BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Snow! Somewhere in the south, but not settled on where. A range of 6” to nothing for many per model guidance. Some solutions snow on the fish in the Atlantic, a few are almost at the Tennessee border. Also, a range of temps from “it will work” to “not a chance.” Much clarity added in the time you’ve been away!
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Yep I was floored by that statement as well. full context: ”I’d like my chances with this if I was NE of Atlanta in NE GA so up thru the mountains & foothills of the Apps in NC and possibly even SW VALots to like about where these folks are sitting right now. When it comes to overrunning style winter storms, I’d much rather be worried about precip occurring than getting the cold air in time, because the precip almost always verifies much higher than forecast.”
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CAMs will likely lead the way on this. Globals are not going to handle a WAA setup with great skill. Trends with short term model guidance will be the key from here on out.
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We need you to come wade through our mess and be the voice of reason. You know how we get when there’s model madness. In the same boat as many of you! Hang in there, we’ll score eventually. Mother Nature hasn’t been too kind for eastern Tenn through the foothills of NC.
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Our piece of energy is now coming ashore in northern Canada, so hopefully some clarity is added soon
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I’d like to think with that upper level look, the cutoff wouldn’t be that sharp.
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@Hvwardif you’ve recovered from that pitcher of beer, could you inject some hopium?
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We’ll hug the RRFS A (no clue what that model is but I dig its output)
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It’s the NAM but this will probably be quite the run
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My favorite part of tracking is the 6 hr shift of euphoria to cliff diving. It’s honestly what draws me in.
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Panthers made the playoffs, this stretch is way worse. Charlotte Hornets bad.
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Buddy I wish I was in the mountains lol. I’m in a hellscape called the foothills which only uptrends for 1,000 year flood events. I’m legitimately rooting for you guys - sorry if my initial comment seemed like I was ignoring our Deep South posters. It wasn’t my intention. I do have legitimate concerns forum wide that this setup could be hard to deliver on because of the now ever so marginal cold air. And no, nothing wrong with bias, we all have it. It could uptrend or downtrend for any of us.
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A warm air advection set up in a state furthest away from the cold air resupply? Genuinely not trying to be a dick, but yes it’s going to be tough for “all,” not just the NC crew. That’s why I said “all.” Rooting for you, I really am. I know how magical snow is for all of us, let alone in the Deep South, but be careful assuming that I was NC focused.
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Nah I didn’t stutter. I was talking about you too, my guy.
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Two years in a row is insane lol.
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Euro says we’re all taking an L
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Exhausting living here
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Well.
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Oh dear
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I really don’t think moisture is going to be our issue. It’s hilarious to see temps become the problem but decent rates and the surface being at 31-32 would do the trick. Globals aren’t going to handle surface cold very well either, so I’d lean on shaving 1-2° off of that.
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Keep in mind, precip always arrives ahead of schedule. That’ll be important for yall down east dealing with temperature questions.
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Get a feeling the 12z NAM is going to be a hit of epic proportions
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I’m going to stick my flag in the sand that cams will lead the way on this one. All of the belly aching on globals will soon be done. In a waa setup, you’re never going to catch the nuances that the short range models will. I expect an expansive precip shield at go time.
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Let’s party
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Thank you, king!
