BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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This is probably my last run of looking at the models for this event. I think a lot is decided by mid afternoon tomorrow regardless of what the models are showing. I hold some hope that cloud cover is going to cap temps more than what’s projected. Even 2-3° will have a big net impact 12 hrs later.
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Im afraid thats going to happen. You can tell on the models that any closeness you can buy to that limited cold air feed matters. Our DPs and temps just don’t quite get there. For the triad northward, just barely but that’s all that matters.
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I’m afraid we can’t win fellas! One of these days it’s coming to our doorstep and we will will rejoice.
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Graf is warmer on recent runs. Essentially all rain south of Wilkes, Yadkin counties in the west. Triad dangerously close unless you’re a border county.
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Alleghany County and Surry are going to be the big winners. Good for Alleghany too - they’re on the very far east end of the escarpment and don’t benefit very much from northwest flow, despite having the elevation for it.
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Load the 3k
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Colder, juicier nam run
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5:1 ratios for this would be my guess as well
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One thing to watch: color me doubtful that we get close to 50° under thick cloud cover tomorrow
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This is going to be one of those events where heavy returns = snow, lighter returns will mean light rain. Gotta hope you’re under a band that thumps.
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Caution on the clown maps for the HRRR. I did some poking around and it’s a rain sounding for most of the event except for the Virginia border northward, despite the surface depiction
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Just imagine if we could get the vort for Monday to go negatively tilted. Canadian tries to amp it up late, which is why the clown maps are better down east but a very close call to a big dog almost forum wide.
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Crazy the atmosphere knows exactly where I-40 is
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With a massive grain of salt - the gfs has much more moisture and is colder. Verbatim, more than a minor event for many edit: not colder but the front thump is thumpin
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Since no one has said it yet….. Rates will overcome!!
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Mid month ridge looks transient
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https://x.com/timbuckleywx/status/1996067257181417685?s=46
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I always love how juiced and aggressive the GRAF is
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ILL TAKE THAT FOR MONDAY AND CASSSSSH OUT
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https://x.com/timbuckleywx/status/1996067257181417685?s=46
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We’ll be getting into cam range tomorrow. Happy hunting and goodnight all!
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Interesting output. As light as the setup is, I’d think this is more of a snow or liquid situation than sleet but could make for a wintry scene as well. Just read that back and I’m so desperate that I’m ok with sleet. What a sicko!
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Monday’s clown map .
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GFS can probably sniff out a cold pattern as well as the hmon
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You know it’s a stretch when the Canadian isn’t showing anything to write home about
