another layer to this climate change conversation: We as a region are very dependent on proper cold from source regions. Snowpack to our north has been absolutely anemic this year and in years past. Arctic air doesn’t have that same punch that it used to because of it imo. As climate change warms the northern latitudes, it’s just going to get increasingly more challenging for cold air to not moderate as it moves south.

I want to give a shout out to @BuffaloWeather. While the winter in the south sucked, your livestreams during lake effect have not. Hopefully you’ve got one more event left at least!

I really think it’s this La Niña-ish pattern that’s truly killing us. The cold air transport is completely shut off as long as we have a parade of lows traversing a path from Alberta to New England. I love that we’ve had blocking this winter at times but that’s useless unless you have a high to anchor in. One thing is for sure, the moisture is there. My yard is absolute muck right now, which is hilariously ironic after a fall completely devoid of rain.

This La Niña pattern in the middle of an El Niño is truly something

Luckily the ridge out west is trending stronger. We need it to go a bit taller but we’re close.

Really enjoyed today. Almost made it 70 degrees! Got some outside work done with enough time left to fish. If I’d known the rain would hold off that long, I would’ve smoked a Boston Butt.

Yea I’m not even trying to bash the winter. I’m just sick of not being allowed to talk about the weather in the mid range thread if it doesn’t fit the cold/snowy narrative folks want. Weather is weather and I love it year around. People who don’t want anything other than pro-snow comments being made can touch grass.

Gotta talk here more since the only damn comments in the main thread that are allowed are ones where we ignorantly wish cast a snowy winter.

Last point on this since we’ve been asked to return to the wishcasting for snow comments to stay on topic. im by no means arguing that every anomaly is related to climate change. I made a point that we’re seeing less and less winter weather in the south. This predates 5 years of poor east coast patterns. Heck, take winter out of the equation and just look at the overall averages for the past 20 years and you can see the trend. Again, you’re absolutely right that we can’t blame every specific event on the climate but the trend is not our friend. edit: and yes, scorching is the best way to describe the ocean when its temps are on par with mid-summer.

I can assure you that me making a link between climate change and how it impacts our mid range pattern is a lot more on topic than anything else on this platform the past 3 weeks.

Respectfully - you can’t make a realistic climate change argument by comparing the Sierra’s to our region. the bottom line is that our oceans are scorching. Atlantic sea surface temps are on pace with JUNE in February. Our poor pacific pattern is likely caused by how much warmth the basin is holding as well. Snowfall in the south has been trending downward the past 20 years and extreme temps are trending up. This isn’t a “bad spell,” this is climatology. So yes, I can make reasonable assumptions based on climatological facts.

I’m not mad a bit. Going fishing later!

You know as well as I do that winter always arrives in April

No need for me to pile on but there’s not much to see here. The cold pattern looks seasonal at best and seasonal isn’t going to get it done. Not to be doom and gloom but I said a few weeks ago we would all have to adjust our expectations with climate change and here we are. Winter conditions are going to be increasingly unlikely outside of the mts and that’s just our reality. When we do get snow (and we will), enjoy the hell out of it because you’ll never know how long it’ll be until the next round.