BooneWX

Bump. Temps hit the low 50s that day too.

Another tick west by the AI GFS

Here we go

Incredibly. If I remember correctly, it was barely forecasted to be advisory level and I ended up with about 4.5” inches of heavy wet snow. The models right up until go time just couldn’t grasp the upslope flow into the foothills. I believe that storm happened the Saturday night before the Super Bowl.

Anyone else get a Feb 2021 vibe from this or just me?

The pattern is there. We’ll have blocking for once.

From Chris and Dan this morning .

FV3 lookin nice

We hug the 12z RAP

I still think shift or not, with that moisture orientation being sw to ne, we’ll overachieve on rates and qpf

There’s also a slim chance but a non-zero chance nonetheless that we hit a boom scenario of 2-4”. All it’s going to take is that front getting a little hung up in the mountains and that axis of heaviest moisture will be over us, not the piedmont.

Sref plumes are up to a mean of around 1.3” at KHKY. My gut says a slushy half an inch tomorrow but that’d be a hell of a victory after watching this storm run away from us.

We’re probably about to have a healthy 12z nam

She’s charging west, boys

I’m amassing an army of trace amounts these past few winters. GIVE ME ANOTHER! Soon I’ll have enough to count .1!

Recon went in, we’re ticking west and I just phoned the were almost back department

Exact thing Webb cautioned about for days. Those fronts are never progressive!

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Much improved look tho

I know none of you personally but love all of you virtually. This thread has been nothing but a basket case and it wouldn’t be fun any other way. Biggest improvement with SouthernWX s creation is moving the egos and the “stay on topic” boys that used to be on this board there and making this a truly unhinged, unmitigated, anarchist discussion.

Strung out or not, we are working with physics in our area aiding us. A gulf tap and some upgliding as terrain rises can do the trick.

It’ll be ingested for 0z. Interesting runs coming I think. I’ll pronounce it dead or alive after 12z tomorrow. I know I’m smoking that hopium, but man it really would not take a wild shift to get us very firmly in the game. WNC is one of the few locations I’d feel confident about the CAA being on time. Right now, the moisture footprint over the central Carolina’s doesn’t really require that much of a jump to come west. Not with 36 ish hours to go. Wouldn’t be shocked either if it’s less of a shift, and more of an amplified trend with more moisture response..

It’s a shame we can’t get the moisture here for Sunday. NAM has the dew points supportive of accumulating snowfall.

Just a gentle 100 mile shift

That Dec 2018 storm was the most relaxed I had ever been ahead of a storm. It was absolutely locked in with zero budging for a week straight and every single model was on board as well as ensembles. Our flow right now is just not slow enough to make that possible.