BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Now here’s some guidance that is appropriate for injecting hope .
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Good or bad runs, it doesn’t matter with this upcoming storm - the gfs can’t be valued in any depiction. It’s as useful as the hrrr at 48 hrs.
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Guys I’m going to be really negative this week so I apologize in advance. Partly because im in ill believe it when I see it on the ground mode, but I’m also going to generate good mojo by telling Mother Nature she’s not capable of pulling it off.
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Which model verified best for today’s event in your eyes? I feel like the Euro AI did really well but I may be wrong.
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Need to keep that HP position. Right now it prevents a cutter but scoot it east and a 1040 is going to lead to some bone dry weather.
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Yep. Typical SE trend will commence. And no I’m not kidding or being sarcastic with that statement.
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Wish I would’ve never seen that
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Insane 12z suite lmao. If we didn’t have an active storm at this very moment, the board would be crashing.
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I feel for yall. I had a bad feeling for all down east when my temp 10 miles from the escarpment wasn’t dropping at 12 am last night.
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It was fun for a few minutes! Nice to see some flakes. Next 10-14 days look really anomalous and promising. Can’t wait to see it devolve into some northern stream dominated mess and I have to watch the beach boys get 460”. Make our climo great again!
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Congrats to all that scored today! Wild to see snow that far south two years in a row. This is the type of anomaly that will turn some kids into meteorologists.
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Insane blocking signature showing up. Let’s just get the southern jet involved and we’ll cook.
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LIGHT SNOW
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Radar filling in across WNC. Let’s see if we can get at least a few mood flakes.
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A painful amount of “close but no cigar” setups in WNC for a while now. We’re snow starved down in the foothills but yall kinda are too. Ik nwf happens frequently but it feels like it’s been a century since anyone west of I-77 has seen a synoptic setup.
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Agree 100% with everything above. To me, the biggest takeaway from this storm won’t be the models though. We all should’ve known better because there was no semblance of a HP to our north. Truly a cold chasing moisture event and out of 20 storms, you might score on 1/2 of those setups. Moving forward, I’ll be discounting any storm that doesn’t have this. It’s a minimum requirement around here for snow.
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Game on if the blocking comes to fruition, but that’s the main thing I’ll be watching. Nice ridge bridge showing up near the arctic, displacing the TPV almost to New England. Could also be a suppression signal with extreme cold but we seem to have a Nino look and an increasingly active southern jet which makes sense with how fast the Nina background state is collapsing.
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I know the caveats but the AI models really have a barking signal in that 7-10 day range. Can’t trust a thing, but the big dogs always bark early. There’s some absolutely insane ensemble means being printed out cycle after cycle. Gives me some of the same vibes from Dec 2009, Feb 2014 and Dec 2018.
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You might be seeing the edge of the arctic air a bit before me. Or at least, that’s what I’m telling myself to feel better.
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Lmao. I’m at 46 with a dew of 39. Gonna take a hell of an arctic push to even get to the upper 30s.
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.
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Wild ride of a week. It’s crazy how moisture was the biggest question all week and we thought the cold would be in place but man that front is dragging a**.
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There’s going to be a lot of broken hearts tomorrow across the southeast. That cold air is just not moving in a hurry, plus you have to plan for the slow spillage over the mountains. I could see some areas south of the apps pulling it off, but even then, wet snow falling onto warm, wet ground is a recipe for disappointment.
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Bump. Temps hit the low 50s that day too.
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Another tick west by the AI GFS
