BooneWX

Some thoughts: - Extreme swings this winter. Moreso than usual. I think a cold tap will exist in the Hudson Bay, which fits the enso and overall long range pattern. With that being said, I think the SER will have its moments of rage as well. Last year had quite a bit of temperature stability for most in the eastern conus, but I think we see a lot of days that get into the 60s, followed by 2-3 days in the 30s/40s in quick succession. - I.e. Blocking over the Atlantic doesn’t appear to be favored, so that’s why I think my last sentence will be true. - As always, this will be a critical matchmaking process with moisture and cold. Last year, we were spoiled with a favorable upper level pattern quite a bit, which made the matchmaking odds better, but some still weren’t able to cash in.

I’m just going to enjoy it for now. 50s and 5pm sunsets will be here soon enough.

Asheville-Nov 2 Charlotte- Nov 12 Raleigh- November 10

I don’t have the link but I saw a post yesterday showing year over year trends in snowpack over Siberia and northern Canada. It appears it’s a bit better than normal. I put little stock in enso and upper atmospheric patterns until we get closer to climo but that’s one early indicator I’ve always believed in. We’ve struggled the past few years with cold snaps modifying too much before they make it this far. Every little bit of sea ice and snowpack in the great north will help.

The EF-5 drought has been broken. .

Not even sweating it. We couldn’t make wall to wall cold for almost the entire winter work out, last year.

48° this morning!

Huge win for all of us if the trends this evening are correct. Seems like the slower organization of PTC9 and the rapid ramp up for Humberto are starting to get sniffed out. Hopefully it feels that influence more than the ULL. I’ll never forget everyone thinking the ULL last year would tug Helene from Tallahassee to Chattanooga and we saw that model bias get exposed in an unfortunate manner but maybe this time “fortunately” is the word??

Charlotte stations are doing the same. The setup has alarmingly bad potential.

Local western NC talk here: a lot to track and a lot to determine, but if the circulation meanders into SC, it’s another terrible scenario for an area still reeling from Helene. Easterly, upslope flow and a steady fetch of moisture from the Atlantic…not good. We’ve luckily had very dry antecedent conditions but that can change rapidly with plenty of convective activity expected ahead of the circulation.

Not good. Easterly flow into our region/upslope, a stalled out circulation and a fetch of moisture that is likely extremely undermodeled by low resolution depictions at this juncture. .

Not looking forward to next week.

It’s always us, unless it’s Dec-March, and then it’s everyone else

Cut off lows and tropical systems…..

I’m there as well. To get the 10” - Give me a 6” event, 3” event, with a surprise 1” at some point in the winter.

If you could only choose one option, what would you take? Option 1: Dec 2018 redo but the remainder of winter has above average temps. Option 2: Three snowfall events with varying amounts and a seasonal total of 10”. Wall to wall cold.

Yep, I can almost smell the late phase coming that cashes in everyone east of I-77.

We need it, or we’re going to have a rough wildfire season.

49.6° at my place. Wish I had time to sit outside and soak it in. Maybe soon we can time one of these fronts up for a weekend.

We are spoiled as hell to have essentially skipped the dog days entirely. It’s false fall but with each passing day, the heat won’t have that same stiffness to it. College football on the back porch tonight. Enjoy!

We’re going to pay dearly for this pleasant weather in Sept and Oct aren’t we?

Just in time for week 1 of college football.

Looks like she’s finally hopping in the car to leave

Erin is dragging her feet. Her ride is coming along quickly. What if she misses it? I’m starting to wonder….because you know the models have always been dialed in on UL lows in the North Atlantic. Rarely ever miss!

Erin looks like it’s definitely going to be a mess for the OBX. It won’t be anything they aren’t used to, but it looks more and more likely that they’ll feel a big push of water + TS winds. What a crazy system. It’s always fascinating to see these MDR systems go from tight compact, Charley-like cores to large real estate systems in just a few days. Weather is cool.