BooneWX

I said this in the foothills thread the other day but the long range screams miller b possibilities east of the apps.

I’ve been exploring home snow makers so I can never experience a drought again

My fear is that it’s part of the base state. I think we revisit cold snaps many times this winter and it’s far from over in that front, but if we can’t start working it eastward like you said, it’s really going to be hard to move away from this clipper pattern in place over the eastern US. -NAO would be a huge step as @wncsnowpointed out. I’ll take my chances with a cad high but I’m struggling to see where the southern jet can get involved or we get enough digging out of the northern stream.

Bottom line: gotta kick that Aleutian Ridge

13.5! Let’s do this again in Jan, preferably after 10 inches of snow.

From what I’ve seen on Facebook, a dusting to a half an inch. It’s on the move, but I’d think if it had stayed stationary, some folks would’ve been smoked. Okracoke is getting in on the fun now.

Absolutely insane sound effect snow band .

It drives me nuts but not nearly as bad as seeing it snow weekly in the winter 20 miles from my house as the crow flies while I bask in the sun

The battle between cold air advection and sinking air in the lee is always a fun one to watch. It can humble the most stout fronts.

I finally made it. 31.8° - about 4 hrs late

Decent miller b pattern in the long range

The 12z GEFS shows an interesting evolution of the Scandinavian ridge. Its retrogrades west quickly, establishing a strong -NAO, which then pumps the cold air over Quebec down the east coast while our death ridge gets beaten into oblivion. Despite that, there’s enough of a gradient that one has to think it would open the opportunity for either a miller b or an overrunning setup that would favor the upper southeast and yes, east of the apps for once.

I’ve really stalled out at 41. I’ve been here a while. Unimpressed. Strong cold front, sure but yesterday’s projections had me at 32 by now.

Each day this week, the long range has slowly walked back on the magnitude of the warmth. I’m starting to think it’s generally just a reshuffle and reload. The cold will remain bottled up on this side of the globe and with a -NAO developing, it’s poised to CAD itself right down the spine of the apps. Without the Pacific cooperating, everything will be transient but what’s new? I don’t the think the MJO reflects results as much as folks want to believe it does, but it certainly folds heavily into modeling. We’ve been in the cod for the past few days and it’s actually been leaning on the phase 5 side of the circle. It looks like it wants to charge back into 8 here shortly, so don’t be shocked this week when Christmas torch becomes Christmas seasonal with a frigid New Year holiday.

There’s nothing about my extended forecast that looks like a torch to me. Above average? Sure. Upper 50s? Far from tanning by the pool.

Temps are starting to fall off the cliff here

Very nice day. It felt good to get outside. I even took the fly rod down to the pond near my house just to see if the bass were biting (they weren’t). I figured that’d be the case with the cold water temps but this warmup should get them stirring again. I might have to take a trip up the mountain to do a little trout fishing.

The ensembles are really trying to get a -NAO established around Christmas. We just need some signs of life from the Pacific.

No Roxboro jackpot, toss it out

Of course, without a +PNA you have nothing. Needs some positive trends there.

I think this warm up is a bit different than the head fake we saw modeled for early December. It’s coming, and it’s pretty obvious by every parameter except the MJO. The question is how long? Modeling seems to show the Scandinavian ridge migrating into a -NAO set up and the EPO going negative as well. My bet is by new years we’re back in business but I may be wrong. I think Jan could be cold before we enso rears its ugly head in Feb.

She probably saw some rogue CFS frame from 400 hrs out, posted by a FB page with a name like “SEVERE APOCALYPTIC SNOW WEATHER CENTER. NET.” She’ll call all Mets liars for it not verifying.

Let a man dream

I mean. How magical would it be to get a surprise? Radar isn’t supposed to look like this right now. .

I don’t fear the transition. I fear the staying power of the transition.