mikem81

EURO looks much better to me than last few runs

Next week's storm has a much different evolution than tomorrow's. It almost looks like a redeveloping clipper that comes out of canada in front of the artic front. It also has a much colder airmass in front of it than today's. Who knows what it will bring.

I am very confused by the mood in here. The next 2 weeks look great after the Friday rainstorm. the Canadian OP has a cutter next week. The ensembles and GFS/Euro OP all look good with plenty of coastal potential

well said. Ocean temp is at 51 at the station I usually use for my area (https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065) Winter threats are hard to even take seriously in NYC/LI until after 12/15 given the ocean temps. I would hate a perfect pattern in early December as we'd still have issues. I think people got excited by the early -AO/NAO where the reality is that we are finally entering a more workable time period starting next week. I would still keep an eye on the Friday storm given the block and the weird track but it was always a long shot for the metro

I know its the ICON, but watching a huge storm getting absolutely shredded to pieces is fascinating From this: to this:

ANYONE LOOKING AT LAST 2 RUNS OF THE CMC?

I prefer to see SST's below 50 in the NYC area before even following winter events unless the setup in perfect. Right now, SST around 52 25 miles south of JFK. The pattern being perfect is much better if its after 12/20

Take with the typical NAVY grain of salt, but noticeable this close to an event

Thought the GEPS was interesting in terms of track

Heavy now here down to 33

Anyone have good link to Radar. Some are down..

Its snowing here is SW Nassau. 34.7 degrees. was 36 an hour ago

32/14 right now. No way dew points for supposed to be this low now… seems like temps should fall into high 20s with steady precip unless winds really turn off ocean quickly

DP forecast is way off so far...

The NAM is known for insane shifts like this. Really just can’t take it seriously until it has 2-3 runs in a row of something similar

December is much more common for huge gradients on the city when the Atlantic is 55 degrees...

THE GFS has a colder look early on but the primary made in father north before the weak coastal. All comes down to where coastal pops up (delmarva or LI)...

Its very close....

versus

Thats looks like intense sleet for the metro....

Usually a HP sliding east of Maine into the Atlantic is the sign of no snow. I see a HP in perfect position on all the models here and hints at earlier coastal development...

A lot depends on how the storm tonight winds up into Canada and where it ends up bringing the confluence down into..

How is LGA higher than JFK???