BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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It’s been a minute since I’ve seen pinks on any clown map around here
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Sir, this is a Wendy’s
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If we waste that look around MLK Day on the euro, we suck. - Extremely tall west coast ridge - deep deep eastern trough - a little bit of ridging in west Atlantic - SER nowhere in sight - troughing east of Hawaii If you showed me the 500mb look with no context, I’d assume you’re showing me an analog for a memorable storm.
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We’re going to eventually get a weenie run for the ages here soon. So much to like from that 12z suite.
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I mean my goodness. .
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Oh boy. The Euro might be setting up for glory on the second storm.
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Euro is a close miss. I’m fine with that at this range. It has the signal and that’s all we need this far out.
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We need that full phase to capitalize but so far, our source issue for cold looks better. Some really cold, dry air lurking just to the north…The gfs would likely be fine in that regard at this range - 1032 over lower Ontario. CAD would likely trend stouter until go time. Icon is less enthused about the thermals but shows exactly what you can do if the northern stream and southern stream decide to mingle. It was very close to a solid 4-8” event for central/western NC northward. Just needed a few small tweaks.
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1/15 interest as of 12z: Icon: proper digging, phase GFS: northern stream dominant, tries a late phase Different solutions, growing noise.
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Icon opening 12z with a foothills special
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This event is very close to being a whopper for I-85 north. It’s a classic look for a major winter storm in the upper southeast. We just need a bit more help with digging and tilt. It would be really nice if our source region for cold wasn’t baking right now.
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I hope the cards are right and the foothills forum has the Krispy Kreme light on all week
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Inside 10 days, that’s a heck of a look at 500mb. You can see the trough dig and take on a neutral tilt in the run. I really wish we weren’t stepping down from a blow torch because this would be money. We’d need more digging and time for it to go negative, which is doable, but likely this will be a close miss. .
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We do need noise though. You definitely can’t take them seriously but if we’re going to manage anything fruitful out of this pattern, we need the models to start baring out that fruit. Good sign of things to come hopefully. I love that we’ve also seen a few modes of winter weather. We have some overrunning outputs and some massive miller a signals.
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Fantasy runs are so back!
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Same here. There’s just not enough cold air to work with unless we get some sort of mega wedge as we work into the medium range. You can see in the 12z guidance already that our PNA is looking a bit better and we get a train of energy coming down out of the Rockies. It’s usually never the first storm here anyways - always the second and third you have to watch.
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Big takeaway, this pattern, especially if the TPV continues to show up in lower latitudes is flirting with big dog potential. I’m not as concerned about suppression because we are already seeing some west Atlantic ridging and linkage between energy for once. Should slow things down, allow phasing for a change, and watch it ride that gradient.
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I think you’re right. Last week, my concern was that our source region really gets scoured out by mild Pacific air and the models are reflecting that. It shouldn’t take long to reload Canada if we get some cross polar flow, but yea, a lot of this will be largely dependent on trapping already marginal cold air and making the environment ripe for stout HPs.
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Yall would have to put our foothills thread on suicide watch if it played out like that lol
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Yea that run was a weather weenie’s paradise. Overall, the pattern held in the overnight guidance. It’s a step down process that gradually gets cooler over time. A -NAO really starts to show up later in the scene and bully some cold air down the east coast. That gfs fantasy run was something we really hasn’t seen in a while: deep CAD and a very dynamic shortwave digging all the way to the Gulf before a bee line north. A mauler from NC to Maine.
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And it’s digital snow not at hour 360!
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Tried to upload the GFS AI loop but alas. Either way, I like the evolution it shows. We lose our PNA a little bit for some time but cold really dumps from the lakes south. There’s several instances where the trough orientation digs sharply.
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Not gonna lie. I want a winter storm but I’m longing for summer. I know…sinful to say. Our house has had a virus at least biweekly since Oct. I miss getting outside in the evenings, I miss fishing and tbh, I miss a good peak heating thunderstorm.
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It screams overrunning potential.
