BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Remarkable where we stand now vs 24 hrs ago
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And by no means am I disagreeing. I do think, just looking at the upper levels, that trough orientation, rising heights to the east and waa overrunning cold air with an upslope component makes me optimistic for at least western Nc. Idk if it’s as much that I think it trends nw with time as I think we’re likely to see a much more expansive precip shield when all is said and done.
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If I was down east, I’d be really worried about cold air advection since there’s no anchored high in place. Idk if there’s any group on this website that could describe the pain of waiting for cold to slip over the mountains more than us.
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I feel like last years setup was super screwed because we watched an energy transfer happen. This one shouldn’t have that problem and is probably going to be more prone to a shift west, especially with heights rising over the Atlantic.
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My daughter said I should draw something on her doodle board. Yall think it avoids the east coast? Close shave at a minimum. .
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Hopefully a pre cursor event just like 2014…. valentines 2014 is one that’ll live in lore for a long time.
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GEFS is west even more. Webb says he doesn’t buy any eastern NC solution.
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Yep but I still think these globals are way too dry as it is. I fully expect some namming to occur Friday. Cams will tell the story.
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Imo don’t fret and split hairs on QPF quite yet. Overrunning setups tend to trend wetter down to zero hour.
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The GFS has legs because of this. They’re almost identical at that hour, just a matter of who is right on the strength.
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Yep it’s not going to be a surface depiction we want but the energy is where we’d want it now. Just needs to amp some.
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The Euro is very close to meeting the Montana benchmark that gets a lot of people involved. Idk what the surface will show shortly, but this trend is real.
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Euro with a major jump west
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By my count, about 10/15 GEFS members are hits for WNC. Several would be whoppers.
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What are your thoughts on how this shake’s out? Always appreciate your insights
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Kuchera even higher for some
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MUCH improved gfs run holy smokes
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West again on the gfs. Energy coming into Montana.
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RGEM starting off hot at 12z. Substantial tick west.
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Fwiw, Webb thinks this comes northwest down to 0 hour
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I’m not saying it’s impossible but I think what’s likely to happen is a few ticks west that get us sort of in the game and then closer to game time, she’ll swing right again. What’s changed overnight is the handling of the ridge placement out west. I don’t imagine we keep seeing that trend much longer and I do think it’ll correct closer to its tilted look albeit to a lesser degree that it’s had.
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I’ve said this a thousand times and I’ll say it again. One of these days. May be this year, or it may be 10 years from now idk, but we’re getting an over amped negatively tilted Miller A. It’ll ride 50 miles inland and bury us. I will apologize to absolutely no one and I want to hear nothing about I-85 and climo when it does.
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For western NC, the day 7-8 timeframe is of interest. And it has been for days on many models.
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Fun event unloading tonight. Come on boys, someone setup a jeb walk livestream! I want to feel the blizzard too!
