BooneWX

After tonight, that should pretty much be the axe to the drought and deficit. It made a 4th quarter comeback but it has been an absolute deluge along and west of I-77.

Crazy given how close we are! I went back and looped the radar. It looks like a lot of it anchored in Caldwell county from 2-6 am

2.5” of rain since midnight

That’s a great question. I did see some Mets are hoping to utilize AI to code a new version that exists outside of NOAA servers.

Drop in! Share your best memories!

I’m sure many of you know this, but we’re down to our last few weeks with the NAM. Whether it was convective feedback issues, crushing your CAD dreams or raising them up, some of the best crashouts on this sub-forum happened at the hands of the NAM. As I write this post, we embark on one final chapter for our dear CAD leader, the NAM. A backdoor cold front is entering the Carolinas, ushering in a classic scenario east of the Apps for one final gift to measure before we lay her to rest. Please offer your condolences, or share a fond memory with the class. When all convection allowing models fall short this winter, we’ll remember her fondly.

Ik it’s the Euro Ai Ens, but this map reminded me that we’re going to miss having the NAM soon.

On the extended pattern: I had someone ask me if it wasn’t a bit early to be putting out fall decorations with it being this hot. My response: “If you’re waiting on fall weather to do fall things, it’ll be time to decorate for Christmas.” Next week is looking a little better at least. Not quite as stifling hot and maybe some rain to help.

Apparently the Canadian recently had an update, which is why I thought it’d be relevant to share this.

Funny you ask that - I was thinking randomly about October 2018 when it hit 90° multiple days in the lower elevations and I have pictures of me fly fishing with no waders like 2 weeks before Halloween. Also an El Niño year. A month and a half after wet wading, we had the big behemoth snowstorm of Dec 8/9 hit WNC. I remember the flip being harsh and the leaves still being in the infancy phase of changing colors as we flipped to Thanksgiving temps.

It’s going to be one of those years where we push this heat well into October and when the flip happens, it happens fast. Regime change meets active southern jet and suddenly you go from 80s/90s and dry to 50s and rain. I’m not saying it’ll be an early kick off to winter, but I wouldn’t be shocked if come Halloween, it feels more like late Nov/early Dec with no warning.

95°… absolutely criminal

Never ending summer

Meanwhile….. .06” in a little over a week

Unfortunate situation unfolding. I hope everyone is prepared and isn’t expecting tropical storm conditions because it’s clearly going to be much more than that. The storm is bad enough - interaction with a jet streak makes it even worse.

How many beans in the jar folks?

I may be wrong but cansips tends to have a warm bias, so this perked my interest for sure. As we’ve all said, all it takes is one storm outside of the mountains to make or break a season. I’ve got a hunch we have a rather warm winter but somehow still make or break above avg snowfall for many areas with just one well timed shot of cold air and an active storm track. Source regions will be key. My hunch is that we don’t build adequate snowpack over Canada but from that same token, does the El Niño pop a hell of a ridge on the west coast?

My bad for the bad memories. I am rooting for you guys to get the hammer this season.

I’m craving an 09/10 repeat

Last few winters have been generally good across the SE with some caveats. Are we still capable of pulling off a blockbuster? Remains to be seen… but we are due for one.

Folks in Tx/LA should be thankful this doesn’t have another 12-24 hrs over water. It was finally taking advantage of its environment in the 11th hour.

Lightning in the core, convection rotating upshear.

Quite the jog south by the core in recent radar frames. It looks like the stronger connection to the south may have given it a tug. It’s probably a wash at this point, but that may have bought it an extra hour or two.

I drank two the other night. I turned the air down to 66 and closed the blinds. Worked like charm.

Been cleaning up one of my pine trees, there’s several down across the neighborhood. Looks like we had a downburst while I was at work.