BlunderStorm

Wooo! I'm cashing out. I would not say a peep til Feb of next season if this verified.

The 12z GEFS mean total snow 10:1 regressed slightly from 06z to its 0z look. Still looks good.

GFS and Canadian are aligned for the most part both solid outcomes. We can only hope the Euro stands in agreement and does not echo ICON. I will say though, if you are west or south of Knoxville you like the Canadian (more accommodating setup), if you are north or east of Knoxville you like the GFS (more moisture).

Overall very satisfied with the 12z RGEM. Had high similarity to 6z. Midwest and Midatlantic pressure was a tick high for my liking but other than that I can't complain. Unlike the indecisive NAM the RGEM puts the Carolina coastal low in the drivers seat instead of arguing with a fish low. It's flirting with a spectacular result with the lows progression very patient and the ULL getting warped into Dixie giving the eastern valley from Chatt to Tri snow showers through the runs conclusion.

RGEM seems to be keeping the plains high location consistent with 6z. Good early signal for the run.

NAM at 60 shows the Newfoundland storm a tick further NE, the plains high a tick further south. Pressure over the Mid-Atlantic is a few millibars lower, over Texas and Louisiana a bit higher. Snow from the dive of the ULL is more widespread. Interesting. Probably not a better solution for most of the sub forum. High might shove things and take away a second area of low pressure. Progression is quicker. Edit: and by 84 we have fujiwara and Jacksonville snow antics. I think besides Carver, BuCoVaWx, and myself everyone came out worse on the Kuchera. Friday at least was stout. Next up, RGEM.

Excellent trends on the 06z NAM. The upper levels show digging into the Missouri bootheel and NE Arkansas at 75 where it was east of the Mississippi at 0z. 84 land shows the beginnings of a lee side low behind the main one which is 250 miles ENE off the space coast (lol). RGEM holds serve mostly. It's been a minute since looking but the surface pressure gradient seemed slightly less positive tilt and overall org a bit smudgier. Cold might be a little punchier if the 500mb level translates.

Welp, after the first report I passed out (night shift sleep schedule lol) and fell off the wagon. But while it's still fresh I figure I could mention how it all played out. So, on the 24th after a couple hours of virga, light graupel and flurries reached the surface around 7:30 that morning. For the next 8 hours on and off despite the column being moist there wasn't the energy (I think) to support appreciable precip. A perpetual dusting was maintained exactly at pace with sublimation with temps in the upper teens in the morning and low 20s in the afternoon. In the late afternoon say around 4 rates finally ramped up and genuine accumulation started with temps in the mid 20s. This continued for 3-4 hours that evening leading to 1.5 inches of snow. Between 7 and 8 a very abrupt transition to freezing rain occurred with perhaps a few minutes of fatties, and a few minutes of sleet before the depressing zr rolled in. This continued til past midnight in the upper 20s in mby. Now, for the 25th the freezing rain continued in the early morning hours with temps creeping up into the low 30s. Ice accretion was significant. At 4AM I noted what I estimated to be at or just under a quarter inch of ice with temps on my station at 31F. By 5 AM we were above freezing in Honaker. We would remain above freezing for the rest of the day although notably hovering around 34F for the entire morning. Frankly a blessing given what could have been. Around 12:30 PM winds picked up significantly and temps shot up to 40-42F with a high around 4 PM of 43F. Around then all previous ice and snow was fully melted. Following this a gradual cooling followed with rainfall remaining moderate through the evening period. By midnight temperatures had fell to 33F. The 26th would see a strong return to frozen precip as soon as temperatures hit 32 a bit before 12:30 fully transitioning to snow by 1:00. Temperatures in the early morning cratered to the mid teens and remaining moisture began to be wrung out as a dry powdery snow with beautiful serrated columnar crystals. Over the daytime hours temperatures mainly stayed in the teens tapping the 20s late in the afternoon only to fall back immediately after. During the daylight hours snowfall was wholly continuous varying in flurries with a few miles of visibility to moderate snowfall at certain points taking visibility to under a half mile. A measurement at 9:30 PM indicated 2 inches of accumulation on pavement although winds had made some drifts up to 3 or troughs less than 1 inch. Roads were white but traction negotiable except where puddles began to ice over despite brining. For this morning a few flurries and perhaps some near diamond dust was present. Radiational cooling didn't take over properly til 4AM. The low temp this morning is 5F. Dreams were dashed by overrunning but yesterdays flakes were a nice consolation prize and a new coat of paint for this bitter cold week ahead. Signals flirt with us in the east next weekend despite some discouraging recent runs. Maybe a lil something on Wednesday who knows. It's been fun and I'm out of lurking for a bit.

Tiny pellets of graupel(?) or snow(?) less than half a mm across have broke through the surface in very limited amounts. Visibility remains in excess of 10 miles. Starting out at a frigid 16F with a DP of 9F. Winds about 7 mph from the NNE. EDIT: The column has flipped to being ready dramatically. Visibility is collapsing to a few miles and flurries are falling and accumulating on all surfaces.

Surprisingly radar returns are already glowing above SWVA. All Virga for now but we're way ahead of schedule echoing Tellico. I'll have Temps and DP shortly, batteries need to be replaced this morning.

Marginal improvements in snow on the EURO for upper mid TN and KY-VA border counties with the initial thump. Backend flakes still a no show.

Likewise. Yeah it's closer to its 18z solution. We can still benefit from ticks esp considering we're not escaping without ZR.

I can hardly fathom an outcome worse than this (for this system). Crippling ice in my neck of the woods that run. Gives me dread but I can't help but be amused. Lucie got me. She got all of us.

Overnight we've gone from little more than a trace of snow to 2 inches and still climbing in JC. Roads with the exception of main thoroughfares have gone white but the plows are starting to catch-up. I have no morning update for Honaker but as of midnight 1.8 inches had accumulated on the deck so I imagine things are looking fluffy back in SWVA to say the least.

Downslope heating from the blue ridge this season has been an experience. Grass has been green since 10AM in downtown Johnson City. Precip was a fine mist between 12-3 but we're finally back to getting flakes.

Interesting clouds in JC this evening. Maybe it's a sign

I don't trust rain measurements on my weather station but it's showing 2.51 inches.

The primary axis of precip is very stubborn. About 50 miles south of short range models and lifting at a snails pace. Quite a gully washer. The longer it drags the less of a reprieve until the cold front arcs the line of precip back over. Not looking good.

In what can be described as a massive overperformance temperatures have stayed under forecast with noon sitting at 33 in Honaker with very wet flakes falling. Nearly 5 inches of snow at 2100ft has fallen since the early morning hours compacting to 4 inches. (image and measurements compliments of my sister) Unfortunately, I'm missing this one sitting in JC enjoying a nice cold drizzle.

Big flakes falling at moderate to high rates. The previous snowpack partially survived and is being built upon again! Thus far it seems the upgrade to WSW was locally justified. 29.5F / 27DP

This is a question better suited for carver but I think a big factor in it (not all) comes down to bad luck over the past decade. One factor that can limit systems is increased distance from the gulf and maybe some slight rain shadowing from the blue ridge. That ignores generally more favorable historic climatology overall though. As for the models I don't know if it's recency bias but they do seem to provide more amped solutions than reality. (though part of that is the illusion of attributing all snowfall as accumulation which doesn't account for mixing, compression, and surface melt.)

Strong snow showers have returned this morning, conditions remain ideal with a temp of 26 and dp of 22. Visibility is down to half a mile which I'd consider moderate. The status of the road has been an ongoing battle all night with it starting to turn white again. The trucks will be back in force soon hopefully. No measurements yet but all spots are north of 6inches deep I'd estimate.

It's currently 27.1 with a dp of 24.4. The day ended with a total of 2.7 inches. Since then a final 0.1 inches have slipped to the surface. It would be fair to consider the event here an underperformance though not quite a bust as the storm had strong effects on travel and had built upon the last storm. I suspect some NW flakes may have something to say about it later tonight or tomorrow but as of the last hour it's been drizzling. Not even 37 N was completely safe from the WAA haha. The primary issue was the weak precip shield whether it was lack of moisture or limited lift. The day was beautiful and with this final glaze the half foot snowpack will only become more resilient. It's been fun seeing the results of this one.

It's been a steady battle. Snow accumulation stands at roughly 2.5 inches as of now

How's the new wave looking Tri-Folks?