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mikem81

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Everything posted by mikem81

  1. mikem81
    I am not following anyone who think this is a storm for our area. I don’t even see any short term models disagreeing with the globals unless it’s over a half inch or zero. I really hope I am wrong but no model shows snow in Chicago today and nothing showing snow in NYC tomorrow other than virga right now. Hope the models are wrong but we should focus on next weekend
  2. mikem81
    fwiw sREF about 25-30 miles north at 21Z from 15Z
  3. mikem81
    Well see if NAM follows suit. NYC area needs a 50 mile shift at the 18Z and 0Z models to just stay in the game for the last minute north bumps tomorrow and sunday as inside 48 hours anything will be 25 miles or less
  4. mikem81
    If someone can show the timing and location of the confluence we should be watching for in terms of trends that would be great. Some analysis
  5. mikem81
    I think we are looking at the piece of energy near Montreal. Notice the difference between the GFS and Euro with the strength and location which shreds or doesnt
  6. mikem81
    Can you post it on the H5 map?
  7. mikem81
    What hours is this lobe forming and what do we look for in coming runs? we need some more analysis as opposed to wishful thinking
  8. mikem81
    Nope. Slower
  9. mikem81
    Never give up before the NAM is even in range...
  10. mikem81
    WFIW, the JMA at 72 also looks better than its prior run (which was already decent) with higher heights out east in front of the storm
  11. mikem81
    This was a good start to the 12Z lineup keeping in mind the normal trend on SWFE events is a north bump inside of 72 hours. I would want to be around 50 miles north of the heaviest snow axis at this point.
  12. mikem81
    I have no idea how this will play out but the ICON actually makes perfect sense. There is an area of Warm air advection precip that thumps the northern precip shield while a coastal takes over. There is a dry slot in between. Classis SWFE precip shield. Its just a matter of where the WAA makes it up to and where and when the coastal moves the energy to the coast.
  13. mikem81
    NAM can start to be used out to 60 hours or so for trends. Looks like tronger vort in the central US and less confluence than 6Z in SE canada
  14. mikem81
    Typically SWFE tend to amp up as they get closer. We actually fear this as it means mix to rain for our area and snow for New England. This is a rare event where we are hoping for the historic trend to occur and amp this just enough to get some good precipitation into our area with little fear precipitation type issues
  15. mikem81
    I dont think there will be more clarity on this until tomorrow afternoon when the energy is closer to the NW coast and the LP block starts to form in a certain spot in SE canada
  16. mikem81
    The NAM is not happening. Maybe SE MASS gets 3-6 inches. Maybe. Radar does not support the NAM at all.
  17. mikem81
    Did any of the models have the intense precip coming onshore now in SNJ?
  18. mikem81
    https://weather.cod.edu/ My favorite auto refresh radar site is down. Anyone with other good ones?
  19. mikem81
    NAM slightly north. Looks like .3-.4 of precip by 12Z tomorrow from SW to NE in NYC metro
  20. mikem81
    In that case look at the current radar. The northern bands are much further east of the southern part of the storm... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-northeast-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  21. mikem81
    It snows much longer up in the NYC area (at least on the models) based on the configuration of the precip shield..
  22. mikem81
  23. mikem81
    Similar amounts here in Garden City. Should finish between 6 and 7 depending on this last band.
  24. mikem81
    Someone in Suffolk may get a foot. will be much closer to 6 inches in Nassau
  25. mikem81
    Its my go to radar.. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DIX-N0Q-1-12-100-usa-rad
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