BooneWX

My gut says north of I-85 and west of the triangle is a sleet fest of epic proportions and that’ll start showing itself in short range guidance tomorrow and Friday.

Icon starting positively as well…..

I’ll need it because inevitably the next system will happen in a week or two, phasing will be impossible and I’ll watch it snow in Tampa.

Yall won’t have to hear the whining from us foothills guys anymore! We’ll be in the Stone Age for a while

Euro OP with small improvements. Less interaction with that northern energy as the Baja blast slips sw.

WSWs hoisted

More phasing means a stronger cyclone, the stronger the cyclone, the more latitude it gains to move poleward. It’s also plowing into an increasingly transient high. A big thing that’s changed the past few days is that our high isn’t as “locked in” as we thought. It’s scooting into a less and less favorable position as the storm progresses.

UKIE is major swing colder and deeper with the cad from 0z

100%. I think this is setting up to be the sleet storm of the century in our neck of the woods.

Flatter AIGFS fwiw

All of us across WNC are about to find out just how strong the trees affected by Helene really are

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Toss the CMC at your own risk. It might be struggling synoptically but it’s not that wild of a solution and it performs well evaluating CAD.

My gut for all of us is a sleet fest but it could be kinda fun because we’re talking 4-6” of it. I personally have never seen that and I love a good freak show.

Ah the GFS. The soldier I want in my corner.

I’m on your side man and I hope that’s the case. We’ve certainly seen suppression win the past few years. Hope I didn’t seem argumentative. I just wanted to support what I was saying and not just come across as a Debbie downer.

At this point, I want that northern energy to keep ticking west. It could miss the southern stream completely by doing so.

Met, I don’t disagree with you at all here man. It’s awful at 84. I was just making a point that the ingredients are sort of baked in for this setup much earlier. The interaction with the trough over Montana and the Baja low is how we’ve arrived at this point - which isn’t happening that far in the distant future. Modeling confidence for that interaction is only increasing each run.

Not panicking at range. It matches the euro lock in step in its useful range and everything with that interaction dictates our downstream result.

I want the Bradford Pears budding in 2 weeks

The NAM is identical to the euro in the useful part of its range, which matters most, because the interaction with the Baja blast and the trough over Montana dictates everything downstream.

I’m starting to think there’s a non-zero chance the Carolinas southward might can mostly dodge the bullet. It’s not a high chance but if we keep cutting further west, there will be a tremendous dry slot and less precip to cause damage. Prob the best case scenario at this point because it’s not coming south enough to snow anymore.

Jimbo, I hope your back feels better after this weekend. If this trends back to us, you’ll have to injure something else next year though. Sorry.

This is a rant and whining, so if you don’t want to read it, that’s fine, ignore and press onward but I just have to get it off my chest. Is it ever going to snow a warning criteria amount here again? How long do we have to wait? 5 more? 10 more? 15 more years? I really wonder. We can’t do one damn thing right. For years we’ve watched suppression be the reason we’ve missed and now in crunch time we’re going to get all of the amplitude we possibly need. We literally are allergic to winning. Go ahead and crack open the salt container for when we see a suppressed storm in a few weeks so Charleston can score again. I hate this sport sometimes.

It’s over boys! Cope and get those chainsaws ready.