the_other_guy

It’s an odd leaf change as well… Particularly in warmer areas like the city. I notice a lot of the leaves have just dried up and started falling off the trees with out ever going through a color transformation. Almost all of the maples on my parents block in Queens are just dried up leaves.

The problem is, historically, if you’re dealing with a very warm fall… And this is almost like an El Niño fall… You’re going to get a crappy Winter if you like winter. Temperature wise, the best thing that could happen is in November at or slightly below normal. But if we’re shooting for 72 next week… And I think those are usually extreme (on the warm side) this far out…You could start to see a clearer picture of where we’re headed

It came out of nowhere! Like a gust front…But its still October

Unforecasted rain in the LHV!

Actually warm in the sun! 62F

Brutal wind, heavy rain and freezing temperatures in southern Westchester this midday Saturday. And the NWS and forecasters wonder why an entire city ignored warnings for IDA.

Yosemite on arrival into SFO. Snow line from storm just to the west. Sierras covered very nicely from the event at higher altitudes

Inbound to EWR. On time. Rain stopped. SW winds at 10 knots at the moment. They even turned the airport around to land on the 22s. Not anything like the aviation forecast from this morning…happily

Lots of color in westchester. I am imagining they are just at or past peak? Share pics!

42F Coldest night so far Of course weeklies long range aren’t reliable… The thing that I’m sure a lot of posters find frustrating is that many of us take the warm weeklies and hang onto them like they’re gospel, but when we see long range cold, we dismiss it as unreliable. Food for thought on an early Sunday…

yeah some variation depending on location in region. I don’t see any air besides normal or above normal. Maybe slightly below monday and tues.

Normal high today is 60 Give or take a degree or two depending on what part of the region you’re in Just for perspective…

Who would ever make a call for November in New York City to be snowy? As someone above pointed out it’s happened a few times AND almost always leads to a nearly snowless winter to follow. As another poster mentioned, a warm Sept Oct and Nov is almost always a sign of a warm winter. In the next 3-4 weeks you will know if winter is going to arrive or if we have to hope for small-ball, pattern, one-off snow events like Feb 2014 or Feb 95

Correct. The guys glossing it over by saying every winter is above normal are missing the point. using the new baseline, it still would be a warmer than normal winter. Lets see what November brings. This week is shot again. Back above normal already, 80 tomorrow, 70s through Friday. It doesn’t signal a cool down or a pattern change, but rather a transient cool shot. Let’s see how we do early next week. If late next week starts to look like 70 again, you know what we are dealing with…and it isnt good

Next sunday-tuesday

Only 57F at noon. 49F at 8am

We lived on the Long Island sound since 1986… That is the only time we ever saw that

I take it back! Cleared and gorgeous!

This cool down is down to 3 days. That is the funny thing after all that. Tues thru Friday look down right warm

Going to under perform today temp wise with these clouds. Also under performed yesterday, vs forecasts on this forum. Supposed to be widespread 80s right? Not that it really matters… it’s warm

I haven’t put them away at all! New climate aint all bad

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking too. We’ve seen this episode before. Warm oct-cold 6 weeks to start nov-warm up just in time for mid december.

It’s interesting if this happens it would be exactly as AccuWeather or the weather channel ( i can’t remember) Predicted in the seasonal forecast…Which I usually don’t give too much credence

There is nothing uncomfortable about this day. Spectacular early September day 77F

61F Dense Fog starting to break. Another hour at most