BooneWX

It’s been a long time since we’ve had lee side enhancement. I couldn’t even recall the last time we’ve had that setup. Long overdue.

Agreed because it hasn’t really waivered on evolution or footprint, just some ticks down in precip. Virtually no track shift the last few runs.

I know it’s depressing when we’re all coming off the GFS and Canadian highs from earlier, but don’t sleep on that ULL. It’s the type of setup that’ll lull you to sleep until Thursday night when the CAMs really come into range and can analyze the convective setup. There would be some BIG winners and some big losers. One of those storms where someone gets a death band to the northwest of the ULL.

It’s ULL or bust according to Wnext. Thats not an unreasonable output. Hope for a phase but an ULL can really thump in these setups. I wouldn’t expect details to be ironed out until Thursday if that’s indeed the victory path.

Still have a few more minutes, it’s not out yet

I feel like that was a really positive 12z

It has been a loooooooong time since we’ve seen any Lee side trough or enhancement. Could we break the drought?

I’d imagine the QPF could be quite undermodeled at this range. A low that close to the coast and that strong is going to throw a much healthier precip shield much further west than modeled.

Michael Clark says perk up. Hopefully he’s as correct as he was last weekend. .

Wrong still lol. We had models missing REAL-TIME analysis this weekend. This threat is far from dead.

Everyone down in the dumps and here I am browsing options at local Can-Am dealers

9.7 - shocked it wasn’t lower with the glacier on the ground

On the ULL: if that becomes our primary way to score, hold onto your seats. Globals will be absolutely horrendous these next two days. We could see runs dropping a foot and then dropping nothing every 6 hrs. CAMs will have to come into range to provide clarity on that particular setup. Trying to figure out moisture/deform bands in the winter time with an ULL is like trying to pinpoint where a pop up storm will occur 2 days out in the summer

Also the euro ai does not agree with its lesser physics based brother

In my experience, Weathernext does good on totals/moisture but it’s not lapping anyone in that regard. But it does run circles around every other model on track and the overall setup. I’d be worried if it lost it out to sea. The 3 run trend for it is virtually the same and locked in.

Not surprised but also still happy with the footprint. Still a fine 3-6” swath at 15:1 ratios. Western side of the state might be more in the 17/18:1 range.

Everyone breathe. We’re a week removed from watching the euro shift 400 miles in a run. It missed the phase, not the storm all together.

0z. 6z run comes out at 8 .

Good morning my Appalachian brethren. I hope your week is going well. I’ve come here to join forces as a collective council. For years, we’ve been divided by rich (windward hills) and poor (leeward hills). The time has come for forces to align. There was a period many years ago where we could forcefully WILL an out-east weenie map westward. Do we have the same magic in us? I think we could. Everyone focus all of your positive energy as a collective western NC body to get the pretty pink colors over us by say Thursday.

I believe the chart I had was shared by a meteorologist on X more familiar with the westhernext suite, so I’ll see if I can find that.

Weathernext has been outpacing other suite’s since tropical season, and not even relatively close either. I had a chart a while back, I’ll look today and see if it’s still on my computer and share it with you.

Weathernext with another tick east

Icon is following the NAM (I know), west, with our northern stream. Keep playing around with that look, you’ll drop the wave somewhere around Arkansas and instead of your late bloomer, you get a gulf low

That and hope Bill’s girlfriend isn’t coaching

Field goals don’t win ball games. 6-9” would definitely be a TD tho.