larrye

So when is the consensus opinion on when the pattern changes and when we have the next real "threat"? I just looked at the 00z GFS 850 Temp/Precip and it kinda looks like nothing "coastal" (to my amateur eyes) in the longer term until maybe around 1/23 except inland runners. And I didn't check the upper air patterns at all. Thoughts?

Like I said, nothing wrong with posting any opinion ... snowy or not ... and why you have that opinion. I think it would just be appropriate to refrain from personalizing and from editorializing as a response to someone's opinion ... who may very well turn out to be right (or perhaps not).

It would be nice if those who hoping for more snow would refrain from chastising those who want to be realistic or perhaps even see more snow as unlikely. There is nothing wrong with wanting snow ... I think we all do to one degree or another and there is nothing wrong with having an opinion and stating it here with backup. But weather forecasting is not an exact science yet and there are always going to be those here with differing opinions because there is some subjectivity to all of this. I think it would be helpful to refrain from accusing those who don't see it as as snowy an event as being negative. In this case, it would appear that they turned out to be right.

It has a 931 next to it. I didn't mean to imply that it was 931mb.

You see the 931 Low? That's hundreds of miles off the coast of Cape Cod.

The benchmark? Try a few hundred miles off Cape Cod.

Exactly. Will there be some places that end up under a band a get a few inches? Yep. But it's 2PM. And it's looking more and more to me like if you want to accept reality, this was way overblown (probably because of the mishap last year where that major storm was underforecast in advance). And I'm not so sure the NWS has been "decent". They started out with 6"-12" north/northwest of NYC. Then 3"-6". They're still showing 5"-10" for northern Westchester. Depends upon how you define "decent".

And the same people always wishcast. Both are always represented here. What I'd like to know is where are the Mets (I'm clearly not one)? Are the pressures dropping off the coast? Why aren't we seeing the radar fill in with more QPF ... and why aren't we seeing the QPF expand to the west a bit before progressing eastward? That is what usually happens with a rapidly intensifying coastal storm. Unless I'm missing something, that's a pretty narrow "band" of QPF with lots of holes that haven't been backfilled.

Congrats on your retirement!

Large flakes moderate to heavy in Tarrytown. Seems to me sooner than expected. Don't know how long it will last, but ...

Snowing heavily now in Tarrytown. Streets and lawns covered. Was sleeting earlier up until about 30 minutes ago.

Snowing heavily now in Tarrytown. Streets and lawns covered. Was sleeting earlier up until about 30 minutes ago.

Thanks. Will hope that the airlines waive their change fees.

I am due to fly in to HPN around 7PM Wednesday. I presume from what I am seeing/reading that there is a high likelihood of impacts to travel?

Well, it will weaken ... but as to how much ... this may also not be the final track. You're absolutely right, but we don't yet know the amount of land interaction.

Anyone have any sense for what the patterns look like (at least for now) in the longer term ... out into week of 8/5 and 8/13? I am looking to plan a staycation and am just wondering if any particular week looks stormy/rainy vs. not.

Sounds like Upton has this starting as rain. Anyone have a gut feel as to the changover time Sunday afternoon/evening in the Metro Area?

Just changed over rather quickly to sleet after mixing for a few minutes in Tarrytown. Maybe got an inch of snow on the ground prior to changeover.

Just changed over rather quickly to sleet after mixing for a few minutes in Tarrytown. Maybe got an inch of snow on the ground prior to changeover.

Same here in Tarrytown. Snow, no mixing yet.

And others accused other posters of "throwing in the towel" too soon when they saw this as a likelihood a few days ago. Some people here need to stop wishcasting and if they do want to wishcast, go ahead and wishcast with some model or climatologic facts and move on ... without the editorial comments towards those who choose to go with what they feel is an accurate forecast (subject to change, of course) that might be light on snow. It's nice to be able to come here and just read and review the analysis from different people. Just my 2 cents.

It's just people reacting to what they see as the probabilities resulting from some degree of recent run-to-run consistency on the part of the GFS with some confirmation from the Euro 4 days out + a lack of blocking. We will have to see what the next day or so brings. I don't think people are completely giving up, just expressing what the current likely scenario might be.

Am I seeing a more zonal-looking flow in the upper levels starting around 8/8? Maybe shifting out of this pattern?

Forgive me ... but you're going to take a single 18Z run of the GFS for a storm that is easily a week+ out and say that it brings "fear into the eyes of the beholder"? If you look back far enough, you can find one model run where Gert was originally progged to ride up the east coast. Anything's possible, but I think you may be jumping the gun a bit.