BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Jimbo, I think your surgery might be delayed
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Damage in the drizzle. That’ll be my thing to watch during this storm. We don’t want slack rates.
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Good luck scouring that wedge. It’s not an in-situ wedge, it’s a mega wedgie on steroids
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I guess what’s the old rule though? It’s not the first storm, usually the 2nd?
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You know good and well how this next one pans out! Actual suppression this time and a Pensacola winter dream. I don’t make the rules.
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I’d have to look back but if I remember right, miller b transfers usually blank areas from Greensboro east, not so much the western half of the state. We’ll be in near constant upslope flow, which is why I think our onset could be late Sat morning.
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Ah so here we are again! No lessons learned folks?
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Yep. This is going to be a scenario where you’re either seeing sleet under heavy returns or near constant freezing drizzle in between. Also, the lighter the returns, the less the waa works to the ground, so you’re going to lock in closer to 20 with no escape route.
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Be careful what you wish for with “less” qpf. Physics say warm air transport over a deep cold wedge = light precip models won’t see and radar might not see either. You might shave a few tenths off as we progress but you’re honestly just creating an environment for more efficient ice accrual.
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Precip always always always arrives early
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Looking back at the thread it’s comical how naive and stupid we all sounded. Did we really believe a near 1,000 mile long stretch of overrunning was possible? Even more hilarious, every single one of us took the bait on the 1050+ HP.
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Gonna put my flag in the sand on something though: moisture is always ahead of schedule. My thoughts are that we get a front end thump earlier on Saturday that gives us 1-2”.
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I’m telling yall. Historic Charleston storm coming. It’s the only reasonable way.
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Euro seemed to nod to the gfs at 500mb
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Overnight and 6z summary: WAGONS SOUTH
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6z euro comes in colder and further south. With that one done and the overnight modeling, this is all I got: NC: enjoy the glacier Upstate: I genuinely will be praying for yall
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Yea that’s quite an improvement from the NAM
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Idk about yall but I’m glad it’s going to miss firmly to the north. I can cope more missing it by a mile. A Virginia storm would’ve hurt but with a couple more ticks, Virginia is getting a devastating ice storm and we may go unscathed.
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The way we’re trending, I hope so. I like power.
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With all of that said, the run to run changes in the upper levels on the euro are rather mind boggling, not discounting it, but saying it’s dialed in would be a lie as well.
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For those saying this low cant plow into the high, you’re right, but that’s not what the euro was showing. The 50/50 low is moving out of position, which means blocking is falling apart, and your HP has an easy escape route north.
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The gfs depiction fits the profile of a normal miller b. I buy the solution even if I don’t buy the source.
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I buy that depiction on the gfs quite a bit. That reminds me a lot of 2022 except we had a transfer at a much lower latitude.
