BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Yea that’s quite an improvement from the NAM
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Idk about yall but I’m glad it’s going to miss firmly to the north. I can cope more missing it by a mile. A Virginia storm would’ve hurt but with a couple more ticks, Virginia is getting a devastating ice storm and we may go unscathed.
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The way we’re trending, I hope so. I like power.
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With all of that said, the run to run changes in the upper levels on the euro are rather mind boggling, not discounting it, but saying it’s dialed in would be a lie as well.
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For those saying this low cant plow into the high, you’re right, but that’s not what the euro was showing. The 50/50 low is moving out of position, which means blocking is falling apart, and your HP has an easy escape route north.
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The gfs depiction fits the profile of a normal miller b. I buy the solution even if I don’t buy the source.
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I buy that depiction on the gfs quite a bit. That reminds me a lot of 2022 except we had a transfer at a much lower latitude.
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Baby steps. Baby steps. Keep it all in perspective. Positive trends since 12z overall.
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My gut says north of I-85 and west of the triangle is a sleet fest of epic proportions and that’ll start showing itself in short range guidance tomorrow and Friday.
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Icon starting positively as well…..
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I’ll need it because inevitably the next system will happen in a week or two, phasing will be impossible and I’ll watch it snow in Tampa.
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Yall won’t have to hear the whining from us foothills guys anymore! We’ll be in the Stone Age for a while
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Euro OP with small improvements. Less interaction with that northern energy as the Baja blast slips sw.
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WSWs hoisted
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More phasing means a stronger cyclone, the stronger the cyclone, the more latitude it gains to move poleward. It’s also plowing into an increasingly transient high. A big thing that’s changed the past few days is that our high isn’t as “locked in” as we thought. It’s scooting into a less and less favorable position as the storm progresses.
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UKIE is major swing colder and deeper with the cad from 0z
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100%. I think this is setting up to be the sleet storm of the century in our neck of the woods.
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Flatter AIGFS fwiw
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All of us across WNC are about to find out just how strong the trees affected by Helene really are
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Toss the CMC at your own risk. It might be struggling synoptically but it’s not that wild of a solution and it performs well evaluating CAD.
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My gut for all of us is a sleet fest but it could be kinda fun because we’re talking 4-6” of it. I personally have never seen that and I love a good freak show.
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Ah the GFS. The soldier I want in my corner.
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I’m on your side man and I hope that’s the case. We’ve certainly seen suppression win the past few years. Hope I didn’t seem argumentative. I just wanted to support what I was saying and not just come across as a Debbie downer.
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At this point, I want that northern energy to keep ticking west. It could miss the southern stream completely by doing so.
